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capitalspectator.com) The credit markets are very different than they were in 2009. aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com) How to make the math behind home ownership work (or not). (behaviouralinvestment.com) Why selling a stock is harder than buying. flyoverstocks.com) Bond investors are being given an opportunity to lock in 2% real yields.
The US population today is 341,814,420; in 2009 it was 308,512,035. Economy in 2022 was $25,439.70B; in 2009, it was $14,478.06B; ignore that also? from 2009, and by 2024 you get (wait for it) $193.44T. Do we simply ignore the growth in the size of the economy and the U.S. population? Do we just ignore that?
The dotcom top, the double bottom in Oct 02-March 03; the highs in 2007, the lows 2009. 24, 2023 _ 1: In particular, why average outperforms over the long run; Sommers credits not making errors (via Charlie Ellis’ “Winning the Loser’s Game”) but the nuance and math are fascinating. By Jeff Sommer New York Times, Nov.
The maths are exactly the same. These sorts of math problems are the focus of this week’s TBL. Math Problems As this TBL goes live, just 16 games and one day of the NCAA Tournament are in the books, yet my bracket is a mess. We notice the unlikelihood of 100 in a row because of the pattern. Thanks for reading. quintillion.
Prior to joining DoubleLine in 2009, Sherman was a senior vice president at TCW Group Inc. We discuss how he began as a math major but didn’t want to go into physics, engineering or academia, so finance was the next logical career option. He is host of the podcast The Sherman Show and a CFA charter holder.
Listeners think to 2009, the bottom, at the bottom, um, stocks have almost been a 10 bagger. And the way math works, you end up with a stock that goes up a bunch. We’ve done the math on some of these high-yield portfolios and taxable accounts. And that’s the broad market.
I am guessing they chose that timeframe to coincide with the March 2009 bottom. We've talked just a couple of times about the market becoming increasingly concentrated which just in terms of math means that a diversified strategy will lag for as long as the big names do well.
I would agree with Ben's thoughts, which is that the math says no, but the psychological constraints say yes. By June 2009*, stocks had trailed long-term government bonds over the previous 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 years. Since June 2009, stocks are up 250%, long-term government bonds are up 60%.
But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. And then on top of that, of course we ran straight into the 2008, 2009 great recession. They will earn that market return less, whatever they’re paying.
If that is the case, you certainly cannot find evidence of it in company results; since 2009, the first full year in which Altria was fully separate from Philip Morris International (PM) and thus a pure play on U.S. With that being said, some might argue with me about why the stock has performed so poorly the last several years.
ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. I was good in math and I love the math. So, I was kind of, in my romantic mind when I was in my early 20s, I was going to take but not give back to math, that kind of thing.
Duke math professor Jonathan Mattingly claimed the average college basketball fan has a far better chance of achieving bracket perfection than one in 9.2 In 2009, New Jersey grandmother Patricia Demauro set a craps world record over four hours and 18 minutes by rolling a pair of dice 154 times before crapping out. quintillion.
Bitcoin was created in 2009 by a mysterious figure who goes by the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. When it first launched in 2009, a single bitcoin was only worth a few cents, but at its peak, it was worth around $60,000. But while Nakamoto is known as the currency’s founder, it is not controlled by any single individual.
I’m good at math and science and you know, I always had an idea what go into business, but I felt that electrical engineering would be a good foundation. You know, I, it always, I I see different numbers all the time, so it’s always kinda like, who’s math if you will? 00:02:16 [Speaker Changed] Me too.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. I could maybe flip that around a little bit since I think particularly post 2008, 2009, the quality style of investing has become a lot more popular.
Duke math professor Jonathan Mattingly claimed the average college basketball fan has a far better chance of achieving bracket perfection than one in 9.2 In 2009, New Jersey grandmother Patricia Demauro set a craps world record over four hours and 18 minutes by rolling a pair of dice 154 times before crapping out. quintillion.
So like a component of it was like the standard derivatives math, right? And so like, you know, I got there and I learned derivatives math, right? And it restarted in, I wanna say March of 2009, but like onlya little bit. It was derivatives math, it was like working with the traders on like risk management.
percent (2009). This is the best thing I read this week (it combines magic, music, mystery, and math); this is the best thing I saw. Over the past 50 years (1972-2021), the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note has returned as much as 32.81 percent in a calendar year (1982) and lost as much as 11.12 The saddest. The sweetest.
Well, the last installment in this series was 2009. Photo Credit: Ruin Raider || It is important to recognize the limitations of any system. Don’t overestimate what is possible. I ran a Guaranteed Investment Contract [GIC] desk at Provident Mutual from 1992-1997. ” Now, I know I lost most of you with the last paragraph.
It’s fun math – a 20% drop in prices means you get 25% more shares for your dollar, and a 50% drop means twice as many , or 100% more shares per dollar invested.). It’d be like retiring at the bottom of 2009 with still-decent numbers. the current blowup) -20% so far What’s your guess?
BRYANT: So money, unlike math, money is highly emotional. I mean, there’s 50,000 kids in the Atlanta public school system, so you can do the math there. I believe I love math because it doesn’t have an opinion, that’s a Melody Hobson quote. This was, so you had the 2008, 2009 economic crisis.
Behavior Finance and Your Portfolio So much of the concept of investing is about logic, math, and numbers. For example: Prior to Covid-19, investors enjoyed the longest bull market in stock market history which lasted from March 2009 until February 2020 (almost 11 years ). During this time, the S&P 500 went from a low of 676.53
And I did the math, and I think at that point in time, roughly speaking, assets in ETS were roughly just 10 percent, 12 percent of assets in mutual funds and I was pretty convinced that that number was to increase significantly. I mean, one of our first ETF was our China Consumer ETF that we launched in 2009. Wait, markets go down?
So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. It’s just math stick to it over long periods of time. And then I was looking for something more applied. The second is excess returns.
2009, 10 in that role. So that’s the math. It’s a, it’s the marrying, quite frankly, of macro and micro. So I have a, a deep background in micro, mainly the TMT space. And then I developed this macro affinity starting in 2000, really? And so marrying the two to me is the advantage.
And I think that has been true since 2009 until now. It’s much deeper than math. So, they just looked at me like I was an alien. I looked at them like, I don’t really care what you say. I’m going on air, I’m going to say what I want. And I go, I simply don’t accept the premise anymore.
.” It’s really helpful to have had five other meetings with people who sit at analogous funds that had losses that were just as big, and in fact, they may have contributed to those losses more and be able to tell him, first off, your fund, just by my math, has a $250 million management fee.
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Ken Griffin’s Hand-Picked Math Prodigy Runs Market-Making Empire : Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao left for college at age 14, caught Griffin’s eye early in his career and built systems now mopping up market share. Social Leverage recently launched its 4th fund.
So I think that argument is very valid in those couple of years, 2009, 2010 probably, maybe 2011, which was a tough year for hedge funds. RITHOLTZ: So hold the duration risk aside with those two, but just for an investor in treasuries, I know you’ve done the math before. You still had 2012 to 2017 to finish the bet.
So I decided to take some action, by doing the math for myself using a spreadsheet. Further Reading: I was quite moved by this piece that Cloud Medical’s Dr. David Tusek wrote about “ the ten heartbreaks ” that led him to work since 2009 towards accelerating this better way to do healthcare.
Following the financial crisis and the Fed cutting rates, economy and the market starts recovering in late 2009 and then 2010 and we kept hearing from a lot of different value corners, hey, everything is richly priced. Let’s talk a little bit about the pushback to low expected returns. Bonds are the most expensive. Stocks are pricey.
Since Kickstarter’s launch in 2009, 18 million people have backed projects. The math when paying down debt is simple – if your loan is currently at 7% and you refinance at 3%, that’s equivalent to a 4% return on your money! You can join Kickstarter to launch a project or to help back others’ projects.
My mom was a math teacher so — RITHOLTZ: Okay. Some famous periods of reversals in market, the most famous spring of 2009 when we came off the GFC. He’s the genius in math. First time I learned poker to play in this Math for America Tournament, I didn’t know a whole of them. RITHOLTZ: Yeah.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. And so graduating right into 2009, right out of the financial crisis, I said, I don’t think I’m gonna get a job. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. And I just caught the bug.
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting. 00:10:08 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so I graduated from HBS in summer of 2009 and I was fortunate enough to join the Grassroots Business Fund, which had been a division of the International Finance Corporation and literally spun out first half of 2008.
Unfortunately for these people, the minimum wage has not increased since 2009, nor, to state the obvious, has it kept up with inflation. If you're curious to learn how the math behind this, read this piece from Econompic. While this represents just a small slice of the working population, another 20.6
And what we figured out in 2009, really when we started buying homes is that we made the bet that it, I mean, it wasn’t a very exotic bet, but we made the bet that the subprime mortgage market wasn’t coming back at all. And so, so starting in 2009, we, we, there was no flip market. So I had real support around Wall Street.
Colin Camerer : So I, some of it was when I was in college at Johns Hopkins, I, I studied physics and math. And there was people, Physics didn’t have, people, psychology didn’t have math, economics was kind of the right mix. The math doesn’t math. That was too abstract. Yeah, I’m gonna vote.
And I said, I’ll go get a master’s and things will be better in 2009, because these are one year programs. I mean, you’re talking about, I don’t, I could do the math, it’s like a 10,000% return in like three weeks. And that’s sort of the math. RITHOLTZ: Right. He was right on the thesis.
So moved over to London back in 2009 and the rest is history. 00:43:02 [Speaker Changed] I think the one that’s most salient that we track most closely, Barry, is the fact that because the math broke at the investor level in N 22, early 23, we’re still playing catch up on that. Have been a resident of London.
RITHOLTZ: So wait, you’re, I’m trying to do the math, if you were 24 in ‘08, so you got this watch in 2000, 99? Squarespace, and I love those guys, they were really instrumental to the growth of Hodinkee, allowed me to design my own website in 2009 until probably 2012 or 2013, when we got a professional upgrade.
So, I did the math, 20 million times a hundred. So, let me just repeat the math. And so, again, I went through this simple math. He lost 40 pounds and he eventually went to the prison doctor and they diagnosed him as having pancreatitis and gallstones and needing an operation which was scheduled for the 1st of August 2009.
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