Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

If we're thinking about risk planning for the next ten years, I might wonder about a lost decade for US equities like we had from 2000-2010 and whether that might mean foreign equities rotate back into favor like they were back in 2000-2010. It's good to start thinking about these things ahead of time.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 3, 2024

The 2010's was a rough decade for managed futures in nominal terms. Someone retiring on Dec 31, 2021 being all in on traditional 60/40 had a real problem from an adverse sequence of returns. Someone retiring on Dec 31, 2021 with one of the managed futures-heavy portfolios had no such problem.

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Numbers Portfolio Management Retirement 96

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 23, 2023

A couple of interesting retirement-related reads that I want to try to weave together. First was a very long read titled The End of Retirement written by Cathrin Bradbury. Bradbury is a retired journalist in Canada. If you read the whole thing, you might pick up some different attitudes, culturally, toward retirement and aging.

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Retirement Portfolio Taxes Management 75

WiserAdvisor

FEBRUARY 29, 2024

Navigating the complex world of personal finance, especially with retirement looming on the horizon, can be daunting. Working with a financial advisor can significantly enhance your chances of retiring with more wealth. Hiring the best financial advisors for retirement can lead to better savings and investment outcomes.

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Financial Advisor Retirement Asset Allocation Risk Tolerance 45

Ballast Advisors

NOVEMBER 20, 2023

As we bid adieu to this year, it’s a golden opportunity for savvy investors and retirement planners to give their strategies a once-over, particularly when it comes to Roth IRA conversions. Since 2010, everyone, regardless of income, can join in. Reach out to us today, and let’s make your retirement planning shine.

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Planning Financial Planner Taxes Retirement Planning 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 21, 2024

It has been challenging as we've talked about in other posts recently but I believe the 2010's were even worse. Check out the following. To my knowledge, RYMFX was the first managed futures mutual fund and it had the space to itself for several years after in launched in 2007.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 11, 2024

If you've done research on managed futures then you've probably read what a rough decade the 2010's were for the strategy. Maybe it's as simple as equities went up a lot but either way from 2010 through 2019, RYMFX negatively compounded at 2.07% and AQMIX compounded annually at a positive 77 basis points.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 2, 2024

The firm has been running the Alpha Simplex Managed Futures Strategy Fund (ASFYX) since 2010. The paper seems to support the very new Alpha Simplex Managed Futures ETF (ASMF) which started trading in mid-May.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MAY 4, 2024

For a few years in the 2010's, I had a side gig working for ETF provider AdvisorShares. One of my regular tasks was a quick, monthly call with each fund manager reviewing what happened and maybe getting some sort of forward look from them.

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Portfolio Management Taxes Assets 89

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 22, 2024

The current funk is nowhere near as long as the languishment of the 2010's though. Looking at the history of a backtest is different than enduring a dry spell. Managed futures is a phenomenal diversifier but has been in a funk for awhile. Where we allocated 10% to second responders, only one of the models has all 10% in managed futures.

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Getting Your Financial Ducks In A Row

OCTOBER 10, 2022

A Private Letter Ruling (PLR) from 2010 presents an interesting outcome from an indirect rollover – a rollover that was not done in a trustee-to-trustee transfer. Photo credit: jb.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 5, 2024

We've gone over the extent to which the 2010's were by and large terrible for managed futures. So maybe the 2010's were a coincidence. Managed futures did have a couple of fine years in the 2010's in the context of being a diversifier which is how we view the strategy here. Could such a terrible run repeat?

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 10, 2022

I am absolutely a believer in the strategy even though it generally did poorly for most of the 2010's. We've written a lot about managed futures during this bear market as well as during the financial crisis. It worked during that stretch though for maintaining its negative to low correlation to equities as equities rocketed higher.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 24, 2023

The catalyst for this post was a Tweet from Adam Butler who talked about a backdrop in the 2010's the promoted speculation and what he called Minskyian Moral Hazard (a nod to Hyman Minsky). Of course, there's an argument that index funds aren't really passive because of how the indexes are constructed.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 22, 2024

The space languished for most of the 2010's. I write all the time about managed futures as a diversifier and being able to live with the reality that managed futures will probably struggle when stocks are going up. This year is kind of an anomaly so far. Stocks are up and so are a lot of the managed futures funds.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 26, 2024

The group struggled for many years in the 2010's and we saw a nasty whipsaw a year ago. T-bills instead would be less volatile with a lower yield. Managed futures can be a very challenging hold as we've talked about countless times.

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Portfolio Management Banking Financial Planning 93

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 29, 2024

This is probably attributable to trend having some weak years in the 2010's. I find this to be interesting but anyone needing normal stock market growth in order for their retirement plan to work, probably isn't going to get it from any of these portfolios. Both 2 and 3 were up in 2022 while the RPAR replication was down 11%.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 7, 2023

Read the article but substitute ETF anytime it uses the word alternatives or any synonyms because this article read like one of the countless late to the part articles about ETFs from 2007 to maybe 2010.

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Trade Brains

FEBRUARY 14, 2023

Yeah, that lot that talks about terms like compounding, risk profile, returns, retirement planning, budgeting, Investing, and whatnot! He is associated with ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited since June 2010. of Stocks Held 68 This is a retirement solution-oriented mutual fund scheme from HDFC Mutual Fund.

Healthcare 59

Healthcare Retirement Investments Investing 59

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 16, 2023

I've been part of the planning committee for this drill since 2010, maybe 2009 and a participant since 2003. For a volunteer department like ours, there will be some years where the drill is our only live fire hours so it is very important.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 23, 2022

It was titled Should Investors Try To Hedge Tail Risk which I wrote in 2010. In doing some research for another post, I found an old blog I wrote ages ago that touches on the same area. It makes for interesting reading because how many fewer ways there were to protect against extreme market events back then.

Portfolio 71

Portfolio Assets Management Retail 71

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 27, 2024

Managed futures has generally struggled lately just kind of grinding around which as I said almost all the way through the 2010's is what you might expect a strategy that is usually negatively correlated to equities to do. It's not that capital efficiency can't work but somehow, anytime I look, these particular funds are underwhelming.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 10, 2024

I've referred to the 2010's as a dark winter for managed futures. That seems like a reasonable outcome, you don't want you diversifier to be your best performer. It's a little different now that the cash held to collateralize the futures contracts is now earning 5%. It was a long slow event that weighed on returns.

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Sara Grillo

AUGUST 14, 2023

Helping parents send their kids to college, care for an aging parent and retire with financial independence are literally what gets him up every day. He has presented papers at conferences on topics such as investment fraud, risk management, and retirement planning. 2010, August 1). Lee holds a Ph.D. Lee holds a Ph.D.

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Financial Advisor Fiduciary Duty Insurance Financial Advice 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 3, 2025

I said the same thing in various places I-don't-know-how-many-times during the 2010's. We have two years in a row now where equities were up a lot and managed futures languished which is exactly what should be expected. The more time goes on, the worse the 20%-to-managed-futures calls look.

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Management Portfolio Investing Investments 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 14, 2024

I've been part of the planning group for this event since 2010. I've talked about this before that the inter-agency cooperation in the Prescott area was very unique but I believe other areas are now doing similar things.

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Engineering Communication Planning Management 52

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 6, 2022

It has to be such a different set, the retirement planning is different, the safety net is different. And also, I think there are a few dynamics, specifically in Spain, where people are really concerned about the sustainability of the traditional pension plans. RITHOLTZ: So you move here from Spain. It’s really a blast.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 19, 2023

Yahoo Finance had kind of a long read recapping an update from Morningstar about safe retirement withdrawal rates. I would much rather withdraw 10% or more per year from my retirement accounts and do it without taking any principal. When I retired in 2010, I had about $360K in a deferred IRA and $60K in a Roth IRA.

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Retirement Accounting Math Healthcare 75

Good Financial Cents

DECEMBER 28, 2022

Opening a Roth IRA can be a smart move if you want to invest for retirement and save money on taxes later in life. When you’re ready to take distributions from your Roth IRA in retirement (or after age 59 ½), you won’t pay income taxes on your distributions, either. Retirement Account Conversions Allowed.

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Distribution Taxes Retirement Accounting 105

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 30, 2023

From 1990 to 2010, the divorce rate for people over 50 doubled. And facing retirement as a single person instead of as part of a couple carries financial risks too, requiring careful consideration of health care decisions and living arrangements. Another area to be thoughtful about is how retirement assets get divided.

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Retirement Planning Financial Advisor Retirement Assets 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 16, 2024

I gave that up in something like 2010. The front of the curve is ok and of course there are segments of the equity market that take interest rate risk but that kind of volatility from equities is fine, I don't want it from income sectors. We've written countless posts on this for many years. Isolating the risk was easy.

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Taxes Marketing Marketing Investing 93

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 10, 2023

Then you have to go back to year end June 2010 to find another year that VBAIX outperformed. Looking at a few other years, the year ending June 2021 Yale up 40% versus 20% for VBAIX. Year ending June 30, 2020 had Yale up 6.8% with VBAIX up 5%. In 2019 VBAIX outperformed by 221 basis points.

Portfolio 98

Portfolio Assets Management Marketing 98

Nationwide Financial

MAY 19, 2023

Implementing a succession plan can help families beat the odds and ensure a successful transition of the business to future generations. For business owners whose retirement may be 10 or even 15 or more years away, it’s easy to find reasons to put off succession planning.

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Planning Clients Insurance Retirement 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 22, 2023

I bought it for clients in 2010 or 2011 and still hold it, so maybe. ARBFX 3.7% JRS 3.9% (short position) MERFX 3.7% TBT 24.7% (thought of as a short/hedge position) TDF 3.1% VXX 7.4% (thought of as a short/hedge position) VXZ 7.5% (thought of as a short/hedge position) XLE 3.9% There's a lot there, really lot.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 7, 2025

But as I've been saying (occasionally) since maybe 2010, managed futures tend to have a negative correlation to equities. We've looked at the struggles of managed futures since then, many times. Yes, it has been a challenging hold since the 2022 glory.

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The Irrelevant Investor

AUGUST 9, 2018

The median retirement account balance of people ages 56 to 61 is just $25,000. People aren't saving enough in their defined contribution plans (401(K), IRA), and defined benefit plans (pensions) are in serious danger. Whatever else happened, retired policemen and firefighters and teachers would be paid.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 24, 2024

That is refutable though because interest rates went down steadily for many years in the 2010's but the strategy did poorly. I think it's much simpler to think of managed futures as a "second responder" to a crisis or deep decline. The line between diversifier and core holding is probably debatable.

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Engineering Management Insurance Taxes 40