The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. .” 40%) probability of happening. By Jeremy Majerovitz St.

Banking 298

Banking Economy Economics 298

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). See: Better Measure of Output: GDP or GDI?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investments 363

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? Monetary stimulus (ZIRP/QE) from 2009-2021. Alas, utterly nothing. Fiscal stimulus 2020-22. The next ~12 years saw gains of 608.5% through January 4, 2022.

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. This has happened , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2023

April 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in April for the sixth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 50.2%, up from 46.9% Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M.,

Manufacturing 251

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 251

The Big Picture

AUGUST 4, 2022

It appears investors are relying on earnings to stay robust even if the economy suffers a short, shallow recession. Consider the Yardeni chart (top) showing earning surprises: Despite a variety of economic and geopolitical negatives, earnings have been holding up relatively well. Revenues , too).

Economics 264

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 264

Carson Wealth

MARCH 10, 2025

The worries are growing, from a potentially slowing economy, to a growing and more aggressive trade war, to worries over Washington policy. Then five years ago we shut down our economy during a once-a-century pandemic. Our basic conclusion was that while we did see an increase in economic risks, it did not change our baseline view.

Marketing 73

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 73

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2023

March 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded in March for the third consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.2 In the last two months, the index has reflected the fastest supplier delivery performance since April 2009, when it registered 45.5 The Prices Index was down 6.1

Management 253

Management Economy Economics 253

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Once we reach that point, then the second step of our inflation fighting process, as I see it, will be pausing to let the tightening we have already done work its way through the economy. I have us pausing at 5.4

Economy 236

Economy Numbers Economics Sales 236

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 28, 2023

Unusual Economic Indicators : You might have heard about indicators like the Big Mac Index (if you haven’t, you can read our previous article). However, there are many other lesser-known indicators that can actually provide valuable insights and are helpful for the economy. Most Unusual Economic Indicators 1. What is it?

Economy 64

Economy Economics Sales Government 64

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Please consider the November 2022 Services ISM ® Report On Business ® Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the 30th month in a row — with the Services PMI ® registering 56.5 The rate of contraction was the fastest since August and among the sharpest on record (since October 2009). percent, 2.4 percent, 2.4

Economy 190

Economy Manufacturing Economics Healthcare 190

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

in 2023, its best performance since 2009. Federal Reserve : While a recession is possible in 2024, it mostly depends upon how long the FOMC keeps rates tighter (higher) than is appropriate for the economy. Same for the Nasdaq 100: It gained 14.3% in Q4, and a whopping 53.8% over 2022-23. Data via Yardeni Research ).

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

Calculated Risk

JUNE 1, 2023

May 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in May for the seventh consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 51.4%, up from 50.2% Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M.,

Manufacturing 167

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 167

Calculated Risk

APRIL 3, 2023

March 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in March for the fifth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 46.9%, down from 49.1% percent , 1.4

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2023

February 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in February for the fourth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 49.1%, down from 50.6%

Manufacturing 154

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 154

Carson Wealth

MARCH 3, 2025

Good Riddance, February The second half of February was rough, as worries over the economy, tariffs, and large cap tech weakness dominated the conversation. We continue to think the bull market is alive and well and the economy is on solid footing, but that doesnt mean we wont have scary headlines or worries. Heres the thing.

Marketing 70

Marketing Marketing Government Economy 70

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

October 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in October, with the overall economy achieving a 29th consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. This reading, the index’s lowest since March 2009 (43.2

Manufacturing 133

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 133

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. If the underlying economy is sound, pullbacks like this can actually be a positive for the longer-term health of the market. The economy created over 2 million jobs in 2024, down from 2.4

Marketing 68

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 68

Discipline Funds

JULY 16, 2024

The combination of the Great Financial Crisis period and the Covid era created some of the most interesting economic experiments in history. They also resulted in some of the worst narratives in finance and economics. 1 Bad Narrative #1: Raising Interest Rates Adds to Inflation.

Government 132

Government Banking Economy Economics 132

Calculated Risk

JUNE 5, 2023

May 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded in May for the fifth consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 50.3 percent in March) reflects the fastest supplier delivery performance since June 2009, when the index registered 46 percent. percent (with a low of 45.8 percent, an 8.8-percentage

Management 100

Management Economy Economics 100

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 3, 2023

July 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded in July for the seventh consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 52.7 percent in March) reflects the fastest supplier delivery performance since June 2009, when the index registered 46 percent. percent (with a low of 45.8

Economy 100

Economy Economics Management 100

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. Even more impressive is the past four times this happened (1997, 2003, 2009, and 2020) all saw at least double-digit returns. How the consumer is tapped out, the economy is headed for a recession, only a few stocks are going up, and so on endlessly.

Marketing 142

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 142

The Big Picture

MARCH 4, 2025

Previously she was co-head of the bank’s Innovation Economy Group. And in my summer in between I worked for Mayor Daley in Chicago on economic development issues. Alright, so, so you go from public finance, how did you evolve towards co-head of innovation economy? Imagine what that was like. Melissa Smith : Sure.

Banking 130

Banking Economy Startup Marketing 130

Carson Wealth

APRIL 1, 2024

The Conference Board’s widely followed Leading Economic Index finally had its first monthly gain after 23 consecutive months of declines. As long-time followers of this commentary know, we’ve been quite bullish on both the stock market and the economy for well over a year now. Could stocks fall in April? Right now, our U.S.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 4, 2023

December 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the second consecutive month following a 29-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 51.4%, up from 48.4% percent , 0.6

Manufacturing 100

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 100

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

Since 1995, there are four rather distinct periods during which forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index declined, tied to a specific event and/or economic downturn. Further, stock markets tend historically to move in advance of changes in economic activity or earnings trajectory, not in response to those changes. company.

Clients 98

Clients Economy Economics Marketing 98

Discipline Funds

MARCH 15, 2024

Many governments banned short selling in 2009 and the research following this period showed that the short sale bans reduced market liquidity, price discovery and increased investor costs. 3) Is the economy weaker than we think? In short, the economy is still digesting the huge excesses from Covid.

Economy 104

Economy Financial Advice Sales Retail 104

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 9, 2023

It is the first non-Covid contractionary reading since 2009. The NFIB small business survey provides a variety of readings on key economic activities beyond the headline optimism index, which consensus expects to remain little changed at around 91.5 The ISM services index fell sharply and is now in contraction. in December.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Food Marketing 52

Carson Wealth

JULY 8, 2024

The economy added 206,000 jobs in June, ahead of expectations of 190,000. Fortunately, the doers drive the economy; the thinkers only report on it. The economy created 206,000 jobs last month, above expectations for a 190,000 increase. These down cycles can adversely impact the productive capacity of the economy in future years.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 27, 2023

In the 31-year history of the KBW Bank Index, the 30% decline in March was only exceeded by a 35% loss in January 2009 in the later stages of the global financial crisis. Lost in the focus on global banking issues were some encouraging economic data. at the best level in nearly a year. from a year ago.

Banking 98

Banking Marketing Marketing Economics 98

James Hendries

JULY 13, 2022

So far, this year hasn’t seen a full-blown crisis like 2008–2009 or 2020, but the ride has been very bumpy. Understandably, rising prices, slowing economic growth, and a challenging first half for both stocks and bonds have many investors on edge, and fatigue from more than two years of COVID-19 measures doesn’t make it any easier.

Investment Advisor 98

Investment Advisor Banking License Insurance 98

Validea

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Carstens, the head of the Bank for International Settlements, spoke about the volatility in the market and his belief that it’s not a fluke; rather the entire global economy is in the process of transformation that will force much rethinking of economic policy. And of course, Covid continues to disrupt businesses’ operations.

Government 64

Government Banking Economics Economy 64

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

JANUARY 26, 2024

Ever since the market crash of 2008-2009, economists and pundits alike have used the phrase “new normal” to describe everything from stock market conditions to inflation to the employment market and everything in between. As we are now a decade and a half removed from that economic meltdown, I feel that a bit of reflection is in order.

Marketing 74

Marketing Marketing Financial Advisor Economics 74

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

JULY 8, 2022

Let’s take a closer look at recessions and how one may impact the economy and markets for the remainder of 2022. . The most widely accepted definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by GDP. Recessions create an unpredictable economic environment. Defining a Recession.

Economics 59

Economics Financial Advisor Economy Portfolio 59

Carson Wealth

MARCH 11, 2024

The bottom line is the economy is strong because the labor market is strong. The S&P 500 fell an eventual 57% from its October 2007 peak before bottoming on March 9, 2009, and finally ending the global financial crisis (GFC) bear market. The global economy was in shambles, and people were losing their jobs all around.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Retirement 96