The Reformed Broker

FEBRUARY 7, 2023

” – George Soros, 2009 I’ve spent 25 years watching, trading and investing in the stock market. “When I see a bubble forming I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire. That is not irrational.” The repetition of patterns is amazing.

Investing 363

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 363

Wealth Management

MAY 26, 2023

Office REITs are trading at their lowest levels since 2009, reports Bloomberg. Crow Holdings formed a $2.6 billion joint venture focused on retail assets. These are some must reads from around the real estate investment world heading into the weekend.

Retail 299

Retail Assets Investments Investing 299

Calculated Risk

MAY 13, 2024

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. The dashed line is the April 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 316

Sales 316

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.83% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.95%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.55% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.57%). So, Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.

Portfolio 363

Portfolio 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.49% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.71%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.52% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.53%). So, Fannie is still working through a handful of poor performing loans from the bubble years.

Portfolio 361

Portfolio 361

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2022

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. The dashed line is the September 2022 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 350

Sales 350

Calculated Risk

APRIL 28, 2023

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.11% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.31%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.48% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.51%). So, Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.

Portfolio 358

Portfolio 358

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 30, 2023

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.49% are seriously delinquent (unchanged from 3.49%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.53% are seriously delinquent (up from 0.52%). So, Fannie is still working through a handful of poor performing loans from the bubble years.

Portfolio 355

Portfolio 355

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.71% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.83%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.53% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.55%). So, Fannie is still working through a handful of poor performing loans from the bubble years.

Portfolio 353

Portfolio 353

Calculated Risk

APRIL 25, 2023

months of supply in January 2009. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in March to 7.6 months from 8.4 months in February. The all-time record high was 12.2 The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

Sales 363

Sales 363

Calculated Risk

JUNE 27, 2023

months of supply in January 2009. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in May to 6.7 months from 7.6 months in April. The all-time record high was 12.2 The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020. This is above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

Sales 363

Sales 363

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2022

Public construction spending is 6% above the peak in March 2009. Residential (red) spending is 36% above the bubble peak (in nominal terms - not adjusted for inflation). Non-residential (blue) spending is 19% above the bubble era peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars). The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

360

360

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

Public construction spending is 9% above the peak in March 2009. Residential (red) spending is 35% above the bubble peak (in nominal terms - not adjusted for inflation). Non-residential (blue) spending is 24% above the bubble era peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars). The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

358

358

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

months of supply in January 2009. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in January to 7.9 months from 8.7 months in December. The all-time record high was 12.1 The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.

Sales 351

Sales 351

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2024

months of supply in January 2009. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in September to 7.6 months from 7.9 months in August. The all-time record high was 12.2 The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

Sales 311

Sales 311

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. The dashed line is the August 2023 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 340

Sales Marketing Marketing 340

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 9, 2022

Back in early 2009, I wrote a couple of posts arguing there would be an increase in auto sales - Vehicle Sales (Jan 2009) and Looking for the Sun (Feb 2009). This was an out-of-the-consensus call and helped me call the bottom for the US economy in mid-2009. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Sales 208

Sales Numbers Economy 208

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2022

For in depth description of these issues, see Jed Kolko's article from 2014 "Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data" Note: I was one of several people to question the change in the seasonal factor (here is a post in 2009 ) - and this led to S&P Case-Shiller questioning the seasonal factor too ( from April 2010 ).

Sales 355

Sales 355

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

months of supply in January 2009. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in August to 8.1 months from 10.4 months in July. The all-time record high was 12.1 The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020. The seasonally?

Sales 363

Sales 363

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 24, 2023

capitalspectator.com) The credit markets are very different than they were in 2009. (behaviouralinvestment.com) Why selling a stock is harder than buying. flyoverstocks.com) Bond investors are being given an opportunity to lock in 2% real yields. semafor.com) A wide range of outcomes is always on the table.

Math 278

Math Valuation Portfolio Investing 278

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

November 29, 2023) The Most Hated Rally in Wall Street History (October 8, 2009) Bull & Bear Markets The post All-Time Highs Are Historically Bullish appeared first on The Big Picture.

Economics 349

Economics Marketing Marketing Investing 349

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 31, 2022

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 4.11% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.45%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.60% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.63%). So, Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.

Portfolio 328

Portfolio 328

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 27, 2023

Way back in 2009, I pointed out that there are usually two bottoms for housing. Brief excerpt: I’ve heard some positive comments from a number of real estate agents in the last week about the existing home market. Activity is still down sharply year-over-year (YoY), but the YoY decline is getting smaller.

Sales 275

Sales Numbers Investing Investments 275

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 25, 2023

months of supply in January 2009. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in September to 6.9 months from 7.7 months in August. The all-time record high was 12.2 The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020. This is above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

Sales 326

Sales 326

Calculated Risk

JULY 26, 2022

months of supply in January 2009. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in June to 9.3 months from 8.4 months in May. The all-time record high was 12.1 The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020. The seasonally?

Sales 344

Sales 344

Calculated Risk

MAY 23, 2023

months of supply in January 2009. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in April to 7.6 months from 7.9 months in March. The all-time record high was 12.2 The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020. This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

Sales 319

Sales 319

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 23, 2022

months of supply in January 2009. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in November to 8.6 months from 9.3 months in October. The all-time record high was 12.1 The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.

Sales 341

Sales 341

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 26, 2024

months of supply in January 2009. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply was unchanged in January at 8.3 months from 8.3 months in December. The all-time record high was 12.2 The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

Sales 310

Sales 310

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

months of supply in January 2009. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply increased in August to 7.8 months from 7.0 months in July. The all-time record high was 12.2 The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020. This is above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

Sales 310

Sales 310

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

Monetary stimulus (ZIRP/QE) from 2009-2021. – Great Financial Crisis, March 2009 : The S&P 500 index made a generational low post-GFC on March 9, 2009, after having fallen 56.78%. Historically, SPX averages about 8% with dividends. Fiscal stimulus 2020-22. The next ~12 years saw gains of 608.5% through January 4, 2022.

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 25, 2024

months of supply in January 2009. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in December to 8.2 months from 8.8 months in November. The all-time record high was 12.2 The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

Sales 306

Sales 306

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 5, 2024

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. The dashed line is the July 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 485 thousand. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 233

Sales 233

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

The second table shows the change in construction and manufacturing payrolls starting in 2006.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2023

This was the largest increase for the full month of February since 2009’s 4.4% From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Large Increase in February Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 4.3% in February from January. from a year ago. year over year.

Consulting 245

Consulting Sales 245

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 7, 2023

Rents Continue to Decline More than Seasonally Normal • Moody's: National Multifamily Supply and Demand at Lowest Levels since 2009 • Question #8 for 2023: How much will Residential investment change in 2023? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2023? Question #9 for 2023: What will happen with house prices in 2023?

Sales 234

Sales Investing Investments Marketing 234

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 21, 2023

Markets The credit markets are very different than they were in 2009. semafor.com) Despite a slowdown, the warehouse industry is raising rents. wsj.com) IPOs Shopify ($SHOP) is a winner in the Klayvio ($KVYO) IPO. theinformation.com) Is the IPO window really that open?

Financial Advising 299

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 299

Calculated Risk

JUNE 2, 2023

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. The dashed line is the May 2023 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 246

Sales 246