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The S&P 500 has only posted one year of negative returns greater than 1% since 2009. This helps to illustrate the fact that market corrections are common over most periods of time and should be viewed as the market resetting stock valuations back to a more fundamental level. – Nate Condon.
Between 2000 – 2009, the cumulative total return for the S&P 500 was negative 9.1% From 2000 to the end of 2009, the global allocation would have outperformed by nearly 8.8% Valuations. Valuations outside of the United States have been much cheaper to the long-run averages for quite some time. vs positive 30.7%
Over the last 25 years, we have seen four bear markets (1999-2002, 2008-2009, 2020, 2022) and numerous market corrections (10% losses). This means you might experience more significant fluctuations in the value of your investment, which requires a higher risktolerance.
This includes articulating a policy with regard to investment risktolerance, long-term goals, cash flow needs and sector diversification. This helps to meet your immediate needs and instill discipline in a longterm context, averting excessive spending when valuations are rising.
While we acknowledge that a V-shaped recovery is probably not in the cards and prior valuation targets no longer appear achievable, we remain constructive on equities for the second half, but not complacent. Remember stock valuations are inversely correlated to inflation and interest rates. So a P/E over 20 is probably too rich.
And what we figured out in 2009, really when we started buying homes is that we made the bet that it, I mean, it wasn’t a very exotic bet, but we made the bet that the subprime mortgage market wasn’t coming back at all. And so, so starting in 2009, we, we, there was no flip market. So it’s very long dated capital.
The stock market has increased more than 7-fold in value since the 2009 stock market lows, even in the face of many frightening news stories (see Ed Yardeni’s list of panic attacks since 2009 ). COVID, inflation, and Federal Reserve monetary policies may dominate the headlines du jour but this is nothing new.
Barry Ritholtz : So I wanna wrap my head around a large insurer like MassMutual as a client, I would imagine very long term in perspective, but I don’t really grasp what sort of risktolerance an insurance company has. What is that sort of risk embracing, like how, how does that settle out?
00:09:48 [Speaker Changed] And, and then in January, 2009, we we’re deep into the financial crisis. So that was a big job in the spring of, of 2009. But, you know, it was very touch, touch, touch and go there in the first part of 2009. I said, no, Bob, I don’t think my, my risktolerance is, is, is right for that.
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