The Irrelevant Investor

DECEMBER 24, 2017

By Ben Carlson I do the math, they do the physics. By Jeremy Schwartz Prudent lending was the concern in 1907; moral hazard was the concern in 2008. Max Exuberance and a herd mentality can exist without passive management present.

Math 52

Math Financial Advisor Management Investing 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 8, 2023

That is difficult to pull off but if you do the math on that it shows long term outperformance. As bad as 2008 was, we're 3x from there. He makes a good point about not relying solely on math to assess markets and portfolio construction, that the psychology of markets is important too.

Asset Allocation 74

Asset Allocation Math Portfolio Assets 74

The Better Letter

MARCH 18, 2025

Top seeds have only lost to 16 seeds twice in the seeded era – since 1979 – and both occurrences are recent (that said, 2008 was the only year all four top seeds made the Final Four). Motoyuki Mabuchi went all-in with four aces in the main event hand of the 2008 World Series of Poker but lost to Justin Phillips’ royal flush.

Numbers 75

Numbers Marketing Marketing Medicine 75

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 11, 2024

The way portable used to primarily be implemented was to leverage up with correlated assets and it ended up going very badly in 2008 when equities dropped 40%. The risk to 40% or 30% of managed futures via leverage is that in a year like 2008, instead of going up like they "should," managed futures drops 15 or 20%.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Management Math Taxes 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 10, 2023

As a matter of math, it cannot repeat the run from 8.5% Using Vanguard funds as proxies, VFINX for domestic equities and VGTSX for international equities, an investor who retired with $1 million on Dec 31, 2007 who immediately took out their 4% for 2008 would have had $576,000 at the end of 2008. in November.

Portfolio 74

Portfolio Math Assets Retirement 74

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 8, 2023

The way the math works, a 67% allocation to NTSX replicates 100% into a 60/40 portfolio which leaves 33% left over to do something. You can see the backtest proxy of RSBT has a slightly higher CAGR very similar standard deviation but a much better worst year which was back in 2008.

Portfolio 40

Portfolio Math Management Investing 40

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

I led the Union Square Ventures investment in Etsy, I became a venture partner for that, and then became a GP in the 2008 fund. And you know, the only thing math works on recognition by peers, and there’s some prizes. WENGER: Because I knew both Brad and Fred really well, and so it was kind of a natural thing to do.

Valuation 305

Valuation Investing Investments Engineering 305

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics. So people really ask you, you take French and can you do math. Two reasons.

Assets 147

Assets Management Investing Investments 147

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. I could maybe flip that around a little bit since I think particularly post 2008, 2009, the quality style of investing has become a lot more popular.

Valuation 130

Valuation Investing Investments Assets 130

The Better Letter

MARCH 14, 2024

Duke math professor Jonathan Mattingly claimed the average college basketball fan has a far better chance of achieving bracket perfection than one in 9.2 Motoyuki Mabuchi went all-in with four aces in the main event game of the 2008 World Series of Poker but lost to Justin Phillips’ royal flush. quintillion.

Numbers 84

Numbers Medicine Math Marketing 84

The Big Picture

MAY 30, 2023

BRYANT: So money, unlike math, money is highly emotional. I mean, there’s 50,000 kids in the Atlanta public school system, so you can do the math there. I believe I love math because it doesn’t have an opinion, that’s a Melody Hobson quote. This was, so you had the 2008, 2009 economic crisis.

Banking 147

Banking Economics Business Planning Economy 147

The Big Picture

JANUARY 9, 2024

So like a component of it was like the standard derivatives math, right? And so like, you know, I got there and I learned derivatives math, right? And it stopped in like September of 2008. It was derivatives math, it was like working with the traders on like risk management. And so for six months there were no deal.

Retail 130

Retail Banking Math Management 130

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 6, 2022

And I did the math, and I think at that point in time, roughly speaking, assets in ETS were roughly just 10 percent, 12 percent of assets in mutual funds and I was pretty convinced that that number was to increase significantly. Think about the two founders of Global X, Bruno and Jose, they set up Global X in 2008. BERRUGA: Exactly.

Clients 162

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 20, 2024

00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. In 2008, we didn’t have Uber, right? Very few people want to quote unquote, get onto a smartphone.

Assets 173

Assets Management Portfolio Marketing 173

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2023

It started on January 1 of 2008. SEIDES: In Warren’s 2008 annual letter, I think it was 2008, he made a statement. RITHOLTZ: So hold the duration risk aside with those two, but just for an investor in treasuries, I know you’ve done the math before. SEIDES: That’s right. So that’s how it came about.

Management 130

Management Investing Investments Government 130

The Better Letter

FEBRUARY 8, 2024

Subscribe now Share The Better Letter Get more from Bob Seawright in the Substack app Available for iOS and Android Get the app TRIGGER WARNING: I’m going to do some sports math nerding-out this week. If that isn’t your cup of tea, I understand. This TBL is about football, but I really love to nerd-out over baseball.

Numbers 93

Numbers Education Management Math 93

Mr. Money Mustache

MAY 20, 2022

It’s fun math – a 20% drop in prices means you get 25% more shares for your dollar, and a 50% drop means twice as many , or 100% more shares per dollar invested.). the current blowup) -20% so far What’s your guess? In today’s market, you are getting about 25% more shares for each dollar that you invest.

Marketing 53

Marketing Marketing Retirement Investing 53

Good Financial Cents

APRIL 14, 2023

It didn’t happen overnight for me, but then few blogging resources were available when I started out in 2008. But a major in any common subject, particularly math or science, combined with above-average command of the subject matter are more important. But like everything else, you can learn how to blog.

Accounting 91

Accounting Communication Investing Investments 91

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

RITHOLTZ: Why is it not surprising that a math nerd is also a placekicker? But really, even that experience was about building great friends that I played football with. And many of those gentlemen have gone on to do incredible things as well. It seems to be like the field goal seems to be one of the most mathematical parts of football.

Recruitment 147

Recruitment Engineering Banking Investing 147

The Big Picture

APRIL 29, 2023

It’s now up 35 percent since the SVB collapse, and the crypto faithful say it’s just more proof that the lack of trust in government institutions that led to Bitcoin’s birth following the 2008 financial crisis is alive and well. MIT Technology Review ) • How the World Is Spending $1.1

Math 277

Math License Startup Government 277

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

RIEDER: — there was — and then, you know, punctuating with obviously 2008. How are we doing in literacy versus math versus science? And then in ‘94 and ’98, you know, all had a different stream to 2002. By the way, it seemed like every four years — RITHOLTZ: Right. Where are we?

Economy 147

Economy Numbers Marketing Marketing 147

The Better Letter

OCTOBER 20, 2022

To do math, neither maturity nor knowledge of human nature and experience are required. Back in 2008, then Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson noted that the company spends a billion dollars a day to run the business. Make sure you’ve got your math correct. The problem is corporate greed, collusion & profiteering.

Math 81

Math Numbers Banking Medical 81

The Big Picture

MARCH 27, 2023

MIELLE: After 2008? RITHOLTZ: 2008, ’09. MIELLE: And then the biggest luck of it all, is I joined Canyon in the ‘90s and there was a tsunami that literally lifted all waves of hedge funds from ‘90 to 2008 and even beyond. I guess other than Lehman Brothers, most of them were either rescued or absorbed into another entity.

Assets 285

Assets Investing Investments Management 285

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 1, 2024

In 2008, S&P+PRPFX did worse than 60/40 by about 300 basis points and in 2022 it did better by about 350 basis points. The 75/50 captures 75% of the upside with only 50% of the downside, the math on that works out favorably over the long term. The two are pretty close. I have 75/50 in mind as sort of a benchmark.

Portfolio 40

Portfolio Math Assets Taxes 40

The Big Picture

JULY 19, 2022

But it was — on the other hand, it was just a great place, well, first to try it but the second thing is when 2008 came along, it was one of the few places that we’re making money. But it just didn’t become a great success. RITHOLTZ: Just not a great fit. ILMANEN: Yes. RITHOLTZ: Right. That makes a lot of sense.

Investing 130

Investing Investments Valuation Portfolio 130

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 21, 2023

I had my first child in June of 2008. Now, the first half of 2008, I was doing pretty well in the fund. But of course, I didn’t know the world was gonna meltdown in 2008. I bought Priceline on November 1st, 2008. And we would go on to sell that business to Microsoft in 2008. So here’s the math, Barry.

Investing 246

Investing Investments Startup Accounting 246

The Big Picture

MARCH 12, 2024

My family and I moved to McLean, Virginia in, in 2008. And I was always good at math and, and I had been writing code since I was in the sixth grade. Who, who, who, who else did you speak to when you were there? What, so what was that experience like? Sean Dobson : I lived in Washington, DC for five years.

Banking 147

Banking Marketing Marketing Investing 147

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. It’s just not smart on a math basis to do that. And then what happened in, in 2008? And I just caught the bug. Become options market makers.

Portfolio 147

Portfolio Management Marketing Marketing 147

The Big Picture

AUGUST 17, 2023

New York Times ) • Bond Yield Hits Highest Since 2008, Adding Pressure to Borrowing Costs : Bets that interest rates will fall have suppressed 10-year yields for most of 2023, but analysts warn that may be changing.

Insurance 246

Insurance Math Taxes Economy 246

The Big Picture

JULY 31, 2023

And then, you know, at some point, well, I went to grad school because I graduated college in 2008, and was shockingly enough, yeah, having trouble getting a newsroom job. I mean, you’re talking about, I don’t, I could do the math, it’s like a 10,000% return in like three weeks. And that’s sort of the math.

Retail 130

Retail Government Economy Economics 130

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 17, 2025

And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting. But it, it, summer of 2008, as you can imagine, was a really interesting time, particularly for the convertible bond desk because we were the busiest desk. 00:07:26 And then I moved on to the equities team afterwards. And I just learned a tremendous amount.

Investing 147

Investing Investments Economics Management 147

The Big Picture

APRIL 2, 2024

So when I was at this very fancy private school that I was at as a kid, I did math because it gave me a huge amount of free time to do the things I really cared about. But when I got to Cambridge, you know, the math was sort of serious there. So, you know, I took my math into statistics and things. Am I getting right?

Healthcare 147

Healthcare Medicine Economics Numbers 147

The Irrelevant Investor

AUGUST 9, 2018

Sri Thiruvadanthai made the astute observation that "even if pensions had put all their money in stocks at the end of 2008, it wouldn't have made much difference to their funding status." If you're curious to learn how the math behind this, read this piece from Econompic. Not so fast.

Economics 52

Economics Investing Investments Distribution 52

The Big Picture

APRIL 8, 2024

I’d been ranked i i back in the seventies, if you can do the math. The last cycle, for example, it took 18 months from when the yield corps inverted to when the recession started in 2008, 18 months. Tell us a little bit about the plan for launching an independent economics research 00:09:15 [Speaker Changed] Shop.

Economy 147

Economy Clients Banking Economics 147

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 19, 2024

Colin Camerer : So I, some of it was when I was in college at Johns Hopkins, I, I studied physics and math. And there was people, Physics didn’t have, people, psychology didn’t have math, economics was kind of the right mix. The math doesn’t math. That was too abstract. Yeah, I’m gonna vote.

Economics 162

Economics Math Numbers Marketing 162

The Big Picture

JUNE 20, 2023

MORGENSON: It stopped outperforming in like the mid-2000s or towards 2008. So, it’s not one of these fuzzy math situations where you don’t really know what the value of the fund is because it’s got private companies in it that are being marked by individuals who have an ax to grind in the mark.

Insurance 147

Insurance Healthcare Retail Medicine 147

The Better Letter

JANUARY 11, 2024

That’s why the markets are much more of a mind game than a math game. And that’s why markets will always be exceedingly hard, even when the math seems easy or the future seems certain. He called the 2008-09 financial crisis but has kept calling for replays and kept being wrong. Stop with the math.`

Economy 97

Economy Economics Math Banking 97