A Wealth of Common Sense

SEPTEMBER 8, 2024

Each year since 2011, Gallup has asked people what they think is the best long-term investment: After a brief love affair with gold, real estate has been in the top spot every year since 2013. Stocks are a distant second. So why do we Americans love the housing market so much from an investment perspective?

Investing 145

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 145

The Big Picture

APRIL 26, 2023

(December 16, 2021) How to Mislead with Data, Large Company Edition (November 12, 2021) See also : This awfully fragile narrow no-good rally (FT, April 25, 2023) MiB: Paul Desmond of Lowry’s Research (October 24, 2015) Q&A: Paul Desmond of Lowry’s Reports & Part II (February 18-19, 2011) __ 1.

Portfolio Management 288

Portfolio Management Marketing Marketing Portfolio 288

The Big Picture

MAY 21, 2023

New York Times ) • Justice Thomas Ethics Review Questioned by US Court Leader in 2012 : Thomas faced complaints in 2011 over reporting wife’s income Judiciary leadership member objected to lack of information.

Insurance 299

Insurance Healthcare Nonprofit Ethics 299

The Big Picture

JUNE 2, 2023

. ~~~ Those are some of my favorite perspective shifters, I hope you find them to be a useful way to reset your own perspectives.

Numbers 312

Numbers Valuation Retirement Economics 312

Investment Writing

OCTOBER 15, 2024

I couldn’t get the phrase “the pebble in the shoe” out of my mind after an advisor mentioned it to me at an annual conference of the Financial Planning Association of Massachusetts back in 2011. Note: This post was updated on October 15, 2024, following its original publication in 2011.

Communication 102

Communication Financial Planning Clients Planning 102

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2023

For most of Human history, when a technologically advanced civilization encounters a vastly technologically society, it usually means extinction for those with inferior tools and weapons.

Investing 299

Investing Investments Management Insurance 299

Good Financial Cents

AUGUST 14, 2023

In June 2011, Bitcoin saw its first significant price spike, climbing to a value of $29.60 (up from just $0.30 Here’s a look at Bitcoin’s annual returns from 2010 to 2022: Bitcoin 10-Year Return Chart Year Return (%) 2011 1,473 2012 186 2013 5,507 2014 -58 2015 35 2016 125 2017 1,331 2018 -73 2019 95 2020 301 2021 90 2022 -81.02

Assets 119

Assets Investing Investments Numbers 119

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

September 29, 2023) Round Trip: Lessons From the 2022 Bear Market (August 1, 2023) How Bullish Were You in 2011? Previously : Forecasting & Prediction Discussions Can Economists Predict Recessions? November 29, 2023) _ 1. It’s not that your forecast was wrong, it’s that you are forecasting in the first place.

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

The Big Picture

APRIL 1, 2023

He launched the Churchill Financial Group in 2006, which was purchased by PE giant The Carlyle Group in 2011. The firm gets spun out in 2015, partnering with Nuveen, part of the trillion-dollar asset manager TIAA.

Assets 173

Assets Management Valuation Investing 173

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

Full transcript below. ~~~ Previously : Hirsch’s WTF Forecast: Dow 38,820 (September 28, 2010) Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It (April 12, 2011) ~~~ Jeffrey Hirsch is editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac & Almanac Investor Newsletter.

Marketing 317

Marketing Marketing Government Numbers 317

The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2023

Here are a few Uncertainty Index charts showing 5 years around some big moves — the dotcom implosion, GFC, and Covid-19 — where prescience would have been helpful: 1997-2002 Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index 2006-2011 Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index 2017-2022 Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index It is a heavy lift to generate something that would (..)

Distribution 246

Distribution Economics Communication Media 246

Calculated Risk

JULY 26, 2022

The all-time high for June was 115 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for June was 28 thousand in 2010 and in 2011. In June 2022 (red column), 49 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 61 thousand homes were sold in June. This was well below expectations, and sales in the three previous months were revised down significantly.

Sales 137

Sales 137

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

The second table shows the change in construction and manufacturing payrolls starting in 2006.

Economy 119

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 119

NAIFA Advisor Today

JUNE 19, 2023

After several years in sales and marketing positions, he found the right opportunity with Guardian in 2011 and started his financial services career. He had the right skill set—it was just a matter of finding the right place. Since then, he has worked with and learned from many of the top professionals in the industry.

Financial Services 98

Financial Services Insurance Sales Marketing 98

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2023

Several years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, the plunge in inventory in 2011 (blue arrow on graph below) helped me call the bottom for house prices in early 2012 (see The Housing Bottom is Here ).

Marketing 116

Marketing Marketing 116

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Several years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, the plunge in inventory in 2011 (blue arrow on graph below) helped me call the bottom for house prices in early 2012 (see The Housing Bottom is Here ). Somewhat lower mortgage rates - and time - will likely lead to more new listings in 2024.

Economics 116

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 116

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2022

This will be the first year since 2011 to see a decline for single-family starts,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. This situation is unhealthy and unsustainable. Policymakers must address this worsening housing affordability crisis.”

Sales 140

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 140

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 26, 2022

The median home price fell by 0.77% in July, the largest single-month drop since January 2011. Month-over-month data gives us a much clearer picture of just how much – and how quickly – the housing market has shifted. There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at [link]

Sales 105

Sales Marketing Marketing 105

Calculated Risk

JULY 12, 2023

percent, a record high for the jumbo series, which dates back to 2011.” All mortgage rates in our survey followed suit, with the 30-year fixed rate increasing to 7.07 percent, the highest level since November 2022,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. The jumbo rate also increased to 7.04

Economy 135

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 135

Calculated Risk

JUNE 8, 2023

The second graph is from a 2011 CoreLogic report and shows a large number of homeowners with negative equity - even as house prices were nearing a bottom! But most homeowners have a significant amount of equity. This is a very different picture than at the start of the housing bust when many homeowners had little equity. million to 1.2

Numbers 145

Numbers Distribution Accounting 145

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Several years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, the plunge in inventory in 2011 (blue arrow on graph below) helped me call the bottom for house prices in early 2012 (see The Housing Bottom is Here ).

Economics 105

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 105

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 27, 2023

percent, the highest rate in the history of the jumbo rate series dating back to 2011,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 7.41 percent, the highest rate since December 2000, and the 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage rate increased to 7.34

Accounting 123

Accounting Sales Marketing Marketing 123

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 18, 2022

Black and light Purple are the maximum sales per month during the bubble (2005) and the minimum sales during the bust (2008 - 2011). The third graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), for a few selected periods. The most recent four years are shown (2019 through 2022). Sales NSA in July (453,000) were 22.4%

Sales 99

Sales Marketing Marketing 99

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 8, 2023

The second graph is from a 2011 CoreLogic report and shows a large number of homeowners with negative equity - even as house prices were nearing a bottom! But most homeowners have a significant amount of equity. This is a very different picture than at the start of the housing bust when many homeowners had little equity. million to 1.11

Numbers 128

Numbers Distribution Accounting Marketing 128

Calculated Risk

JULY 17, 2023

Some potential sellers quickly listed their homes, probably remembering what happened with house prices in the 2006 to 2011 period, but that surge ended pretty quickly. However, the inventory surge in 2022 was somewhat of a head fake! There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at [link]

Sales 94

Sales Marketing Marketing 94

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2024

This is the highest vacancy rate since 2011. Supply side pressure was the main driver for the creep-up of vacancy since late 2022. Moody’s Analytics (Reis) reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 5.8% in Q3 2024, unchanged from an upwardly revised 5.8% in Q2, and up from the pandemic peak of 5.6% in Q1 2021.

Retail 59

Retail 59

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 11, 2024

The managed futures blends' worst years in this study were 2011 when they were down slightly versus up 4.31% for VBAIX and 2018 when they were down 5.5%-6% I don't discount having been lucky to have found RYMFX pretty much right after it started trading and for selling it some time in 2011. 6% while VBAIX was down 2.84%.

Management 93

Management Taxes Accounting Portfolio 93

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 26, 2022

The all-time high for September was 99 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for September was 24 thousand in 2011. In September 2022 (red column), 49 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 58 thousand homes were sold in September. I'll have more later today.

Sales 98

Sales 98

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

Auto loan balances increased by $22 billion in the third quarter, consistent with the upward trajectory seen since 2011. The 15% year-over-year increase in credit card balances represents the largest in more than 20 years. Student loan balances slightly declined and now stand at $1.57 In total, non-housing balances grew by $66 billion.

Banking 129

Banking Accounting Economics 129

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2023

Auto loan balances rose by $13 billion, consistent with the upward trajectory seen since 2011, and now stand at $1.6 Credit card balances increased by $48 billion to $1.08 trillion in Q3 2023, representing a 4.7% quarterly increase. Student loan balances increased by $30 billion and now stand at $1.6

Retail 125

Retail Banking Accounting Economics 125

MarketWatch

MAY 17, 2023

Separately, Blue Bird Phil Horlock will again become CEO of the company after serving in the role from 2011 to 2021. Holley stock is up 41% in 2023, compared to a 17.9% increase by the Nasdaq. Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news.

Marketing 75

Marketing Marketing 75

NAIFA Advisor Today

MARCH 1, 2024

He runs a multi-line insurance business that has been a NAIFA member since 2011. Demetrius Bryant is an insurance agent helping individuals safeguard their income against unforeseen expenses. Through his company, Demetrius offers comprehensive insurance services, including automobile, home, life, and business policies.

Insurance 59

Insurance 59

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 27, 2024

Multi-Family Delinquencies Increased, Fannie Rate Matches Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic). Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in October was 0.55%, up from 0.54% September. Freddie's rate is up slightly year-over-year from 0.54% in October 2023.

59

59

Calculated Risk

JULY 9, 2024

To better understand Bill McBride's perspective on the current housing and economic cycle, ResiClub reached out and conducted a Q&A with him.

Marketing 69

Marketing Marketing Economics Sales 69

MarketWatch

MARCH 8, 2023

The government agency said that would be the largest harvest since the 2011/2012 marketing year. The USDA raised its 2022/2023 wheat production estimates for Kazakhstan, Australia, and India, with production in Kazakhstan forecast at 16.4 million metric tons. At some point, “the world could come knocking on the U.S.

Government 75

Government Marketing Marketing 75

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 4, 2022

Officials looking to issue debt to rebuild and also bolster infrastructure against the risk of increasingly severe weather will be doing so during a brutal juncture for the bond market: ten-year benchmark municipal yields are near the highest since 2011.

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing 59

MarketWatch

MARCH 20, 2023

3, 2011 record low close of $22.48. A “B” rating at S&P means the entity is “more vulnerable to adverse business, financial and economic conditions but currently has the capacity to meet financial commitments.” The stock was on track to open below the $20 level, below the Oct. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news.

Banking 75

Banking Economics Marketing Marketing 75