The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. Kidding aside, Tim Harford reminds us that “In 2008, the consensus from forecasters was that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009.” 40%) probability of happening.

Banking 298

Banking Economy Economics 298

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? Monetary stimulus (ZIRP/QE) from 2009-2021. It takes the Earth 365 days, 6 hours, 9 minutes, and 9.76 Our planet has done this about 4.54 billion times.

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 1, 2022

” The blog, which he launched in 2009, spawned a bestselling book, now available in 17 languages, as well as a podcast. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here ; all of our prior discussions of psychology and behavioral economics can be found here.

Economics 303

Economics Marketing Marketing 303

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. Prior to the pandemic, economic activity was mostly in the 2% range since 2010. 2009 -2.6%

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investing 278

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 18, 2023

The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for April dropped to 107.5 This is the 13th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2009, and the lowest reading since September 2020. from March's revised figure of 108.2. Today's reading represented a 0.6% month-over-month decline, consistent with the forecast.

Economics 115

Economics 115

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2022

2020s : Remained on emergency footing post Covid, despite broad evidence of economic recovery. Who is to Blame, 1-25 (June 29, 2009). _. 2000s : Kept rates too low for too long following 9/11 and dotcom implosion – FOMC Rate did not get over 1% until 2004. Following those March 2020 rate cuts, the Fed stayed at Zero until March 2022.

Banking 336

Banking Economics Portfolio Assets 336

Advisor Perspectives

JUNE 22, 2023

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May dropped to 106.7 and the 14th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2009. from April's figure of 107.5. This is the index's lowest reading since July 2020. Today's reading represented a 0.7% month-over-month decline, slightly higher than the forecast.

Economics 111

Economics 111

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2023

Note that the big dips in sales are related to economic recessions (early '80s, early '90s, the Great Recession of 2007 through mid-2009 and the pandemic in 2020). Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time.

Sales 204

Sales Economics 204

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

I hope to address this in greater detail in the coming weeks… Previously : How Overrated is Sentiment in Economics? November 22, 2009). Regardless, this is an area of research ripe for further exploration. Black Friday #Fails. Source : Inflation Expectations Continue Decline at the Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Horizons.

Risk Tolerance 334

Risk Tolerance Budgeting Numbers Banking 334

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

Note that the big dips in sales are related to economic recessions (early '80s, early '90s, the Great Recession of 2007 through mid-2009 and the pandemic in 2020). Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time.

Sales 200

Sales Economics 200

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces two measures of national output which, in theory, should be equivalent. For a discussion of recessions, see NBER's What is a recession? Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. With the exception of the early stages of the pandemic, the decrease in total new sales was the sharpest since 2009.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2009 64.6% -1.2 2009 64.6% -1.2 2009 64.6% -1.2 in December, down 0.4

Economics 242

Economics Sales Investing Investments 242

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2023

April 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in April for the sixth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 50.2%, up from 46.9% percent , up 3.3

Manufacturing 251

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 251

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

The S&P 500 topped out in early October 2007 and bottomed in March 2009. Economic Innovation Group ). • Like many things in the market, there aren’t any hard and fast rules for this kind of thing, especially in real-time. Let’s look at the 2008 scenario as an example. How Remote Work is Shifting Population Growth Across the U.S.

Communication 298

Communication Startup Management Economics 298

The Big Picture

AUGUST 4, 2022

Consider the Yardeni chart (top) showing earning surprises: Despite a variety of economic and geopolitical negatives, earnings have been holding up relatively well. It appears investors are relying on earnings to stay robust even if the economy suffers a short, shallow recession. Revenues , too).

Economics 264

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 264

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% The "Art of the Soft Landing" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation. 2009 -2.6%

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2023: How much will job growth slow in 2023? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. Two key leading economic indicators are suggesting a recession this year. Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. That is a clear employment recession.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2023

March 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded in March for the third consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.2 In the last two months, the index has reflected the fastest supplier delivery performance since April 2009, when it registered 45.5 percent, 1.8

Management 253

Management Economy Economics 253

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Note: The pandemic has distorted the economic data, and as I've noted many times, we can't be a slave to any model. Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. Click on graph for larger image. I ignored that pandemic distortion.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

The Irrelevant Investor

OCTOBER 25, 2022

Today we learned that home prices had their largest drop since 2009. In fact, a lot of the economic data will likely worsen. He said: “The US economic downturn gathere. This is just a small preview of what I believe we’ll see in the coming months as the market adjusts to 7% mortgages.

Economics 130

Economics Marketing Marketing 130

Advisor Perspectives

JULY 20, 2023

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for June dropped to 106.1 This is the index's lowest reading since July 2020 and the 15th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2009. from May's figure of 106.9. Today's reading represented a 0.7% month-over-month decline, slightly worse than the forecast.

Economics 75

Economics 75

The Big Picture

MARCH 4, 2023

in financial economics from London Business School. Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Rich Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA), which was founded in 2009 and is running $14.6B She earned her Ph.D. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Assets 182

Assets Management Media Investing 182

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. In summary, we find evidence for a shorter lag in the peak response of inflation to a policy shock in the post-2009 period even after we adjust the shock definition to incorporate forward guidance and balance sheet policy.

Economy 236

Economy Numbers Economics Sales 236

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2009 64.6% -1.2 2009 64.6% -1.2 2009 64.6% -1.2 in November 2022.

Economics 173

Economics Sales Investing Investments 173

Calculated Risk

JUNE 1, 2023

May 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in May for the seventh consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 51.4%, up from 50.2% percent , up 1.2

Manufacturing 167

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 167

Calculated Risk

APRIL 3, 2023

March 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in March for the fifth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 46.9%, down from 49.1% percent is 0.4

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 162

Carson Wealth

MARCH 10, 2025

Then who could ever forget the Great Financial Crisis ,which bottomed on March 9, 2009 after a down 56% generational bear market? Our basic conclusion was that while we did see an increase in economic risks, it did not change our baseline view. Not what you want to see if youre looking for an acceleration in economic growth.

Marketing 73

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 73

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2023

February 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in February for the fourth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 49.1%, down from 50.6%

Manufacturing 154

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 154

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Please consider the November 2022 Services ISM ® Report On Business ® Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the 30th month in a row — with the Services PMI ® registering 56.5 The rate of contraction was the fastest since August and among the sharpest on record (since October 2009). percent, 2.4

Economy 190

Economy Manufacturing Economics Healthcare 190

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

in 2023, its best performance since 2009. 550bps increases in the Federal Funds rate from March 2022 through July 2023 – and its long and variable lags – continues to exert a drag on the economy, which could lead to further economic contraction. Same for the Nasdaq 100: It gained 14.3% in Q4, and a whopping 53.8% over 2022-23.

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 28, 2023

Unusual Economic Indicators : You might have heard about indicators like the Big Mac Index (if you haven’t, you can read our previous article). Today, we’ll introduce you to some unusual economic indicators that might predict the economic conditions. Most Unusual Economic Indicators 1. What is it? What is the proof?

Economy 64

Economy Economics Sales Government 64

Fortune Financial

OCTOBER 14, 2024

Here below are a few simple diversification strategies that I think enhance a portfolio’s resilience through market and economic turbulence: I. Beware Factor Concentration You don’t have to be a stock picker to find yourself overweighted a given factor; the current stock market structure in the U.S.

Asset Allocation 131

Asset Allocation Government Portfolio Financial Advisor 131

Darrow Wealth Management

FEBRUARY 26, 2025

During times of economic, financial, and political uncertainty, investors often wonder where to invest or what changes to make to their portfolio. The returns are normalized total returns of various bond indices during the 2008 -2009 financial crisis. Again, every recession or economic downturn is different. treasuries.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Retirement Portfolio 52

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

October 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in October, with the overall economy achieving a 29th consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. This reading, the index’s lowest since March 2009 (43.2

Manufacturing 133

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 133

Carson Wealth

MARCH 3, 2025

Those other times we saw fear similar to this were times like the recession and near bear market of 1990, October 2008 and March 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis, and the end of the bear market in 2022. And lower exports are a drag on US economic growth. Heres the catch. Wait, Is GDP Growth Really Going To Be Negative in Q1?

Marketing 70

Marketing Marketing Government Economy 70