A Wealth of Common Sense

JUNE 23, 2024

Here’s a good follow-up question on these numbers: This is a legitimate concern. Since the start of 2009, the S&P 500 has seen returns of 14.5% I posted the following on Twitter this week: It’s turning into another banner year for the U.S. stock market (so far). That’s not just a pandemic phenomenon either.

Marketing 138

Marketing Marketing Numbers 138

The Big Picture

MAY 31, 2024

Prior to joining DoubleLine in 2009, Sherman was a senior vice president at TCW Group Inc. He is host of the podcast The Sherman Show and a CFA charter holder. We discuss how he began as a math major but didn’t want to go into physics, engineering or academia, so finance was the next logical career option.

Asset Allocation 189

Asset Allocation Math Portfolio Management Engineering 189

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. All of these events are possible, but they are unpredictable, and the probabilities are low that they will happen in the next few years or even decades. 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investments 361

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 21, 2023

From ICE (formerly Black Knight): ICE First Look at November Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Historically Low Despite Seasonal Rise; Performance of Recent Originations Worth Watching • The national delinquency rate edged higher to 3.39% in November – down 10 basis points (bps) from the same time last year – but remains 64 bps below pre-pandemic (..)

Numbers 147

Numbers Sales 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Job Changes During Recessions Year Job Change Recession 1974 -379 '73-'75 1975 365 '73-'75 1980 271 '80 1981 -48 '81-'82 1982 -2,124 '81-'82 1990 330 '90-'91 1991 -838 '90-91 2001 -1,727 '01 2002 -510 '01 2008 -3,553 '07-'09 2009 -5,051 '07-'09 2020 -9,292 '20 The 2020 recession was due to the pandemic. But those losses are already coming.

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. All of these events are possible, but they are unpredictable, and the probabilities are low that they will happen in the next few years or even decades. 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investments 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

As of December, looking at the "dot plot" , the FOMC participants see the following number of rate hikes in 2023: 25 bp Rate Hikes FOMC Members 2023 No Change 0 One Rate Hike 0 Two Rate Hikes 2 Three Rate Hikes 10 Four Rate Hikes 5 Five Rate Hikes 2 Clearly the main view of the FOMC is three or even four rate hikes in 2023.

Economy 236

Economy Numbers Economics Sales 236

The Big Picture

AUGUST 24, 2023

Not that well: Ironically, even 2 years later in 2009, Fortune was still on the fence, seemingly rooting for RIMM while missing a massive disruptive change already taking place. Don’t get me wrong, Apple is sure to gain smartphone share quickly, and its iPhone is so new that it didn’t even register in the spring numbers.

Media 246

Media Numbers Marketing Marketing 246

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 10, 2022

Question of the Day Q: Did the beat the street numbers put a Fed pivot back in play? The yield on the two-year Treasury note fell to 4.32% from 4.63%, the biggest one-day decline since 2008 The 10-year yield fell to 3.83% from 4.15%, the biggest one-day drop since 2009. percent year over year. Actual was 0.4 month over month vs 0.7

Marketing 181

Marketing Marketing Food Numbers 181

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. All of these events are possible, but they are unpredictable, and the probabilities are low that they will happen in the next few years or even decades. 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 1, 2023

The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public.

Banking 230

Banking Assets Media Insurance 230

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 27, 2024

Bonus issues raise the total number of a company’s outstanding shares, making each share less valuable on paper while increasing market liquidity. Previously, Reliance announced a 1:1 bonus issue in 2009, with similar issues in 1997. As a result, the stock price has been adjusted to reflect this change.

Financial Services 64

Financial Services Investment Advisor Planning Consulting 64

Fortune Financial

OCTOBER 14, 2024

It has been my experience when reviewing portfolios that diversification is typically expressed simply as a number of various stocks owned, or owning a handful of asset classes, usually stocks of various sizes and geographies, and bonds of varying maturities.

Asset Allocation 131

Asset Allocation Government Portfolio Financial Advisor 131

Calculated Risk

JULY 30, 2023

The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). The Heartland Tri-State Bank was closed on Friday , but wasn't on the unofficial list. Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public.

Banking 130

Banking Assets Media Numbers 130

The Big Picture

JANUARY 21, 2025

Barry Ritholtz : The the funny thing is, the behavioral aspect of mutual funds seems to have been when people finally learn about a manager who’s put up great numbers, by the time it makes to make makes it to Forbes, hey, most of that run is probably over and a little mean reversion is about to kick in.

Investments 147

Investments Investing Management Retirement 147

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2025

Bitcoin broke through that in 2008, 2009, and it’s been gaining steady adoption. I recall 10 years ago, crazy numbers, something like a lot of hacks, a lot of thefts. It’s built on a major technical innovation called the blockchain, which took 40 years to develop, trying to figure out how to make this possible.

Assets 130

Assets Investing Investments Banking 130

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public.

Banking 147

Banking Assets Media Insurance 147

Trade Brains

JANUARY 20, 2023

The Satyam scam (Satyam computers scam) was finally exposed early in 2009. As the investors were still coping up with the failed acquisition of Maytas and the allegations by the World Bank on January 7th, 2009 the markets received the resignation by Mr Raju and along with it a confession that he had manipulated accounts of Rs.

Banking 131

Banking Accounting Ethics Sales 131

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

MARCH 16, 2023

This caused a fear over the weekend that we might see a repeat of 2007-2009. This explainer will lay out what happened, what the response was and why this is not like 2007-2009. Is this like 2007-2009? What happened at Silicon Valley Bank (and the other banks that failed): An old-fashioned bank run! In our view, no.

Banking 98

Banking Insurance Assets Startup 98

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

Even more impressive is the past four times this happened (1997, 2003, 2009, and 2020) all saw at least double-digit returns. We didn’t even see significant revisions to March and April payroll numbers, and the 3-month average now sits at 249,000. MAY”be we have a positive signal from the strong May. Did you see what I did there?

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 143

Good Financial Cents

AUGUST 14, 2023

The creator(s) of this first-of-its-kind asset developed the cryptocurrency in response to the Great Recession of 2007-2009 , spurred by a distrust of the traditional banking system and concerns about its stability. Initial Price Number of Bitcoins purchased Final Value 10 years (2013-2023) $13.30 5 years (2018-2023) $7,438.67 $29,310.44

Assets 119

Assets Investments Investing Numbers 119

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

The last two highlight the challenges of keeping up with changing markets and technology, as GM declared bankruptcy in 2009 and Kodak in 2012. Monthly numbers can be noisy and so a 3-month average is helpful. Also in the top 10 in the early 70s, several oil companies, Eastman Kodak, and General Motors. million average per year).

Marketing 73

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 73

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2022

What makes Graham so interesting is while everybody else in the world of private equity is focused on the analytics and crunching numbers and creating econometric models that will tell you where to invest, I think they’ve found a very different model that has been extremely successful for them, where the key focus is on talent.

Consulting 298

Consulting Numbers Management Investments 298

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

Description Peak Month* Trough Month* Change in Earnings Estimates Date When S&P 500 Index Price Hit Bottom Date When S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Hit Bottom Number of Days S&P 500 Return During That Period Asian Financial Crisis/Russian debt default September 1998 December 1998 -2.2% Great Financial Crisis October 2007 April 2009 -39.0%

Clients 98

Clients Economy Economics Marketing 98

Carson Wealth

JULY 8, 2024

These numbers can and will be revised, and so it helps to look at the 3-month average. That number has been trending down since earlier this year, but it’s at a healthy 177,000 right now, above the 166,000 average pace in 2019. Not exactly weak (the hiring rate collapsed below 3% during the 2008-2009 recession), but not too hot either.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

The Better Letter

MARCH 18, 2025

Nigl’s bracket finally went bust on game 50 (the third game on the second weekend) when three seed Purdue defeated number two Tennessee, 99-94, in overtime. And about 60 percent of national champions are one of the four number one seeds. A roulette wheel hitting the same number seven times in a row ( one in three billion ).

Numbers 75

Numbers Marketing Marketing Medicine 75

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2024

Michael Mauboussin : Survival might be number one. Blame would probably be number two. What you’re really referencing are deep seated psychological reasons for wanting to seek safety in numbers. The psychology of going against the crowd, the perfect expert for today’s topic. Why is it so damn hard to fight the crowd?

Investments 195

Investments Investing Assets Numbers 195

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 27, 2023

Barry Ritholtz : I have a vivid recollection of people in 2009 and 2010. [Yes] That’s what aspirational pricing is where you’re throwing the number out that’s so high that, but you have everybody around you doing the same thing. There’s sort of safety in numbers, yet you don’t ever sell your home.

Sales 147

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 3, 2023

The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public.

Banking 130

Banking Assets Media Management 130

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 27, 2023

Investors should be careful of listening to those who seem to have everything figured out given the number of moving parts and lack of historical precedent. In the 31-year history of the KBW Bank Index, the 30% decline in March was only exceeded by a 35% loss in January 2009 in the later stages of the global financial crisis.

Banking 98

Banking Marketing Marketing Economics 98

The Irrelevant Investor

FEBRUARY 20, 2020

I had Nick Maggiulli run some numbers for me on what a 60/40 levered portfolio would have done compared to the unlevered version. Prior to 2009, we used SPY and IEF and multiplied each daily return by three times, like the levered ETFs do. Near the stock market bottom in 2009, bonds were almost 90% of the portfolio!

Risk Tolerance 52

Risk Tolerance Portfolio Numbers Marketing 52

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 17, 2023

20,000 is not just a number; but happiness for many. Nifty 50 first hit 10,000 on July 26, 2017, and it took years to double that number. The best month for Nifty50 returns was in May 2009, with an impressive 28.07%, and October 2007 was also remarkable, with a 17.51% gain. in 2009, just a year after the financial crisis.

Investments 59

Investments Investing Numbers Valuation 59

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 22, 2023

It is very difficult to do but anyone able to pull that off would obviously have a smoother ride and if you play with the numbers, you'd see that you'd come out ahead over the long term. Amusingly, about the only content I found was stuff I'd written including this at Seeking Alpha from October, 2009. ARBFX 3.7%

Portfolio 74

Portfolio Asset Allocation Accounting Management 74

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 9, 2023

He didn't specify which of the two (I believe that is the correct number) funds that Hussman managed back then. For 20 years, holy cow, the numbers look great. The ten year numbers tell a much different story due, I think, to the fund's large allocation to gold. Put it all in the yellow line and forget about then?

Asset Allocation 75

Asset Allocation Portfolio Assets Numbers 75

Carson Wealth

APRIL 1, 2024

Looking at the numbers, more good news could be in store for the bulls. But the odds favor more green numbers. Considering the market impact, there have been only two streaks of LEI monthly declines similar to the one we just broke — a 22-month streak ending in March 1975 and a 24-month streak ending in March 2009.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 97

The Irrelevant Investor

MARCH 7, 2017

The S&P 500 fell 57.69% from October 2007 to March 2009, but real earnings fell even more, from a high of $98.43 in April 2009, a 91.86% decline. and replaced the next 75 months with that number (that's how long it took to get back above $98.43). in June 2007 to a low of $8.01 I wish this were the case.

Numbers 52

Numbers Investments Investing Marketing 52

The Irrelevant Investor

OCTOBER 4, 2017

In 2009, the world's economy was experiencing pain like it hadn't seen since the 1930s. Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke The World , was published in January 2009, and although it received a Pulitzer Prize, it's not one you see on many people's lists.

Economy 52

Economy Numbers Economics 52