Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. With the exception of the early stages of the pandemic, the decrease in total new sales was the sharpest since 2009. November even saw increasing numbers of suppliers, factories and service providers offering discounts to help boost flagging sales. October: 47.8). 3-month low. 30-month low.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 9, 2022

Back in early 2009, I wrote a couple of posts arguing there would be an increase in auto sales - Vehicle Sales (Jan 2009) and Looking for the Sun (Feb 2009). This was an out-of-the-consensus call and helped me call the bottom for the US economy in mid-2009. Here is another update to the U.S. fleet turnover graph.

Sales 83

Sales Numbers Economy 83

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 27, 2023

Brief excerpt: I’ve heard some positive comments from a number of real estate agents in the last week about the existing home market. Way back in 2009, I pointed out that there are usually two bottoms for housing. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Has Housing "Bottomed"? And some upbeat comments on new home sales.

Sales 110

Sales Numbers Investing Investments 110

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 21, 2023

From ICE (formerly Black Knight): ICE First Look at November Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Historically Low Despite Seasonal Rise; Performance of Recent Originations Worth Watching • The national delinquency rate edged higher to 3.39% in November – down 10 basis points (bps) from the same time last year – but remains 64 bps below pre-pandemic (..)

Numbers 59

Numbers Sales 59

Fortune Financial

OCTOBER 14, 2024

It has been my experience when reviewing portfolios that diversification is typically expressed simply as a number of various stocks owned, or owning a handful of asset classes, usually stocks of various sizes and geographies, and bonds of varying maturities.

Asset Allocation 131

Asset Allocation Government Financial Advisor Portfolio 131

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 10, 2022

Question of the Day Q: Did the beat the street numbers put a Fed pivot back in play? The yield on the two-year Treasury note fell to 4.32% from 4.63%, the biggest one-day decline since 2008 The 10-year yield fell to 3.83% from 4.15%, the biggest one-day drop since 2009. percent year over year. Actual was 0.4 month over month vs 0.7

Marketing 181

Marketing Marketing Food Numbers 181

The Big Picture

AUGUST 24, 2023

Not that well: Ironically, even 2 years later in 2009, Fortune was still on the fence, seemingly rooting for RIMM while missing a massive disruptive change already taking place. Don’t get me wrong, Apple is sure to gain smartphone share quickly, and its iPhone is so new that it didn’t even register in the spring numbers.

Media 246

Media Numbers Marketing Marketing 246

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 17, 2023

20,000 is not just a number; but happiness for many. Nifty 50 first hit 10,000 on July 26, 2017, and it took years to double that number. The best month for Nifty50 returns was in May 2009, with an impressive 28.07%, and October 2007 was also remarkable, with a 17.51% gain. in 2009, just a year after the financial crisis.

Investing 59

Investing Investments Valuation Numbers 59

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 27, 2024

Bonus issues raise the total number of a company’s outstanding shares, making each share less valuable on paper while increasing market liquidity. Previously, Reliance announced a 1:1 bonus issue in 2009, with similar issues in 1997. As a result, the stock price has been adjusted to reflect this change.

Financial Services 64

Financial Services Investment Advisor Consulting Planning 64

Carson Wealth

JULY 8, 2024

These numbers can and will be revised, and so it helps to look at the 3-month average. That number has been trending down since earlier this year, but it’s at a healthy 177,000 right now, above the 166,000 average pace in 2019. Not exactly weak (the hiring rate collapsed below 3% during the 2008-2009 recession), but not too hot either.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

MARCH 16, 2023

This caused a fear over the weekend that we might see a repeat of 2007-2009. This explainer will lay out what happened, what the response was and why this is not like 2007-2009. Is this like 2007-2009? What happened at Silicon Valley Bank (and the other banks that failed): An old-fashioned bank run! In our view, no.

Banking 98

Banking Insurance Assets Startup 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 22, 2023

It is very difficult to do but anyone able to pull that off would obviously have a smoother ride and if you play with the numbers, you'd see that you'd come out ahead over the long term. Amusingly, about the only content I found was stuff I'd written including this at Seeking Alpha from October, 2009. ARBFX 3.7%

Portfolio 74

Portfolio Asset Allocation Accounting Management 74

Good Financial Cents

AUGUST 14, 2023

The creator(s) of this first-of-its-kind asset developed the cryptocurrency in response to the Great Recession of 2007-2009 , spurred by a distrust of the traditional banking system and concerns about its stability. Initial Price Number of Bitcoins purchased Final Value 10 years (2013-2023) $13.30 5 years (2018-2023) $7,438.67 $29,310.44

Assets 119

Assets Investing Investments Numbers 119

MarketWatch

MAY 8, 2023

The Post report cited a source as saying a number of directors and institutional investors think CEO Freda, who has held the role since July 2009, has lost his touch, and are now recruiting shareholder activists. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Recruitment 40

Recruitment Numbers Sales Management 40

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

Description Peak Month* Trough Month* Change in Earnings Estimates Date When S&P 500 Index Price Hit Bottom Date When S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Hit Bottom Number of Days S&P 500 Return During That Period Asian Financial Crisis/Russian debt default September 1998 December 1998 -2.2% Great Financial Crisis October 2007 April 2009 -39.0%

Clients 98

Clients Economy Economics Investments 98

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

Even more impressive is the past four times this happened (1997, 2003, 2009, and 2020) all saw at least double-digit returns. We didn’t even see significant revisions to March and April payroll numbers, and the 3-month average now sits at 249,000. MAY”be we have a positive signal from the strong May. Did you see what I did there?

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 143

The Irrelevant Investor

JANUARY 12, 2022

If we start from 1950, that number collapses to 16.5%. Since 1950, the market fell 40% three times; 1974, 2002**, and 2009. None of these numbers include dividends, but I'm also not backing out inflation, so more or less a wash The post Bear Markets Suck appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor. investors experienced?

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Numbers Portfolio 52

The Irrelevant Investor

FEBRUARY 20, 2020

I had Nick Maggiulli run some numbers for me on what a 60/40 levered portfolio would have done compared to the unlevered version. Prior to 2009, we used SPY and IEF and multiplied each daily return by three times, like the levered ETFs do. Near the stock market bottom in 2009, bonds were almost 90% of the portfolio!

Risk Tolerance 52

Risk Tolerance Portfolio Numbers Marketing 52

Carson Wealth

APRIL 1, 2024

Looking at the numbers, more good news could be in store for the bulls. But the odds favor more green numbers. Considering the market impact, there have been only two streaks of LEI monthly declines similar to the one we just broke — a 22-month streak ending in March 1975 and a 24-month streak ending in March 2009.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 97

Trade Brains

JANUARY 20, 2023

The Satyam scam (Satyam computers scam) was finally exposed early in 2009. As the investors were still coping up with the failed acquisition of Maytas and the allegations by the World Bank on January 7th, 2009 the markets received the resignation by Mr Raju and along with it a confession that he had manipulated accounts of Rs.

Banking 131

Banking Accounting Ethics Sales 131

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 28, 2023

This indicator essentially focuses on the number of people who attempt to get into relationships to feel better when the economy is not functioning properly. During tough times, like the 2009 financial crisis, Detroit saw a rise in the number of unclaimed bodies at its morgue, and the government spent a massive amount of money on burials.

Economy 64

Economy Economics Sales Government 64

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 9, 2023

He didn't specify which of the two (I believe that is the correct number) funds that Hussman managed back then. For 20 years, holy cow, the numbers look great. The ten year numbers tell a much different story due, I think, to the fund's large allocation to gold. Put it all in the yellow line and forget about then?

Asset Allocation 75

Asset Allocation Portfolio Assets Numbers 75

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Job Changes During Recessions Year Job Change Recession 1974 -379 '73-'75 1975 365 '73-'75 1980 271 '80 1981 -48 '81-'82 1982 -2,124 '81-'82 1990 330 '90-'91 1991 -838 '90-91 2001 -1,727 '01 2002 -510 '01 2008 -3,553 '07-'09 2009 -5,051 '07-'09 2020 -9,292 '20 The 2020 recession was due to the pandemic. But those losses are already coming.

Economy 94

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 94

Validea

SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

By Justin Carbonneau ( Twitter | LinkedIn | YouTube ) — Over the past few weeks, I’ve seen a number of charts highlighting the opportunity in small-cap stocks given their absolute and relative valuations. There are a number of risk-based drivers that explain some of the valuation spreads that currently exist. Only 12.4%

Valuation 64

Valuation Economics Numbers Investing 64

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 27, 2023

Investors should be careful of listening to those who seem to have everything figured out given the number of moving parts and lack of historical precedent. In the 31-year history of the KBW Bank Index, the 30% decline in March was only exceeded by a 35% loss in January 2009 in the later stages of the global financial crisis.

Banking 98

Banking Marketing Marketing Economics 98

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 27, 2023

Barry Ritholtz : I have a vivid recollection of people in 2009 and 2010. [Yes] That’s what aspirational pricing is where you’re throwing the number out that’s so high that, but you have everybody around you doing the same thing. There’s sort of safety in numbers, yet you don’t ever sell your home.

Sales 147

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

As of December, looking at the "dot plot" , the FOMC participants see the following number of rate hikes in 2023: 25 bp Rate Hikes FOMC Members 2023 No Change 0 One Rate Hike 0 Two Rate Hikes 2 Three Rate Hikes 10 Four Rate Hikes 5 Five Rate Hikes 2 Clearly the main view of the FOMC is three or even four rate hikes in 2023.

Economy 94

Economy Economics Numbers Sales 94

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 21, 2024

And so there was a number of less liquid markets that made for quite wide spreads. And so there was certainly a number of different movements, but there was certainly downside of these things. And you know, I think ultimately there was a number of opportunities that came out. And so we have a number of business lines.

Numbers 147

Numbers Banking Investments Investing 147

Zoe Financial

DECEMBER 5, 2023

One data point caught my attention: the number of advised investors, individual investors, has increased from 35% to 47% when you look at the time frame from 2009 to today. .” Over the last year, they interviewed over 11,000 households with over $250,000 of investable assets. Definitely worth checking out.

Wealth Management 52

Wealth Management Management Financial Planning Taxes 52

The Irrelevant Investor

MAY 6, 2020

These numbers are expected to break the charts in April, with Toyota saying they experienced a 55.7% The ISM manufacturing index fell to the lowest level since 2009. This comes from Jason Goepfert , who puts out tons of great charts. . Total vehicle sales fell 34% in March. decline, and Honda in the same boat, saw sales fall by 54.1%

Sales 52

Sales Retail Manufacturing Government 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MAY 30, 2023

That worst year column is noteworthy, those numbers come from 2008. Running the same study from 2009 to 2021 avoiding those two bad years shows a different result. There's four more basis points for CAGR which is given back in standard deviation. 2022 was a similar story with Portfolio 1 down 11.70% versus a drop of 16.87% for VBAIX.

Portfolio 75

Portfolio Management Investments Investing 75

The Irrelevant Investor

MARCH 7, 2017

The S&P 500 fell 57.69% from October 2007 to March 2009, but real earnings fell even more, from a high of $98.43 in April 2009, a 91.86% decline. and replaced the next 75 months with that number (that's how long it took to get back above $98.43). in June 2007 to a low of $8.01 I wish this were the case.

Numbers 52

Numbers Investing Investments Marketing 52

The Irrelevant Investor

OCTOBER 4, 2017

In 2009, the world's economy was experiencing pain like it hadn't seen since the 1930s. Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke The World , was published in January 2009, and although it received a Pulitzer Prize, it's not one you see on many people's lists.

Economy 52

Economy Numbers Economics 52

Calculated Risk

JULY 30, 2023

The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). The Heartland Tri-State Bank was closed on Friday , but wasn't on the unofficial list. Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public.

Banking 52

Banking Assets Media Numbers 52

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. All of these events are possible, but they are unpredictable, and the probabilities are low that they will happen in the next few years or even decades. 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 144

Sales Economy Engineering Investments 144

Carson Wealth

MARCH 27, 2023

Recent sentiment polls show a high number of bears while worries about the economy and earnings continue to expand. Think back to March 2003, March 2009, and March 2020. However, since that time a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers, came in. Why is this a good thing?

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Banking Economics 52

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2024

Michael Mauboussin : Survival might be number one. Blame would probably be number two. What you’re really referencing are deep seated psychological reasons for wanting to seek safety in numbers. The psychology of going against the crowd, the perfect expert for today’s topic. Why is it so damn hard to fight the crowd?

Investing 195

Investing Investments Assets Numbers 195