Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. 2009 -2.6% 2009 -2.6%

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 28, 2024

BRICS is a coalition of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Formed in 2009, BRICS aims to enhance cooperation among its members in various sectors, including trade, investment, and development. The collective efforts of BRICS highlight the importance of collaboration among emerging economies.

Economics 111

Economics Economy Government Investing 111

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

Holding onto expectations of major shifts in key drivers of the markets and the economy – merely due to the changing of the calendar – is a carryover from the days when the calendar mattered much more. Monetary stimulus (ZIRP/QE) from 2009-2021. Alas, utterly nothing. Fiscal stimulus 2020-22. The next ~12 years saw gains of 608.5%

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Kidding aside, Tim Harford reminds us that “In 2008, the consensus from forecasters was that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009.” ” Why? .”

Banking 298

Banking Economy Economics 298

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 9, 2022

Back in early 2009, I wrote a couple of posts arguing there would be an increase in auto sales - Vehicle Sales (Jan 2009) and Looking for the Sun (Feb 2009). This was an out-of-the-consensus call and helped me call the bottom for the US economy in mid-2009. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Sales 208

Sales Numbers Economy 208

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 21, 2023

Markets The credit markets are very different than they were in 2009. etf.com) Economy The Fed has hiked 11 of the last 13 meetings. semafor.com) Despite a slowdown, the warehouse industry is raising rents. wsj.com) IPOs Shopify ($SHOP) is a winner in the Klayvio ($KVYO) IPO. theinformation.com) Is the IPO window really that open?

Financial Advising 299

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 299

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. This is now happening , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. This has happened , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 6, 2023

This suggests vehicle sales might increase in 2023 even with higher rates and a soft economy. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. The second graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA.

Sales 237

Sales Economy 237

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2023

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a fifth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. percent recorded in March; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., percent , 0.8 percentage point higher than the 46.3 percent recorded in March. percent , 1.4 percent , up 3.3

Manufacturing 251

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 251

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. My sense is growth will stay sluggish in 2023, but the economy will avoid recession.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Carson Wealth

MARCH 10, 2025

The worries are growing, from a potentially slowing economy, to a growing and more aggressive trade war, to worries over Washington policy. Then five years ago we shut down our economy during a once-a-century pandemic. The economy created 151,000 jobs in February, more or less consistent with expectations.

Marketing 73

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 73

A Wealth of Common Sense

AUGUST 13, 2024

economy has been in a recession for just two months! That’s roughly 1% of the time, meaning that since July 2009, the United States has avoided a recession 99% of the time. Do you know how long we’ve been in a recession for since the end of the Great Financial Crisis? Two months. In 15 years, the U.S.

Economy 132

Economy 132

The Big Picture

AUGUST 4, 2022

It appears investors are relying on earnings to stay robust even if the economy suffers a short, shallow recession. I noted near the lows in June that I “ The contrarian in me is just starting to get that itch to buy here, but it’s not a full-throated “Gotta gotta gotta get some” like 2020 or 2009.” Revenues , too).

Economics 264

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 264

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2023

In the last two months, the index has reflected the fastest supplier delivery performance since April 2009, when it registered 45.5 The Prices Index was down 6.1 percentage points in March, to 59.5 percent.

Management 253

Management Economy Economics 253

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

in 2023, its best performance since 2009. Federal Reserve : While a recession is possible in 2024, it mostly depends upon how long the FOMC keeps rates tighter (higher) than is appropriate for the economy. Same for the Nasdaq 100: It gained 14.3% in Q4, and a whopping 53.8% over 2022-23. Data via Yardeni Research ).

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Once we reach that point, then the second step of our inflation fighting process, as I see it, will be pausing to let the tightening we have already done work its way through the economy. I have us pausing at 5.4 And Wall Street economists are expecting three or more rate hikes this year.

Economy 236

Economy Numbers Economics Sales 236

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM ® Report On Business ® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) “The The rate of contraction was the fastest since August and among the sharpest on record (since October 2009).

Economy 190

Economy Manufacturing Economics Healthcare 190

Calculated Risk

JUNE 1, 2023

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a sixth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. percent recorded in April; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., percent , 0.2 percentage point lower than the 47.1 percent recorded in April. percent , 3.1 percent , up 1.2

Manufacturing 167

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 167

Calculated Risk

APRIL 3, 2023

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a fourth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. percent recorded in February; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., percent , 1.4 percentage points lower than the 47.7 percent recorded in February. percent is 0.4

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 162

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. If the underlying economy is sound, pullbacks like this can actually be a positive for the longer-term health of the market. The economy created over 2 million jobs in 2024, down from 2.4

Marketing 68

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 68

The Big Picture

MARCH 4, 2025

Previously she was co-head of the bank’s Innovation Economy Group. Alright, so, so you go from public finance, how did you evolve towards co-head of innovation economy? So Barry Ritholtz : Let’s talk about your dual role, your, your co-head of innovation economy and your head of specialized industries.

Banking 130

Banking Economy Startup Marketing 130

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2023

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a third month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. percent recorded in January; readings from the last three months are the index’s lowest since March 2009 (43.2 Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., percent , 0.3 percentage point higher than the 47.4 percent recorded in January.

Manufacturing 154

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 154

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 28, 2023

However, there are many other lesser-known indicators that can actually provide valuable insights and are helpful for the economy. Back in the autumn of 2001, he noticed that when the US economy was struggling due to the recession, lipstick sales were actually going up instead of down. Keep reading to find out what they are!

Economy 64

Economy Economics Sales Government 64

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

October 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in October, with the overall economy achieving a 29th consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. This reading, the index’s lowest since March 2009 (43.2

Manufacturing 133

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 133

Carson Wealth

MARCH 3, 2025

Good Riddance, February The second half of February was rough, as worries over the economy, tariffs, and large cap tech weakness dominated the conversation. We continue to think the bull market is alive and well and the economy is on solid footing, but that doesnt mean we wont have scary headlines or worries. Heres the thing.

Marketing 70

Marketing Marketing Government Economy 70

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 1, 2023

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a second month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. percent recorded in December; the last two readings are the index’s lowest since March 2009 (43.2 Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., percent , 1 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted 48.4 percent is 0.5 percent, 2.1

Manufacturing 133

Manufacturing Economy Management 133

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. Even more impressive is the past four times this happened (1997, 2003, 2009, and 2020) all saw at least double-digit returns. How the consumer is tapped out, the economy is headed for a recession, only a few stocks are going up, and so on endlessly.

Marketing 142

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 142

Calculated Risk

JUNE 5, 2023

percent in March) reflects the fastest supplier delivery performance since June 2009, when the index registered 46 percent. percent and the index’s lowest reading since May 2009 (40 percent). In the last six months, the average reading of 48.0 percent (with a low of 45.8 percentage points in May, to 56.2 percent, an 8.8-percentage

Management 100

Management Economy Economics 100

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 3, 2023

percent in March) reflects the fastest supplier delivery performance since June 2009, when the index registered 46 percent. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

Economy 100

Economy Economics Management 100

Carson Wealth

APRIL 1, 2024

As long-time followers of this commentary know, we’ve been quite bullish on both the stock market and the economy for well over a year now. but all major economies based on their individual economic sensitivities, which we can then roll up to regional and global leading indicators. Could stocks fall in April? While our U.S.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 4, 2023

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates contraction after 30 straight months of expansion. percent; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The December Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.4

Manufacturing 100

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 100

Discipline Funds

MARCH 15, 2024

Many governments banned short selling in 2009 and the research following this period showed that the short sale bans reduced market liquidity, price discovery and increased investor costs. 3) Is the economy weaker than we think? In short, the economy is still digesting the huge excesses from Covid.

Economy 104

Economy Financial Advice Sales Retail 104

Carson Wealth

JULY 8, 2024

The economy added 206,000 jobs in June, ahead of expectations of 190,000. Fortunately, the doers drive the economy; the thinkers only report on it. The economy created 206,000 jobs last month, above expectations for a 190,000 increase. These down cycles can adversely impact the productive capacity of the economy in future years.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

Great Financial Crisis October 2007 April 2009 -39.0% 3/9/2009 4/30/2009 69 29.0% 1 Yet, it’s not uncommon for the market multiple to expand during a recession, given both the heavy economic cyclicality of certain sectors of the economy, as well as the expectation of a drop in the 10-year yield (along with a more dovish Fed).

Clients 98

Clients Economy Economics Marketing 98

Carson Wealth

MARCH 11, 2024

The bottom line is the economy is strong because the labor market is strong. The S&P 500 fell an eventual 57% from its October 2007 peak before bottoming on March 9, 2009, and finally ending the global financial crisis (GFC) bear market. The global economy was in shambles, and people were losing their jobs all around.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Retirement 96

Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 26, 2022

This behavior is like what was seen near the bottom in 2002, 2009, and 2020. In the past month, there have been five sessions where the S&P 500 gained 2% or more, indicating that institutions are dipping their toes in the water. The post Reading the volatility tea leaves appeared first on Nationwide Financial.

Financial Market 105

Financial Market Marketing Marketing Investing 105