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Seattle Redux: Misunderstanding Seasonal Adjustments

The Big Picture

Barry has written extensively about denominator blindness, i.e. throwing out a number without any context whatsoever. Well, the number is actually very close to the latter (1.470 million): So, 10k on 1.470 million is less than 1 percent — 0.68% to be exact. certain that the Journal got the number from BLS. But whatever.

Food 336
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At the Money: Is War Good for Markets?

The Big Picture

Full transcript below. ~~~ Previously : Hirsch’s WTF Forecast: Dow 38,820 (September 28, 2010) Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It (April 12, 2011) ~~~ Jeffrey Hirsch is editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac & Almanac Investor Newsletter. For both following both wars. Following both wars.

Marketing 317
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National Association of Realtors Is Imploding

The Big Picture

By my crude estimates, a substantial number of U.S. March 14th, 2010) Brilliant Amazon Reviews: David Lereah’s RE Books (April 26, 2011) The post National Association of Realtors Is Imploding appeared first on The Big Picture. Lousy behavior tends to expand when an organization perceives itself as irreplaceable.

Numbers 298
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I Ran The Numbers And They Work!

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

The 2010's was a rough decade for managed futures in nominal terms. I had enough previous experience with managed futures to understand the concept would work. Part of how they positioned the concept before the fund launched was a chart similar to this one. The S&P 500 was up 244% and managed futures went nowhere.

Numbers 96
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Fannie "Real Estate Owned" inventory Decreased in Q1 2024

Calculated Risk

Fannie Mae reported the number of REOs decreased to 7,791 at the end of Q1 2024, down 5% from 8,403 at the end of the previous quarter, and down 9% year-over-year from Q1 2023. For Fannie, this is down 95% from the 166,787 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010. Here is some information on single-family Real Estate Owned (REOs).

Numbers 132
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U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2022

Calculated Risk

The table below shows the top 10 cohorts by size for 2010, 2022 (released recently), and the most recent Census Bureau projections for 2030. And below is a table showing the ten most common ages in 2010, 2021, and 2030 (projections are from the Census Bureau, 2017 ). Note the younger baby boom generation dominated in 2010.

Economy 145
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Fannie "Real Estate Owned" inventory Decreased 10% in Q2 2024

Calculated Risk

Fannie Mae reported the number of REOs decreased to 7,179 at the end of Q2 2024, down 10% from 7,971 at the end of the previous quarter, and down 17% year-over-year from Q2 2023. For Fannie, this is down 96% from the 166,787 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010. Here is some information on single-family Real Estate Owned (REOs).

Numbers 123