Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

Bankruptcies fell especially sharply after the pandemic began in early 2020, despite some COVID-related disruptions to the economy. Despite the recent increases, the newest totals remain far lower than in December 2010, when filings peaked at just less than 1.6 Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 331

Economy 331

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2022

Though annual appreciation was still strong, it slowed from the previous month for the second consecutive month, reflecting reduced buyer demand in part due to higher mortgage rates and worries about a slowing economy. by June 2023, bringing home price growth close to the long run average from 2010 to 2020.

Economy 321

Economy Sales Marketing Marketing 321

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 21, 2024

This now marks the lengthiest period of declining billings since 2010 , although it is reassuring that the pace of this decline is less rapid and the broader economy showed improvement in January,” said Kermit Baker, PhD, AIA Chief Economist. Any score below 50.0 indicates decreasing business conditions.

Economy 309

Economy Investing Investments Clients 309

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. This is now happening , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. This has happened , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

The Big Picture

AUGUST 17, 2022

Morningstar, August 9, 2010. Dangerous for economy. Russel Kinnel. Previously : Don’t Blame Morningstar for Our Own Shortcomings (October 26, 2017). Top 10 Investor Errors: Excess Fees (June 30, 2012). Passive investing is: Marxist. Devouring capitalism. Reached a mania. Lobotomized investing. Poses a frightening systemic risk.

Taxes 334

Taxes Portfolio Management Investing 334

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

Holding onto expectations of major shifts in key drivers of the markets and the economy – merely due to the changing of the calendar – is a carryover from the days when the calendar mattered much more. Consider: From 2010 through 2021, The S&P500 Index gained 330% — a little over 13% annually (not including dividends).

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. My sense is growth will stay sluggish in 2023, but the economy will avoid recession.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

The Big Picture

MARCH 10, 2023

The FOMC seems a little panicky; the result is the Fed is breaking things throughout the economy. What we got instead was a spike in inflation that was initially ignored, and then belatedly overcompensated for. The Federal Reserve has become the bear in the China shop. There are many errors Jerome Powell & Co.

Banking 342

Banking Assets Management Economy 342

A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 5, 2023

These were some of the prevailing narratives from the post-GFC world: We only had a bull market in the 2010s because of the Fed juicing the economy. The Fed was trying to juice the economy in the 2010. The only reason tech stocks did well is because of low interest rates.

Economy 134

Economy Marketing Marketing 134

Carson Wealth

MARCH 10, 2025

The worries are growing, from a potentially slowing economy, to a growing and more aggressive trade war, to worries over Washington policy. Then five years ago we shut down our economy during a once-a-century pandemic. The economy created 151,000 jobs in February, more or less consistent with expectations.

Marketing 73

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 73

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 28, 2023

However, there are many other lesser-known indicators that can actually provide valuable insights and are helpful for the economy. Back in the autumn of 2001, he noticed that when the US economy was struggling due to the recession, lipstick sales were actually going up instead of down. Keep reading to find out what they are!

Economy 64

Economy Economics Sales Government 64

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

The economy has strong momentum, with growth accelerating since the first half of the year. Let’s Call It Like It Is: The Economy Is Strong, and There’s No Recession on the Horizon A year ago, a Bloomberg Economics model projected a recession within the next 12 months with 100% probability. Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4%

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 143

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. How the consumer is tapped out, the economy is headed for a recession, only a few stocks are going up, and so on endlessly. What Matters for the Economy: Consumption (and Incomes) Consumption runs on incomes, and the picture there is positive.

Marketing 142

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 142

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 29, 2024

Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. The economy ran above trend last year, despite high interest rates. Economy: This Time Was Different, and That’s a Big Deal The U.S. economy grew 5.8% And that is what is happening now.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 96

Carson Wealth

APRIL 29, 2024

The Headline GDP Number Masks a Strong Economy The economy grew 1.6% Excluding these categories provides a much clearer picture of actual spending and production in the economy, i.e., final demand after adjusting for inflation. in the first quarter, well above the 2010-2019 average pace of 2.4%. Think of it like core GDP.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 96

Discipline Funds

FEBRUARY 21, 2024

Macroeconomics is the study of aggregate economies or large components of the economy. It takes years and decades for economies to grow, contract, grow and grow. I spent most of the 2010’s writing articles debunking macroeconomic myths. Let me explain.

Investing 121

Investing Investments Taxes Portfolio 121

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

ECONOMY The economy saw blockbuster productivity growth in the third quarter. ECONOMY: PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH COULD BE A GAME CHANGER Lost in all the consternation over a weak payroll report this month was robust productivity data, which was released earlier. annual pace, which is faster than the 2010-2019 pace of 1.2%.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Startup 96

Carson Wealth

MAY 13, 2024

While some cracks may be forming, the economy remains on firm footing. Our Leading Economic Indicators Still Point to a Strong Economy A couple of softer-than-expected economic report cards recently came in — first quarter GDP growth and the April payroll report — and suddenly, calls for an impending recession have resumed.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 97

Discipline Funds

APRIL 3, 2024

They were pushing back on this idea that the US economy is just muddling along. And here’s the data: From 1950 to 2010 Real GDP averaged 3.4%. An economy that was “hot” or potentially “overheating” was typically something in the 5%+ growth range. From 2010 to the present RGDP has averaged just 2.3%.

Economy 58

Economy 58

Discipline Funds

JULY 18, 2023

This 2010 NBER paper found that the yield curve i s not as predictive as you might think if you only looked at US data. But the curve typically inverts when there’s a problem in the economy and the Fed views current inflation as being too high. After all, it has a nearly flawless track record predicting recessions in the USA.

Economy 98

Economy Marketing Marketing Banking 98

Investing Caffeine

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Economy Remains Healthy : As mentioned earlier, the constant barrage of recession calls over the last two years has been blatantly wrong. As you can see, employment was on a tear pre-COVID, adding about 20 million jobs from 2010 to 2020. briefly at the end of October. growth rate (see chart below).

Economy 91

Economy CFP Economics Investing 91

Carson Wealth

JULY 24, 2023

economy has accelerated over the past year, defying calls of recession amid the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes. In sum: Not only is there no recession, but the economy does not even appear to be headed for a “landing” at this point. Right now, it says the economy grew 2.4% Recent data suggest a major slowdown is not in the cards.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 98

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 8, 2024

A “Goldilocks” December jobs report highlights sustained momentum for the economy as it continues its path to normalization. Goldilocks Job Numbers as Economy Powers Ahead The December payroll report was strong on the surface, with 216,000 jobs created last month and the unemployment rate firm at 3.7%. History says to expect it.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Carson Wealth

JULY 29, 2024

Q2 GDP Growth Confirms Economic Resilience The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% It’s a very solid, but not spectacular, number, just in the top half of all quarters since 2010, but looking at it in the context of the rate environment shows just how resilient the economy has been. almost broke the economy in 2019.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Transportation 96

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 9, 2023

The ripple effect of these rate hikes can be felt throughout the economy in the form of higher mortgage and consumer loan interest rates, potentially making things more expensive for people looking to buy a home or car. It wasn’t that long ago that inflation was almost non-existent in the economy. 5%, never even topping 1%.

Retirement 98

Retirement Clients Certification Taxes 98

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 12, 2024

2010 had a European banking crisis. Taken together these numbers tell us that hiring has slowed but concerns about the economy have not led to a big pick-up in layoffs. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Numbers Economy 95

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 11, 2023

Strong wage growth and lower inflation have helped the economy stay resilient. Why Has the Economy Stayed Resilient? A large part of the economy’s resilience has to do with a strong labor market that has surprised many economists and market-watchers. September can be a rough month for stocks, but it doesn’t have to be bad.

Marketing 92

Marketing Marketing Government Economy 92

Carson Wealth

MARCH 25, 2024

A Dovish Fed Signals Rate Cuts Amid a Strong Economy — That’s Bullish The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at its March meeting, but the headline takeaway was that the median official continues to project three interest rate cuts in 2024, each worth 0.25%. That’s a big jump and acknowledgement that the economy is strong.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 96

The Big Picture

APRIL 4, 2024

And without that, you know, investment in the economy, we weren’t going to get the economy forward. This is not the 2009, 2010 to 2020 period where basically all you needed was. And so the fear was that they were just going to all pilot in the tertiary bills and they were never going to move into risk assets.

Portfolio 162

Portfolio Management Assets Banking 162

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

The economy continues to surprise to the upside, as we will discuss more below. With earnings hitting new highs and the economy continuing to expand, it’s no wonder stocks have hit 42 new all-time highs in 2024. The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.4% The reason for the rally? But let’s not lose sight of the big picture.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Economics 95

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 18, 2023

He once again emphasized that the risk of not doing enough to curb inflation was now balanced with the risk of holding rates too high for too long (and potentially breaking the economy in the process). Lower interest rates can have significant positive effects on the economy, including on mortgage rates.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Economy Investing 95

The Irrelevant Investor

AUGUST 10, 2016

Today I want to revisit what was potentially the most disruptive distraction to one's financial well-being since that time; the double-dip recession scares that first arrived in 2010, and then revisited investors in 2011. Double-Dip first came to the scene in 2010 when the S&P 500 fell 17%. We are going to have a new recession."

Economics 52

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 52

Fortune Financial

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

Older generations, too, are active in the pet economy as their pets afford them companionship now that their children have largely left the house. According to investment firm Thornburg, the average household size has fallen from around ~3.5 members to ~2.5

Food 95

Food Budgeting Financial Advisor Economics 95

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

But, given the Fed’s current primary focus of achieving price stability, the steamy data raise the odds of more tightening from the Fed and, consequently, a likely hard landing for the economy. Existing home sales declined for a 12 th straight month, falling to their lowest level since 2010. percent range by mid-year.

Economics 98

Economics Sales Manufacturing Economy 98

Validea

OCTOBER 17, 2022

The value investing strategy—acquiring shares of companies that are trading below their fair market value—had fallen out of favor in the 2010-2020 decade as high growth businesses dominated the market. That indicates that value is particularly sensitive to the ups and downs of the economy, making it a “pro-cyclical” factor.

Investing 59

Investing Investments Portfolio Economy 59