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Low Stakes : The most successful market timers are often those people who do not have actual assets at risk. The dotcom top, the double bottom in Oct 02-March 03; the highs in 2007, the lows 2009. Catching the exact right moment when the crowd is mostly wrong goes against all of your instincts as a social primate.3 More on this later.
Sherman oversees and administers DoubleLine’s investment management subcommittee; serves as lead portfolio manager for multisector and derivative-based strategies; and is a member of the firm’s executive management and fixed-income asset allocation committees. He is host of the podcast The Sherman Show and a CFA charter holder.
The fund runs 15 ETFs and manages nearly 3 billion in assets. Listeners think to 2009, the bottom, at the bottom, um, stocks have almost been a 10 bagger. And the way math works, you end up with a stock that goes up a bunch. The last one of these they did for an asset manager had 5, 000 accounts.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. I could maybe flip that around a little bit since I think particularly post 2008, 2009, the quality style of investing has become a lot more popular.
And before that, Morgan Stanley, doing technology and operations planning for the wealth and asset management group. What percentage of the assets are in ETFs relative to mutual funds? So fast forward to where we are today, we have over $40 billion in assets under management. BERRUGA: You know, great question. RITHOLTZ: Wow.
You mentioned in the beginning of the book lower asset yields and richer asset prices have pulled forward future returns. So, starting yields of all major assets were coming down in the last decade and last decade — actually, several decades. RITHOLTZ: Really quite interesting. Explain that. Bonds are the most expensive.
Bitcoin was created in 2009 by a mysterious figure who goes by the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. When it first launched in 2009, a single bitcoin was only worth a few cents, but at its peak, it was worth around $60,000. If all of that sounds overwhelming, there’s no harm in skipping this particular asset class.
So if you start with the S&P 500 or in this case stocks and bonds, you only have two asset classes, right. So the proper benchmark for those pools has to look a little bit like the underlying assets they’re investing in. If you look at the types of assets that Yale invests in, you can create a benchmark for each pool.
So like a component of it was like the standard derivatives math, right? And so like, you know, I got there and I learned derivatives math, right? And it restarted in, I wanna say March of 2009, but like onlya little bit. It was derivatives math, it was like working with the traders on like risk management.
Instead of investing in a productive asset, these speculators were just assuming the recent momentum would continue. It’s fun math – a 20% drop in prices means you get 25% more shares for your dollar, and a 50% drop means twice as many , or 100% more shares per dollar invested.). Data source: S&P market data.
When you look at the wealthiest investors across the globe, one of the most common assets they own is real estate. When you look at the wealthiest investors across the globe, one of the most common assets they own is real estate. Since Kickstarter’s launch in 2009, 18 million people have backed projects.
Behavior Finance and Your Portfolio So much of the concept of investing is about logic, math, and numbers. For example: Prior to Covid-19, investors enjoyed the longest bull market in stock market history which lasted from March 2009 until February 2020 (almost 11 years ). During this time, the S&P 500 went from a low of 676.53
I’ll tell you something funny and people you know, we never quite had that accusation, but for the better part of 15 years before I started accepting capital, it was, “Hey, everybody’s telling you how to manage your assets the wrong way. And I think that has been true since 2009 until now. You could do it.
But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. And suddenly you could buy index funds that cover all of the major asset classes. They will earn that market return less, whatever they’re paying.
ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. I was good in math and I love the math. So, I was kind of, in my romantic mind when I was in my early 20s, I was going to take but not give back to math, that kind of thing. ADMATI: OK.
I am guessing they chose that timeframe to coincide with the March 2009 bottom. We've talked just a couple of times about the market becoming increasingly concentrated which just in terms of math means that a diversified strategy will lag for as long as the big names do well.
Well, the last installment in this series was 2009. BV: Book value — the accrued value of the stable value fund assets so far. MV: Market Value — the market value of the assets now, if we are able to liquidate the assets at current prices. Don’t overestimate what is possible. If it is more than 1.5%
BRYANT: So money, unlike math, money is highly emotional. I mean, there’s 50,000 kids in the Atlanta public school system, so you can do the math there. I believe I love math because it doesn’t have an opinion, that’s a Melody Hobson quote. BRYANT: Pioneer, and he was an asset owner. RITHOLTZ: Right.
I wouldn’t say I like one better than the other, but what I would say is I do find more personal satisfaction in helping the asset owner clients who really need the help. 2009, 10 in that role. And that should tell you whether or not an asset’s probably going to be appreciating or depreciating.
I want to get into that before we start talking about asset management. So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse.
Really, there are a few people in the world who have a better sense of distress, asset credit, real estate, and how to not only do the fundamental research, but tactically trade around the positions. The buyers didn’t have the ability to go cross assets and cross, let’s say, ratings as, as they are today.
No income, no job, no assets were exactly ninja, Sean Dobson : No pulse seems reasonable. We see it as, like I said, about 50 million assets and we’re modeling up the value of every home in the country, every, every week, basically. We’re we’re the quant shop in real estate, in the quant shop in physical assets.
She was CIO at Merrill Lynch Asset Management, and now CIO at both Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and runs their asset allocation models and their outsourced chief investment officer models. ’cause the asset management business of Sanford Bernstein, as everyone I think knows, was a deep value shop.
It’s about half our assets. ASNESS: About half our assets are really traditional, where money managers beat, you know, plenty of things, don’t let a short, or lever, or any of those hedge fund kind of things. My mom was a math teacher so — RITHOLTZ: Okay. RITHOLTZ: Okay. RITHOLTZ: Bill Sharpe. RITHOLTZ: Yeah.
So, I did the math, 20 million times a hundred. So, let me just repeat the math. And so, again, I went through this simple math. Asset management group had made an argument and then the investment bank says, he works here, and then the emerging market people say, what about us, and it was going on and on.
trillion in total assets and advises on a whole lot more. I was working directly with the CEO and president of both companies, but I realized that the biotech vertical was not my playing field for the long term, hence the NBA at Harvard to find another career path and, and that led me into asset management. of NAV of net asset value.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. And so graduating right into 2009, right out of the financial crisis, I said, I don’t think I’m gonna get a job. I mean, that’s why it gathered so many assets. And I just caught the bug. You learn the technology.
And to round out your background, you spend time at Alliance Bernstein, JP Morgan Asset Management and Morgan Stanley. Which was interesting because I actually started my career at JP Morgan Asset Management in the high yield and investment grade credit research team. And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting.
RITHOLTZ: So wait, you’re, I’m trying to do the math, if you were 24 in ‘08, so you got this watch in 2000, 99? Squarespace, and I love those guys, they were really instrumental to the growth of Hodinkee, allowed me to design my own website in 2009 until probably 2012 or 2013, when we got a professional upgrade.
Colin Camerer : So I, some of it was when I was in college at Johns Hopkins, I, I studied physics and math. And there was people, Physics didn’t have, people, psychology didn’t have math, economics was kind of the right mix. The math doesn’t math. That was too abstract. Yeah, I’m gonna vote.
He really is one of the most knowledgeable people in this space, and not just knowledgeable in the abstract, but helping to oversee just about a hundred billion dollars in client assets. Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics.
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