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All-Time Highs Are Historically Bullish

The Big Picture

Peter Mallouk points out that investments made on days of all-time highs outperform investments made on all other days, Technicians will tell you All-Time Highs are bullish, because there is no selling resistance; behavioral economics suggests it’s bullish due to FOMO and plain old greed.

Economics 349
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MiB: Gretchen Morgenson on Private Equity

The Big Picture

They also wrote the 2011 bestseller “ Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon ,” about the mortgage crisis. She (and coauthor Joshua Rosner) recently published “ These Are the Plunderers: How Private Equity Runs―and Wrecks―America.”

Taxes 327
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10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture

ProPublica ) • 1 in 5 Young Chinese Is Jobless, and Millions More Are About to Graduate : The youth unemployment rate, which spiked during the pandemic, reached a record high this week, showing the perils of China’s uneven economic recovery. ( She routinely mistook her adult son for his uncle. Censoring for Strongmen Is Now a Pattern.

Insurance 299
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Change Your Perspective

The Big Picture

Monthly NFP is likely the single most overrated economic data point in the US, while the intermediate term employment trend is the most underrated. What really matters is the series trend: Are we consistently creating jobs over time? Is that multi-month trend rising or falling?

Numbers 312
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What’s Wrong With Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indexes

The Big Picture

It is a “monthly measure of how unpredictable overall economic conditions are 1 month, 3 months, and 1 year ahead.” But “uncertainty” as that word is commonly used on Wall Street 1 seems to be correlated with concerns about faltering economic conditions and/or rising market volatility. And I am okay with that.

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Are You Bullish or Bearish in 2024?

The Big Picture

550bps increases in the Federal Funds rate from March 2022 through July 2023 – and its long and variable lags – continues to exert a drag on the economy, which could lead to further economic contraction. September 29, 2023) Round Trip: Lessons From the 2022 Bear Market (August 1, 2023) How Bullish Were You in 2011?

Economy 331
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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

Economy 119