Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year ICE Mortgage Monitor: Lowest (..)

Marketing 147

Marketing Marketing 147

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 8, 2023

June 3rd, 2011) THE MOST IMPORTANT EVER NFP blah blah blah (June 7th, 2013) “What’s Your NFP Number?” workers in the economy that excludes proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, farm employees, and the unincorporated self-employed.

Numbers 264

Numbers Retirement Accounting Economy 264

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

See also : Nothing is More Bullish than All-Time Highs (Michael Batnick, February 3, 2024) All-Time Highs in the Stock Market are Usually Followed by More All-Time Highs (Ben Carlson, February 8, 2024) Previously : How Bullish Were You in 2011?

Economics 349

Economics Marketing Marketing Investing 349

A Wealth of Common Sense

MARCH 16, 2025

Coming into 2025 the S&P 500 had just two down years out of the past 15: 2010 +14.8% 2024 +24.9% We were all probably a little spoiled. Regardless of the reason for the recent swoon, we were due.

115

115

Calculated Risk

JULY 26, 2022

The all-time high for June was 115 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for June was 28 thousand in 2010 and in 2011. In June 2022 (red column), 49 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 61 thousand homes were sold in June. This was well below expectations, and sales in the three previous months were revised down significantly.

Sales 344

Sales 344

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

May 26, 2022) NFP Day: The Most Over-Analyzed, Over-Emphasized, Least-Understood Data Point (February 4th, 2011) The post Unemployment Up 0.3% = Fed on Hold appeared first on The Big Picture. (October 7, 2022) Revisiting Peak Inflation (June 29, 2022) Has Inflation Peaked? (May

Economy 317

Economy 317

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2023

Several years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, the plunge in inventory in 2011 (blue arrow on graph below) helped me call the bottom for house prices in early 2012 (see The Housing Bottom is Here ).

Marketing 291

Marketing Marketing 291

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

The second table shows the change in construction and manufacturing payrolls starting in 2006.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Several years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, the plunge in inventory in 2011 (blue arrow on graph below) helped me call the bottom for house prices in early 2012 (see The Housing Bottom is Here ). Somewhat lower mortgage rates - and time - will likely lead to more new listings in 2024.

Economics 290

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 290

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2022

This will be the first year since 2011 to see a decline for single-family starts,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. This situation is unhealthy and unsustainable. Policymakers must address this worsening housing affordability crisis.”

Sales 352

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 352

The Big Picture

AUGUST 21, 2023

We were reminded of this by Joe Keohane, writing at the Boston Globe in 2011: “How can someone with the insight to be so right about a major event be so wrong about so many other ones? Joe Keohane Boston Globe, January 9, 2011 ( Mirror ) How to Get Rich and Famous From a Stock Market Crash By Spencer Jakab WSJ, Aug.

Marketing 246

Marketing Marketing Sales Management 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 26, 2022

The median home price fell by 0.77% in July, the largest single-month drop since January 2011. Month-over-month data gives us a much clearer picture of just how much – and how quickly – the housing market has shifted. There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at [link]

Sales 263

Sales Marketing Marketing 263

The Big Picture

MARCH 18, 2024

It isn’t just Time magazine, but any non-business publication — consider the New York Times magazine cover on gold3 in 2011 as yet another example. Gold was more $1,500 an ounce during the week of the cover story in May 2011; during August and September of that year, gold almost hit $1,900; by December, it was back down to $1,500.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Media Investing 336

NAIFA Advisor Today

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

Previously, he served terms on the FSP National Board of Directors from 2011 through 2016. McGlothlin served on the Society of FSP National Executive Committee from 2018 to 2021 and was National President in 2020-2021. He was President and Director of the Society of FSP Central Indiana Chapter from 2002 through 2005.

Ethics 138

Ethics Retirement Planning Education CFP 138

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2023

They also wrote the 2011 bestseller “ Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon ,” about the mortgage crisis. A former stockbroker and alumna of the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, she won the Pulitzer Prize in 2002 for her “trenchant and incisive” reporting on finance.

Taxes 327

Taxes Retail Economy Economics 327

Calculated Risk

JULY 12, 2023

percent, a record high for the jumbo series, which dates back to 2011.” All mortgage rates in our survey followed suit, with the 30-year fixed rate increasing to 7.07 percent, the highest level since November 2022,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. The jumbo rate also increased to 7.04

Economy 339

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 339

Calculated Risk

JUNE 8, 2023

The second graph is from a 2011 CoreLogic report and shows a large number of homeowners with negative equity - even as house prices were nearing a bottom! But most homeowners have a significant amount of equity. This is a very different picture than at the start of the housing bust when many homeowners had little equity. million to 1.2

Numbers 363

Numbers Distribution Accounting 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Several years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, the plunge in inventory in 2011 (blue arrow on graph below) helped me call the bottom for house prices in early 2012 (see The Housing Bottom is Here ).

Economics 264

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 264

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 27, 2023

percent, the highest rate in the history of the jumbo rate series dating back to 2011,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 7.41 percent, the highest rate since December 2000, and the 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage rate increased to 7.34

Accounting 307

Accounting Sales Marketing Marketing 307

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 18, 2022

Black and light Purple are the maximum sales per month during the bubble (2005) and the minimum sales during the bust (2008 - 2011). The third graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), for a few selected periods. The most recent four years are shown (2019 through 2022). Sales NSA in July (453,000) were 22.4%

Sales 249

Sales Marketing Marketing 249

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 8, 2023

The second graph is from a 2011 CoreLogic report and shows a large number of homeowners with negative equity - even as house prices were nearing a bottom! But most homeowners have a significant amount of equity. This is a very different picture than at the start of the housing bust when many homeowners had little equity. million to 1.11

Numbers 320

Numbers Distribution Accounting Marketing 320

Calculated Risk

JULY 17, 2023

Some potential sellers quickly listed their homes, probably remembering what happened with house prices in the 2006 to 2011 period, but that surge ended pretty quickly. However, the inventory surge in 2022 was somewhat of a head fake! There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at [link]

Sales 236

Sales Marketing Marketing 236

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2024

This is the highest vacancy rate since 2011. Supply side pressure was the main driver for the creep-up of vacancy since late 2022. Moody’s Analytics (Reis) reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 5.8% in Q3 2024, unchanged from an upwardly revised 5.8% in Q2, and up from the pandemic peak of 5.6% in Q1 2021.

Retail 147

Retail 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 19, 2023

As Senator Mitch McConnell noted in 2011, if the debt ceiling isn't raised the "Republican brand" would become toxic and synonymous with fiscal irresponsibility. Thus, 35 percent of government cash outlays would need to be cut if a debt limit accord was not reached until the middle of November. It is up to Congress.

Government 353

Government Assets Economy Financial Market 353

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 26, 2022

The all-time high for September was 99 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for September was 24 thousand in 2011. In September 2022 (red column), 49 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 58 thousand homes were sold in September. I'll have more later today.

Sales 245

Sales 245

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

Auto loan balances increased by $22 billion in the third quarter, consistent with the upward trajectory seen since 2011. The 15% year-over-year increase in credit card balances represents the largest in more than 20 years. Student loan balances slightly declined and now stand at $1.57 In total, non-housing balances grew by $66 billion.

Banking 324

Banking Accounting Economics 324

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 13, 2023

March 14th, 2010) Brilliant Amazon Reviews: David Lereah’s RE Books (April 26, 2011) The post National Association of Realtors Is Imploding appeared first on The Big Picture.

Numbers 298

Numbers Sales Management Marketing 298

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2023

Auto loan balances rose by $13 billion, consistent with the upward trajectory seen since 2011, and now stand at $1.6 Credit card balances increased by $48 billion to $1.08 trillion in Q3 2023, representing a 4.7% quarterly increase. Student loan balances increased by $30 billion and now stand at $1.6

Retail 314

Retail Banking Accounting Economics 314

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 4, 2022

Officials looking to issue debt to rebuild and also bolster infrastructure against the risk of increasingly severe weather will be doing so during a brutal juncture for the bond market: ten-year benchmark municipal yields are near the highest since 2011.

Marketing 147

Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

JULY 9, 2024

To better understand Bill McBride's perspective on the current housing and economic cycle, ResiClub reached out and conducted a Q&A with him.

Marketing 173

Marketing Marketing Economics Sales 173

A Wealth of Common Sense

SEPTEMBER 8, 2024

Each year since 2011, Gallup has asked people what they think is the best long-term investment: After a brief love affair with gold, real estate has been in the top spot every year since 2013. Stocks are a distant second. So why do we Americans love the housing market so much from an investment perspective?

Investing 141

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 141

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 12, 2024

The second graph is from a 2011 CoreLogic report and shows a large number of homeowners with negative equity - even as house prices were nearing a bottom! But most homeowners have a significant amount of equity. This is a very different picture than at the start of the housing bust when many homeowners had little equity. million.

Numbers 234

Numbers Distribution Insurance Accounting 234

The Big Picture

APRIL 26, 2023

(December 16, 2021) How to Mislead with Data, Large Company Edition (November 12, 2021) See also : This awfully fragile narrow no-good rally (FT, April 25, 2023) MiB: Paul Desmond of Lowry’s Research (October 24, 2015) Q&A: Paul Desmond of Lowry’s Reports & Part II (February 18-19, 2011) __ 1.

Portfolio Management 288

Portfolio Management Marketing Marketing Portfolio 288

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

2011 64.0% -0.3 Unemployment and Participation Rate for December each Year December of Participation Rate Change in Participation Rate (percentage points) Unemployment Rate 2008 65.8% 2009 64.6% -1.2 2010 64.3% -0.3 2012 63.7% -0.3 2013 62.9% -0.8 2014 62.8% -0.1 2015 62.7% -0.1 2016 62.7% 2017 62.7% 2018 63.0% 2019 63.3% 2020 61.5% -1.8

Economics 242

Economics Sales Investing Investments 242

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

The total volume of single-family starts will post a decline in 2022, the first such decrease since 2011. “Tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and persistently elevated construction costs have brought on a housing recession,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

Sales 235

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 235

Investment Writing

OCTOBER 15, 2024

I couldn’t get the phrase “the pebble in the shoe” out of my mind after an advisor mentioned it to me at an annual conference of the Financial Planning Association of Massachusetts back in 2011. Note: This post was updated on October 15, 2024, following its original publication in 2011.

Communication 102

Communication Financial Planning Clients Planning 102

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

Auto loan balances increased by $28 billion in the fourth quarter, consistent with the upward trajectory seen since 2011. Credit card balances increased $61 billion in the fourth quarter to $986 billion, surpassing the pre-pandemic high of $927 billion. Student loan balances now stand at $1.60

Banking 246

Banking Accounting Economics 246