The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

in 2023, its best performance since 2009. Federal Reserve : While a recession is possible in 2024, it mostly depends upon how long the FOMC keeps rates tighter (higher) than is appropriate for the economy. Same for the Nasdaq 100: It gained 14.3% in Q4, and a whopping 53.8% over 2022-23. Data via Yardeni Research ).

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

The Big Picture

AUGUST 4, 2022

It appears investors are relying on earnings to stay robust even if the economy suffers a short, shallow recession. I noted near the lows in June that I “ The contrarian in me is just starting to get that itch to buy here, but it’s not a full-throated “Gotta gotta gotta get some” like 2020 or 2009.” Revenues , too).

Economics 264

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 264

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. 2009 -2.6% Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 111

Economy Sales Economics Investing 111

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM ® Report On Business ® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) “The The rate of contraction was the fastest since August and among the sharpest on record (since October 2009).

Economy 190

Economy Manufacturing Economics Healthcare 190

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2022.

Economy 94

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 94

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. 2009 -2.6% 2009 -2.6%

Economy 80

Economy Sales Economics Investing 80

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 28, 2023

However, there are many other lesser-known indicators that can actually provide valuable insights and are helpful for the economy. Back in the autumn of 2001, he noticed that when the US economy was struggling due to the recession, lipstick sales were actually going up instead of down. Keep reading to find out what they are!

Economy 64

Economy Economics Sales Government 64

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 28, 2024

BRICS is a coalition of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Formed in 2009, BRICS aims to enhance cooperation among its members in various sectors, including trade, investment, and development. The collective efforts of BRICS highlight the importance of collaboration among emerging economies.

Economics 111

Economics Economy Government Investments 111

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2024

My back from vacay morning reads: • Pandemic Start-Ups Are Thriving, and Helping to Fuel the Economy : A record surge in new businesses has helped drive job growth, and could have longer-term benefits. ( In 2009, the market cap of the US stock market was 30% of the global stock market cap. Prior to launching Cutter, he focused on U.S.

Electronics 147

Electronics Recruitment License Healthcare 147

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 9, 2022

Back in early 2009, I wrote a couple of posts arguing there would be an increase in auto sales - Vehicle Sales (Jan 2009) and Looking for the Sun (Feb 2009). This was an out-of-the-consensus call and helped me call the bottom for the US economy in mid-2009. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Sales 83

Sales Numbers Economy 83

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. This is now happening , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 145

Sales Economy Economics Investing 145

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. This has happened , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 144

Sales Economy Engineering Investments 144

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. Even more impressive is the past four times this happened (1997, 2003, 2009, and 2020) all saw at least double-digit returns. How the consumer is tapped out, the economy is headed for a recession, only a few stocks are going up, and so on endlessly.

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 143

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 6, 2023

This suggests vehicle sales might increase in 2023 even with higher rates and a soft economy. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. The second graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA.

Sales 95

Sales Economy 95

Carson Wealth

APRIL 1, 2024

As long-time followers of this commentary know, we’ve been quite bullish on both the stock market and the economy for well over a year now. but all major economies based on their individual economic sensitivities, which we can then roll up to regional and global leading indicators. Could stocks fall in April? While our U.S.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 97

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2023

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a fifth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. percent recorded in March; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., percent , 0.8 percentage point higher than the 46.3 percent recorded in March. percent , 1.4 percent , up 3.3

Manufacturing 100

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 100

Discipline Funds

MARCH 15, 2024

Many governments banned short selling in 2009 and the research following this period showed that the short sale bans reduced market liquidity, price discovery and increased investor costs. 3) Is the economy weaker than we think? In short, the economy is still digesting the huge excesses from Covid.

Economy 98

Economy Financial Advice Sales Retail 98

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. My sense is growth will stay sluggish in 2023, but the economy will avoid recession.

Sales 145

Sales Economy Banking Economics 145

Carson Wealth

JULY 8, 2024

The economy added 206,000 jobs in June, ahead of expectations of 190,000. Fortunately, the doers drive the economy; the thinkers only report on it. The economy created 206,000 jobs last month, above expectations for a 190,000 increase. These down cycles can adversely impact the productive capacity of the economy in future years.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

Great Financial Crisis October 2007 April 2009 -39.0% 3/9/2009 4/30/2009 69 29.0% 1 Yet, it’s not uncommon for the market multiple to expand during a recession, given both the heavy economic cyclicality of certain sectors of the economy, as well as the expectation of a drop in the 10-year yield (along with a more dovish Fed).

Clients 98

Clients Economy Economics Investing 98

Carson Wealth

MARCH 11, 2024

The bottom line is the economy is strong because the labor market is strong. The S&P 500 fell an eventual 57% from its October 2007 peak before bottoming on March 9, 2009, and finally ending the global financial crisis (GFC) bear market. The global economy was in shambles, and people were losing their jobs all around.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Retirement 97

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2023

In the last two months, the index has reflected the fastest supplier delivery performance since April 2009, when it registered 45.5 The Prices Index was down 6.1 percentage points in March, to 59.5 percent.

Management 101

Management Economy Economics 101

Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 26, 2022

This behavior is like what was seen near the bottom in 2002, 2009, and 2020. In the past month, there have been five sessions where the S&P 500 gained 2% or more, indicating that institutions are dipping their toes in the water. The post Reading the volatility tea leaves appeared first on Nationwide Financial.

Financial Market 105

Financial Market Marketing Marketing Investing 105

MarketWatch

JUNE 29, 2023

Treasurys, which picked up further steam on Thursday after data showed the economy and labor market remaining surprisingly strong despite the U.S. Treasurys, which picked up further steam on Thursday after data showed the economy and labor market remaining surprisingly strong despite the U.S. regional banks. regional banks.

Government 75

Government Economy Budgeting Retirement 75

James Hendries

JULY 13, 2022

So far, this year hasn’t seen a full-blown crisis like 2008–2009 or 2020, but the ride has been very bumpy. We may not be flying into a storm, but there’s been plenty of turbulence the first part of 2022. How businesses, households, and central banks steer through the rough air will set the tone for markets over the second half of 2022.

Investment Advisor 98

Investment Advisor Banking License Insurance 98

The Irrelevant Investor

OCTOBER 4, 2017

In 2009, the world's economy was experiencing pain like it hadn't seen since the 1930s. Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke The World , was published in January 2009, and although it received a Pulitzer Prize, it's not one you see on many people's lists. Their currency was destroyed and their whole economy ravaged.

Economy 52

Economy Numbers Economics 52

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Once we reach that point, then the second step of our inflation fighting process, as I see it, will be pausing to let the tightening we have already done work its way through the economy. I have us pausing at 5.4 And Wall Street economists are expecting three or more rate hikes this year.

Economy 94

Economy Economics Numbers Sales 94

The Big Picture

APRIL 4, 2024

And without that, you know, investment in the economy, we weren’t going to get the economy forward. This is not the 2009, 2010 to 2020 period where basically all you needed was. And so the fear was that they were just going to all pilot in the tertiary bills and they were never going to move into risk assets.

Portfolio 162

Portfolio Management Assets Economy 162

Investing Caffeine

MAY 2, 2022

For long-term stock investors who have reaped the massive +520% rewards from the March 2009 lows, they understand this gargantuan climb was not earned without some rocky times along the way. As Albert Einstein stated, “In the middle of every difficulty lies an opportunity.”.

Electronics 59

Electronics Economy CFP Government 59

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

JANUARY 26, 2024

Ever since the market crash of 2008-2009, economists and pundits alike have used the phrase “new normal” to describe everything from stock market conditions to inflation to the employment market and everything in between. This trend has grown in the years since 2008-2009.

Marketing 74

Marketing Marketing Financial Advisor Economics 74

Calculated Risk

JUNE 1, 2023

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a sixth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. percent recorded in April; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., percent , 0.2 percentage point lower than the 47.1 percent recorded in April. percent , 3.1 percent , up 1.2

Manufacturing 66

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 66

Validea

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Carstens, the head of the Bank for International Settlements, spoke about the volatility in the market and his belief that it’s not a fluke; rather the entire global economy is in the process of transformation that will force much rethinking of economic policy. And of course, Covid continues to disrupt businesses’ operations.

Government 64

Government Banking Economics Economy 64

Calculated Risk

APRIL 3, 2023

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a fourth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. percent recorded in February; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., percent , 1.4 percentage points lower than the 47.7 percent recorded in February. percent is 0.4

Manufacturing 65

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 65

Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 17, 2022

The MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, hit its highest level since 2009. The International Monetary Fund warned of increased pressure on the global economy, cutting the forecast for next year to 2.9%, down from 2.9% Roughly one-third of the global economy es expected to decline, while the U.S., by 2024.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Retail Banking 52

Validea

OCTOBER 21, 2022

Following the Lehman Brothers’ collapse in September 2008, bear market rallies came and went, and the low didn’t happen until March 2009. While the big gains, generated in such a gloomy atmosphere, could indicate that the market is nearing its low, there is also a chance that the economy will continue to weaken.

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Economy Investing 59

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

JULY 8, 2022

Let’s take a closer look at recessions and how one may impact the economy and markets for the remainder of 2022. . One recession may be caused by a shake-up in the labor markets while another may be due to an unexpected shift in the economy such as the housing market crash in 2008-2009 or a non-economic factor such as a pandemic.

Economics 59

Economics Financial Advisor Economy Portfolio 59

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2023

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a third month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. percent recorded in January; readings from the last three months are the index’s lowest since March 2009 (43.2 Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., percent , 0.3 percentage point higher than the 47.4 percent recorded in January.

Manufacturing 61

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 61