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Seattle Redux: Misunderstanding Seasonal Adjustments

The Big Picture

Barry has written extensively about denominator blindness, i.e. throwing out a number without any context whatsoever. Well, the number is actually very close to the latter (1.470 million): So, 10k on 1.470 million is less than 1 percent — 0.68% to be exact. certain that the Journal got the number from BLS. But whatever.

Food 335
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Trying To Learn From Risk Parity

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Kurtosis is a very fancy word where the higher the number, the greater the risk of an outlier result like 2022. A lower number is a mathematical representation of smoothing out the ride via fewer/smaller outlier results. The math is only off by a shade using leverage via UST and a little bit of SSO, remember RPAR is leveraged.

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Bracketology (2024 Edition)

The Better Letter

And about 60 percent of national champions are one of the four number one seeds. A roulette wheel hitting the same number seven times in a row ( one in three billion ). During the 2010 World Cup, Paul the Octopus picked the correct winner of eight-straight matches, including the final (his odds of doing so were one in 256 ).

Numbers 82
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The importance of evaluating social factors in mortgage bond analysis

Brown Advisory

Additionally, underbuilding in the years following the subprime mortgage and global financial crisis of 2007-2010 resulted in a systemic shortage of housing that has driven rapid appreciation in home prices and rental costs alike. High-income homeowners reaped more than 70% of the $8.2 trillion increase in the value of U.S.

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Transcript: Elizabeth Burton, Goldman Sachs Asset Management

The Big Picture

One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics. So people really ask you, you take French and can you do math. New York is number one. Two reasons.

Assets 144
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Transcript: Albert Wenger

The Big Picture

WENGER: No, we’ve definitely always been disciplined on valuation, and we’ve let a number of things go. We went from having religions where, you know, everything was a spirit, a tree, a rock, everything had a spirit, and then we went from that to theistic religions where there was some different number of gods.

Valuation 299
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Transcript: Mike Green, Simplify Asset Management

The Big Picture

00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. We forget that there weren’t personal computers on everybody’s desk back then. That’s the opportunity set.

Assets 167