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All-Time Highs Are Historically Bullish

The Big Picture

Peter Mallouk points out that investments made on days of all-time highs outperform investments made on all other days, Technicians will tell you All-Time Highs are bullish, because there is no selling resistance; behavioral economics suggests it’s bullish due to FOMO and plain old greed.

Economics 349
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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

Economy 298
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Question #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024?

Calculated Risk

Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Several years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, the plunge in inventory in 2011 (blue arrow on graph below) helped me call the bottom for house prices in early 2012 (see The Housing Bottom is Here ).

Economics 290
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MiB: Gretchen Morgenson on Private Equity

The Big Picture

They also wrote the 2011 bestseller “ Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon ,” about the mortgage crisis. She (and coauthor Joshua Rosner) recently published “ These Are the Plunderers: How Private Equity Runs―and Wrecks―America.”

Taxes 327
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

Incoming economic data continue to send mixed signals about the economy, with the overall impact leaving Treasury yields higher last week as markets expect that the Federal Reserve will need to hold rates higher for longer to slow inflation. percent, a record high for the jumbo series, which dates back to 2011.”

Economy 339
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Question #10 for 2023: Will inventory increase further in 2023?

Calculated Risk

Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Several years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, the plunge in inventory in 2011 (blue arrow on graph below) helped me call the bottom for house prices in early 2012 (see The Housing Bottom is Here ).

Economics 264
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NY Fed Q3 Report: Household Debt Increases, Delinquencies "very low"

Calculated Risk

Auto loan balances increased by $22 billion in the third quarter, consistent with the upward trajectory seen since 2011. The 15% year-over-year increase in credit card balances represents the largest in more than 20 years. Student loan balances slightly declined and now stand at $1.57 In total, non-housing balances grew by $66 billion.

Banking 324