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The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy? A Wealth of Common Sense ) see also After a Terrible Year for Bonds, the Outlook Is Better : October capped their worst 12-month period ever, and the economy is under pressure. Yet the fundamental math of bond returns bodes well for 2023, our columnist says. (
The maths are exactly the same. These sorts of math problems are the focus of this week’s TBL. Math Problems As this TBL goes live, just 16 games and one day of the NCAA Tournament are in the books, yet my bracket is a mess. We notice the unlikelihood of 100 in a row because of the pattern. Thanks for reading. quintillion.
But this chart is interesting because the discrepancy has a fundamental impact on the future of home prices and the economy. In fact, we’ve been vocal that this isn’t a repeat of 2008. And that’s where the math on renting comes into play. People have to live somewhere. And they can either rent or buy.
Top seeds have only lost to 16 seeds twice in the seeded era – since 1979 – and both occurrences are recent (that said, 2008 was the only year all four top seeds made the Final Four). Motoyuki Mabuchi went all-in with four aces in the main event hand of the 2008 World Series of Poker but lost to Justin Phillips’ royal flush.
And he’s really moving the needle in terms of having people take control of their own financial life in a way that benefits not just them but the entire economy and all of society. They’re an underground economy because they don’t trust the mainstream economy. These are not dumb people. RITHOLTZ: Right.
RIEDER: — there was — and then, you know, punctuating with obviously 2008. I try to analyze the economy from the top. the economy is stabilizing, China is growing. and maybe the economy is coming off, the central bank, not in ‘23, but will start to ease. The economy slows and you come down the other side.
I led the Union Square Ventures investment in Etsy, I became a venture partner for that, and then became a GP in the 2008 fund. And you know, the only thing math works on recognition by peers, and there’s some prizes. And I believe we need to bring that type of model to many, many more parts of the economy and parts of activity.
And I did the math, and I think at that point in time, roughly speaking, assets in ETS were roughly just 10 percent, 12 percent of assets in mutual funds and I was pretty convinced that that number was to increase significantly. Think about the two founders of Global X, Bruno and Jose, they set up Global X in 2008. BERRUGA: Exactly.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. There’s a continual, the economy continues to grow. It goes so far. Did you give me cash?
One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics. So people really ask you, you take French and can you do math. Two reasons.
Duke math professor Jonathan Mattingly claimed the average college basketball fan has a far better chance of achieving bracket perfection than one in 9.2 Motoyuki Mabuchi went all-in with four aces in the main event game of the 2008 World Series of Poker but lost to Justin Phillips’ royal flush. quintillion.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. I could maybe flip that around a little bit since I think particularly post 2008, 2009, the quality style of investing has become a lot more popular.
And just to amplify everything even further, China has launched a batshit crazy (and medically impossible) “zero covid” policy, locking down hundreds of millions of its own people who can no longer produce or export the things that the rest of the world’s economy had grown to rely upon. the current blowup) -20% so far What’s your guess?
RITHOLTZ: Why is it not surprising that a math nerd is also a placekicker? Chattanooga is a fascinating city, really steeped in some rich history, but also a city that faces some challenges as they grow from a very small city to a more significant city in the U.S. And many of those gentlemen have gone on to do incredible things as well.
It’s now up 35 percent since the SVB collapse, and the crypto faithful say it’s just more proof that the lack of trust in government institutions that led to Bitcoin’s birth following the 2008 financial crisis is alive and well. MIT Technology Review ) • How the World Is Spending $1.1 MIT Technology Review ) • How the World Is Spending $1.1
But it was — on the other hand, it was just a great place, well, first to try it but the second thing is when 2008 came along, it was one of the few places that we’re making money. But it just didn’t become a great success. RITHOLTZ: Just not a great fit. ILMANEN: Yes. Bonds are the most expensive. RITHOLTZ: Right.
My family and I moved to McLean, Virginia in, in 2008. They 00:38:39 [Speaker Changed] Price insensitive, they 00:38:41 [Speaker Changed] Right, they cared what the lower mortgage rate did to the economy. And I was always good at math and, and I had been writing code since I was in the sixth grade.
I’d been ranked i i back in the seventies, if you can do the math. Your real business is having the best perspective of what is happening this moment in the economy. So, so let’s talk a little bit about the state of the economy today. So at that point, I had a pretty big career. Your side hustle. Really interesting.
I would say the thing that connects them is just voracious curiosity about the world of politics and, you know, economies and trying to make sense out of it. I had my first child in June of 2008. Now, the first half of 2008, I was doing pretty well in the fund. I bought Priceline on November 1st, 2008. Oh, really?
And then, you know, at some point, well, I went to grad school because I graduated college in 2008, and was shockingly enough, yeah, having trouble getting a newsroom job. And it was day by day from the seat of, it was the month that the economy shut down. And I’d worked with lots of colleagues around the newsroom.
This summer’s economy is defying the odds. New York Times ) • Bond Yield Hits Highest Since 2008, Adding Pressure to Borrowing Costs : Bets that interest rates will fall have suppressed 10-year yields for most of 2023, but analysts warn that may be changing. My morning train WFH reads: • What recession?
So when I was at this very fancy private school that I was at as a kid, I did math because it gave me a huge amount of free time to do the things I really cared about. But when I got to Cambridge, you know, the math was sort of serious there. So, you know, I took my math into statistics and things. Am I getting right?
And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting. But it, it, summer of 2008, as you can imagine, was a really interesting time, particularly for the convertible bond desk because we were the busiest desk. Do we invest in emerging market countries because their economies are growing?
Sri Thiruvadanthai made the astute observation that "even if pensions had put all their money in stocks at the end of 2008, it wouldn't have made much difference to their funding status." The Atlantic asks Are Stock Buybacks Starving the Economy ? These sort of numbers will always grind higher as the economy grows over time.
The economy, the markets, and the world-at-large provide unlimited fodder for them. That’s why the markets are much more of a mind game than a math game. And that’s why markets will always be exceedingly hard, even when the math seems easy or the future seems certain. ” Nobody does. And lots of surprises.
An economy does better if the most people are prosperous, right? MORGENSON: It stopped outperforming in like the mid-2000s or towards 2008. MORGENSON: I just don’t think it’s a good thing to have this coterie of extreme, extreme wealth at the top of the pyramid. I mean, it’s just not healthy.
Colin Camerer : So I, some of it was when I was in college at Johns Hopkins, I, I studied physics and math. And there was people, Physics didn’t have, people, psychology didn’t have math, economics was kind of the right mix. The math doesn’t math. That was too abstract. Yeah, I’m gonna vote.
In the last 10 years (2008 through 2017), Berkshire’s shareholders’ equity per share and share price grew at 10.5% Buffett noted that the math of the buyback would get even better if Apple’s shares went down (but not its intrinsic value), something people often misunderstand. equity market. annually, respectively, compared with 8.5%
In the last 10 years (2008 through 2017), Berkshire’s shareholders’ equity per share and share price grew at 10.5% Buffett noted that the math of the buyback would get even better if Apple’s shares went down (but not its intrinsic value), something people often misunderstand. equity market. annually, respectively, compared with 8.5%
Simultaneously with sending those to my editor, an email arrives asking: “ If the economy is so robust, how do you explain all of these restaurant closings ?!” Even an accurate list of closures tells you little about the state of the economy. And she has no evidence that student loan forgiveness ruins the economy.
IBM Stock Buybacks since 2008 – Do the Math. However, the bigger issue is that stock buybacks have their roots in a deeper problem, stock option grants. But that’s another whole can of worms. I’ve been a long outspoken critic against stock buybacks for much of my career.
You’re doing a lot of math in your head on the Fly. I’m doing, I’m doing an awful lot of math in my head on the fly. They didn’t make it through 2008. And you think it had a positive impact on the economy? 01:18:26 [Speaker Changed] I think it’s had a positive impact on the economy.
So, I did the math, 20 million times a hundred. So, let me just repeat the math. And so, again, I went through this simple math. he — Putin is trying to distract the Russian populace from the state of their economy and all the corruption that’s taking place. How many do you have in your fleet?
A good example of that is like you take something from a cognitive reflection testy or something — like — I’ll make it real simple so we don’t have to like do the weird math on this. MCRANEY: Maybe like 2008, 2007, around there. RITHOLTZ: Right. RITHOLTZ: Okay. is a laggard. MCRANEY: Yes.
So if you think the economy’s going to go sour and then you learn that’s not true, you might well be extremely credulous, meaning willing to believe the happy thing, even though it’s disconfirming of your belief. What is the direction of the economy? Are we on the right track or on the wrong track?”
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