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For many financial advisors, a core part of the retirement planning process involves simulating whether the client's assets will last through retirement. One way that advisors can help bridge this gap is by using Historical Market Visualization (HiMaV) as a more intuitive alternative for illustrating retirement income strategies.
In fact, we’ve been vocal that this isn’t a repeat of 2008. If you adjust it for only the working age and retired population then inventory is even higher. And that’s where the math on renting comes into play. I don’t intend to sound alarmist. Or, at least, that’s true at present.
That is difficult to pull off but if you do the math on that it shows long term outperformance. As bad as 2008 was, we're 3x from there. He makes a good point about not relying solely on math to assess markets and portfolio construction, that the psychology of markets is important too.
The way portable used to primarily be implemented was to leverage up with correlated assets and it ended up going very badly in 2008 when equities dropped 40%. The risk to 40% or 30% of managed futures via leverage is that in a year like 2008, instead of going up like they "should," managed futures drops 15 or 20%.
Even Mr. Money Mustache, as a person who retired 17 years ago, is still in this boat for the simple reason that my retirement income from dividends and hobby businesses is still greater than my annual living expenses (which still hover around $20,000 per year). 3) Okay, but I really am retired and trying to live off my investments now.
The way the math works, a 67% allocation to NTSX replicates 100% into a 60/40 portfolio which leaves 33% left over to do something. You can see the backtest proxy of RSBT has a slightly higher CAGR very similar standard deviation but a much better worst year which was back in 2008.
One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics. So people really ask you, you take French and can you do math. So I applied to Maryland State retirement.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. And that a bit of that cult, Dick and Ike are both retired now. And I very much get the sense he has no interest in retiring. Learn math, learn history.
It has to be such a different set, the retirement planning is different, the safety net is different. People in Spain when I was growing up in the ‘80s and ‘90s, they expect to just retire and have the government give them like a paycheck every month. So a phenomenal learning experience with both Jefferies and Morgan Stanley.
It started on January 1 of 2008. SEIDES: In Warren’s 2008 annual letter, I think it was 2008, he made a statement. RITHOLTZ: So hold the duration risk aside with those two, but just for an investor in treasuries, I know you’ve done the math before. SEIDES: That’s right. So that’s how it came about.
But it was — on the other hand, it was just a great place, well, first to try it but the second thing is when 2008 came along, it was one of the few places that we’re making money. But it just didn’t become a great success. RITHOLTZ: Just not a great fit. ILMANEN: Yes. RITHOLTZ: Right. That makes a lot of sense.
With more money at our disposal, we maxed out our retirement accounts and invest in real estate, while we travel 12 weeks annually.” – Holly Johnson, Freelance Writer and Blogger at ClubThrifty.com Holly has become so successful as a freelance writer that she now offers a course helping others succeed on the same path.
But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. And then when I left the journal for the first time in 2008, they said, well, who should we hire to replace you? I did it in 2008 in oh nine.
So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. And then I moved back to London at the end of 2008, which was a really interesting pivot. SALISBURY: Yes.
MIELLE: After 2008? RITHOLTZ: 2008, ’09. So you retire in 2018. MIELLE: And then the biggest luck of it all, is I joined Canyon in the ‘90s and there was a tsunami that literally lifted all waves of hedge funds from ‘90 to 2008 and even beyond. Tell us about that period. But it was not a liquidity issue. ’08
There was a lot of content from various places over the weekend about whether it is time to go back into bonds, what retired investors should do for yield and even whether retirees are better off going 100% into equities. As a matter of math, it cannot repeat the run from 8.5% Barron's also noted that 60/40 was up 9.6% in November.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. People earn wages, whether it’s a retirement account or a tax deferred account or just an investment account.
My dad was a naval officer who retired shortly before I was born. What did your dad retire from doing? He retired and went to work at the Library of Congress as personnel. RITHOLTZ: Why is it not surprising that a math nerd is also a placekicker? Tell us about those experiences. So my dad is actually from Mississippi.
In 2008, S&P+PRPFX did worse than 60/40 by about 300 basis points and in 2022 it did better by about 350 basis points. The 75/50 captures 75% of the upside with only 50% of the downside, the math on that works out favorably over the long term. The two are pretty close. I have 75/50 in mind as sort of a benchmark.
Subscribe now Share The Better Letter Get more from Bob Seawright in the Substack app Available for iOS and Android Get the app TRIGGER WARNING: I’m going to do some sports math nerding-out this week. Brady is now retired as a seven-time Super Bowl champion, five-time Super Bowl MVP, 15-time Pro Bowler, and three-time NFL MVP.
The median retirement account balance of people ages 56 to 61 is just $25,000. Whatever else happened, retired policemen and firefighters and teachers would be paid. workers participate in an employer-sponsored retirement plan. ( If you're curious to learn how the math behind this, read this piece from Econompic.
So, I did the math, 20 million times a hundred. So, let me just repeat the math. And so, again, I went through this simple math. And this guy, you know, there’s no mandatory retirement age for a federal judge and we got in front of this guy and he didn’t understand. How many do you have in your fleet?
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. It’s just not smart on a math basis to do that. And then what happened in, in 2008? And I just caught the bug. Become options market makers.
Ben Clymer took a buyout offer from UBS in 2008 right in the middle of the financial crisis and said, “I know what I’m going to do. 2008, you launched a blog after you leave UBS in the midst of the financial crisis. RITHOLTZ: Hey, in 2008, that was not nothing. I know a little bit about that. CLYMER: It started for fun.
I’d been ranked i i back in the seventies, if you can do the math. 00:19:54 [Speaker Changed] So you retired if it’s not working and you move on to the next that. The last cycle, for example, it took 18 months from when the yield corps inverted to when the recession started in 2008, 18 months.
MORGENSON: And so you have pensioners at Bristol-Myers or Lockheed or Coors is another who are really relying on private equity to do the right thing for their pensions going forward, for their retirement, for their payouts when they need them. So corporate pensions that gave a worker a reasonable shot at a prosperous retirement.
I went there because I was fearful that being a professor would be like retiring in your 20s. But we know, and this is what at least I wasn’t sufficiently alert to in 2008, that self-interested or malevolent types can use behavioral biases to manipulate people. SUNSTEIN: But by tradition, it is not just a lackey.
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