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Note: I have been occasionally eyeballing this map since 2008 , and it does a good job of showing the overall trend of the economy (on an obvious lag). The economy is mixed to good, with 2/3rd of states expanding and 1/3rd of states slowing; Dropping from +96 to -22 is a substantial decrease, regardless of the high GDP print last Q.
redfin.com) Household mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP has been dropping since 2008. ft.com) Economy How's the consumer doing? newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media How is India's economy doing? (wsj.com) Housing Baby boomers are holding onto their large houses. Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter.
economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Kidding aside, Tim Harford reminds us that “In 2008, the consensus from forecasters was that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009.” ” Why? .”
The economy is slowing, and some states are doing great, some okay, some less so. Coincident Index by States (May 22, 2008). The specifics are noteworthy: -Over the past month, the indexes increased in 20 states, decreased in 22 states, and remained stable in eight, making a one-month diffusion index of -4.
In 2008, he received the George Polk Award for financial reporting. Chancellor notes “Interest rates are the most important signal in a market-based economy and the universal price affecting all others.” This week, we speak with financial historian Edward Chancellor. Rates reflect the price of time, which is scarce and has value.
If anything, it feels like the Fed wants to fight us, all of us, including the stock market and the economy. The Fed is actively trying to crash the stock market, break the housing market and push the economy into a recession. That’s not the case anymore. How do I know this? Wealth of Common Sense ). • Wealth of Common Sense ). •
The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy? A Wealth of Common Sense ) see also After a Terrible Year for Bonds, the Outlook Is Better : October capped their worst 12-month period ever, and the economy is under pressure. Will American music fans ever see anything better? ( New York Times ). • Economist ).
wsj.com) Don't fight the last war: this isn't 2008. theguardian.com) Economy The July Case-Shiller numbers shows a deceleration in home prices. (capitalspectator.com) Expected returns on bonds are finally attractive. awealthofcommonsense.com) Markets Lumber prices are back down to pre-pandemic levels. It depends.
ft.com) The amount of bank failures, measured by assets, rivals that of 2008. etftrends.com) Economy Is the U.S. (cnbc.com) The banking industry's 'crisis phase' may be over for now. nytimes.com) ETFs Model portfolio shifts can have a big effect on ETF flows. riaintel.com) The pace of ETF launches has slowed of late.
The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.
wsj.com) Economy The indicators that show a recession is creeping ever closer. capitalspectator.com) Today's housing market is way different than 2008. (insidehook.com) Farmland Midwest farmland prices jumped 20% in the past year. wealthmanagement.com) Farmers also saw rising costs in 2022.
2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.
Holding onto expectations of major shifts in key drivers of the markets and the economy – merely due to the changing of the calendar – is a carryover from the days when the calendar mattered much more. We can credit three elements for this massive outperformance: -Substantial prices resets: 57% in 2008-09 and 34% in 2020.
This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. The post- 2008-09 era saw wealth inequality, already substantial in the United States, explode. By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. It’s just off the peak, but still extremely high by any measure. I wrote a book about this).
Understanding How Does Stock Market Affect The Economy: The stock market and the economy are in a lot of talk in recent days. Seeing the market indexes declined by over 30% within a month, an obvious question among people is to understand how does the stock market affects the economy. How the Stock Market Affect the Economy?
Bad things happen when the economy contracts. Music] I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s edition of At The Money , we’re gonna discuss how to accurately identify– in advance, in real-time – when the economy is going into recession. Tell us what happens to the economy during a recession. Claudia Sahm : It varies.
And now the world’s 2nd largest economy is experiencing a fall after the covid lockdown recovery. And this is not the first time China’s economy has run into trouble. Remember the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2015 capital outflow scare? The post What’s Wrong with China’s Economy?
1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. 2008 0.1% -2.5% 2008 0.1% -2.5%
2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2022.
How much will the economy grow in 2025? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2024, and that a soft landing was the likely outcome. 2008 0.1% -2.5% Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2025 and a few predictions: Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Q4-over-Q4).
If the Fed starts cutting rates, like it did in 2020, or like it did in 2008, or like it did even in 2001, and it’s a panic. “ Oh my god, the economy’s falling apart, people are losing their jobs, we’ve got to start to stimulate the economy, we have to stop a recession.”
However, there are many other lesser-known indicators that can actually provide valuable insights and are helpful for the economy. Back in the autumn of 2001, he noticed that when the US economy was struggling due to the recession, lipstick sales were actually going up instead of down. Keep reading to find out what they are!
ft.com) Economy Some good economic news is currently bad news for the market (tker.co) The 2022 housing market is light years apart from 2008. (theinformation.com) The new Apple ($AAPL) Watch Ultra is a beast. theverge.com) Microsoft ($MSFT) is an investor in CloudKitchens.
readthegeneralist.com) Economy Jobless claims have stopped going up. bonddad.blogspot.com) Why the current housing market is nothing like 2008. (huddleup.substack.com) Chelsea's new owners are spending freely on talent. ft.com) Barcelona FC is under real financial pressure. pragcap.com) Housing are still selling quickly.
The explosive growth of the gig economy is one of the most important labor-market trends to emerge since the 2008 financial crisis. Companies offering ride-sharing, do-it-yourself property rentals and a host of other services have upended traditional sectors.
(calculatedriskblog.com) There is a big difference between today's housing market and that of 2008. papers.ssrn.com) Economy Ben Carlson, "The Fed sounds serious about hitting its 2% target but it’s likely not going to happen overnight." wsj.com) Older Americans are increasingly at-risk of homelessness.
axios.com) Mortgage rates are at their highest level since October 2008. finance.yahoo.com) Economy Auto loan delinquencies are on the rise. (citywireusa.com) Women are still not making much headway in the asset management business. ft.com) Mortgages Mortgage lenders are laying off workers in the face of falling volume.
Rest of World ) • The incredible American consumer : The biggest driver of the surprisingly resilient US economy has been the ability and willingness of Americans to shrug off the bad vibes and buy “everything that isn’t nailed down”, as Chris Rupkey puts it. Now it’s coming for the world. in the first three months of 2023 to 1.7%
How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. 2008 0.1% -2.5% 2008 0.1% -2.5%
axios.com) Finance Why 2023 is not a replay of 2008-09. nytimes.com) Economy Still no sign of a turn in weekly initial unemployment claims. (investmenttalk.substack.com) Google Cloud is shifting its customer focus. theinformation.com) Office vacancies rates are not improving. ritholtz.com) Credit Suisse is not Silicon Valley Bank.
economy could be about to tip into a recession, following Tuesday’s data which revealed the red-hot labor market is finally loosening up. That occurred as the 2-year Treasury yield experienced its biggest-monthly plunge since January 2008, and the 10-year BX:TMUBMUSD10Y had its largest monthly drop since March 2020. in New York. “It
Jim Bianco : Coming out of the financial crisis in 2008. One of the reasons that the Fed wanted to put rates at zero and push all that money in the risk markets was the psyche coming out of 2008 was people were afraid. And without that, you know, investment in the economy, we weren’t going to get the economy forward.
Yields that skyrocket too fast and too high could possibly send the economy into a recession. Most did not anticipate the bond reversal, which comes after years of stability built by the Fed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, even after the Fed poured enormous amounts of money into the company during the pandemic.
Add in the well documented inventory issues and you have a macro landscape that is very different from 2008. On the other hand, while this might not be 2008 it’s hard to see a continued housing boom given the low demand due to unusually high mortgage rates. It’s not a matter of if in my view, but when.
NOW 2016 | Energy, Money and the New World Economy achen Thu, 06/23/2016 - 10:27 The benefits to the U.S. economy since 2008. economy since 2008. oil output nearly doubled from 2008 until 2015, and production now exceeds that of every member of OPEC except Saudi Arabia. Moreover, U.S.
NOW 2016 | Energy, Money and the New World Economy. economy since 2008. economy since 2008. oil output nearly doubled from 2008 until 2015, and production now exceeds that of every member of OPEC except Saudi Arabia. Oil prices peaked at $147 per barrel in the summer of 2008. Thu, 06/23/2016 - 10:27.
On one side you have optimists who have been saying that the US economy remains robust and on the other side you have pessimists who are worried about recession and a potential 2008 scenario. In our view we’re still in the “muddle through” camp as it pertains to the economy.
Since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008-09, the income portion of portfolios has been almost an afterthought. Your checking and savings accounts earned less than 30bps; so too did the cash sitting in your brokerage account. Equities did well, averaging ~14% during the 2010s, but Bonds, not so much.
The 2022 economy has broken multiple records, first, with the highest inflation rate in 40 years, and now, the highest federal reserve interest rates since 2008. [1] The future of the economy in relation to inflation and interest rates is unknown. 1] [link]. [2] 2] [link]. [3] 3] [link]. [4] 4] [link]. [5] 5] [link]. [6]
data showed the economy and labor market remaining strong despite the Federal Reserve’s series of rate hikes. New York time and on track for its highest closing level since mid-December of 2008, when it reached 2.036%, according to Tradeweb. The 5-year TIPS rate was 2.007% as of 10:30 a.m.
But this chart is interesting because the discrepancy has a fundamental impact on the future of home prices and the economy. In fact, we’ve been vocal that this isn’t a repeat of 2008. People have to live somewhere. And they can either rent or buy. I don’t intend to sound alarmist.
The top spot belongs to the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse.) So, what does all of that mean for your money, and the economy? Two major banks, the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, closed within a couple days of each other, marking the second and third largest bank failures in U.S.
In response to the 2008 stock market and real estate crash, the Federal Reserve stimulated the economy by reducing interest rates to (almost) zero under its zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP). It “printed money” that amazingly did not bring serious inflation, yet.
The strength of the global economy is a big question this week and next as industrials and technology companies gear up to report earnings. With greater exposure to international markets, their performance will be a good guidepost for how the global economy is doing compared to the U.S.
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