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ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. I was good in math and I love the math. So, I was kind of, in my romantic mind when I was in my early 20s, I was going to take but not give back to math, that kind of thing.
But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. And then on top of that, of course we ran straight into the 2008, 2009 great recession. They will earn that market return less, whatever they’re paying.
I had an economics lesson, I had a life lesson, I had an epiphany, I had a race relations lesson, I had a self-esteem and confidence lesson. Being broke is economic, but being poor is a disabling frame of mind, a depressed condition of your spirit. It’s home economics class, doesn’t exist anymore. RITHOLTZ: Right.
In doing so, I thought this conversation was really quite fascinating, and I think you will also, especially if you’re not only interested in equity, but curious as to how to combine various aspects of market functions, valuation, economic cycle, fed actions into one coherent strategy. 2009, 10 in that role. I, I love that area.
Which has in turn triggered the more skittish stock investors to run for the exits and completely change their view of our economic future, flooding the financial news with red ink and scary headlines. Now that we’ve covered the background, we can get into some better news: This is all a normal, healthy part of the economic cycle.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. I could maybe flip that around a little bit since I think particularly post 2008, 2009, the quality style of investing has become a lot more popular.
A degree in mathematics from Oxford, a doctorate in mathematical epidemiology and economics from Cambridge. So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. What is that? The second is excess returns.
So I think that argument is very valid in those couple of years, 2009, 2010 probably, maybe 2011, which was a tough year for hedge funds. SEIDES: Yeah, I wouldn’t measure it in terms of economic returns. SEIDES: I would say that’s not really part of my belief system of what a hedge fund is trying to deliver.
And I think that has been true since 2009 until now. It’s much deeper than math. My podcast where I speak to couples from all over the economic spectrum is “I Will Teach You to Be Rich” and my book is also called “I Will Teach You to Be Rich.” So, they just looked at me like I was an alien. This was a blast.
.” It’s really helpful to have had five other meetings with people who sit at analogous funds that had losses that were just as big, and in fact, they may have contributed to those losses more and be able to tell him, first off, your fund, just by my math, has a $250 million management fee. RITHOLTZ: Is it just inertia?
And when I was studying in university economics, I did not really get the passion. Following the financial crisis and the Fed cutting rates, economy and the market starts recovering in late 2009 and then 2010 and we kept hearing from a lot of different value corners, hey, everything is richly priced. Bonds are the most expensive.
Building multiple passive income streams has an additional benefit in the short term: it can make you more resilient and better able to weather economic shocks, such as what was experienced with the past housing crisis and global pandemic. Since Kickstarter’s launch in 2009, 18 million people have backed projects.
And what we figured out in 2009, really when we started buying homes is that we made the bet that it, I mean, it wasn’t a very exotic bet, but we made the bet that the subprime mortgage market wasn’t coming back at all. And so, so starting in 2009, we, we, there was no flip market. Sometimes five years.
My mom was a math teacher so — RITHOLTZ: Okay. Some famous periods of reversals in market, the most famous spring of 2009 when we came off the GFC. It’s probably the most important part of what we do in the macro side, with economic trends, not just price trends, being a relatively recent innovation and super important.
We’ll get to where you work at JP Morgan, but economics bachelor’s from Columbia MBA from Harvard. So I decided to become an economics major and a psychology minor. So the intersection of psychology and economics became really interesting. And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting.
The economic dislocation, the health risks, just the mayhem that took place, but from the perspective of a number of corporate CEOs, Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital, the hedge fund that had a couple of amazing trades based on this. HOFFMAN: So obviously, I’ve — you know, economically minded from the jump.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. And so graduating right into 2009, right out of the financial crisis, I said, I don’t think I’m gonna get a job. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. And I just caught the bug.
There are a lot of economic problems that we'll face in the coming years. Unfortunately for these people, the minimum wage has not increased since 2009, nor, to state the obvious, has it kept up with inflation. Unfortunately, there are no easy solutions. While this represents just a small slice of the working population, another 20.6
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
Colin Camerer : So I, some of it was when I was in college at Johns Hopkins, I, I studied physics and math. Colin Camerer : And then economics, which I really only took a little bit of, a lot fewer than my peers I later competed with in grad school, was kind of in between like the three little bears, you know, it was, there was, I love that.
RITHOLTZ: So wait, you’re, I’m trying to do the math, if you were 24 in ‘08, so you got this watch in 2000, 99? Squarespace, and I love those guys, they were really instrumental to the growth of Hodinkee, allowed me to design my own website in 2009 until probably 2012 or 2013, when we got a professional upgrade.
So moved over to London back in 2009 and the rest is history. 00:13:05 [Speaker Changed] But you are also on the advisory board for the Stanford Institute of Economic Policy and Research. Now we’re starting to come out of that now, but that math is still nowhere near where it needs to be. Have been a resident of London.
in Economics from Chicago and MBA from Stanford. So, I did the math, 20 million times a hundred. So, let me just repeat the math. And so, again, I went through this simple math. Even if you read both of Browder’s books, you will find something to be amazed at. With no further ado, my conversation with Bill Browder.
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