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Unemployment Up 0.3% = Fed on Hold

The Big Picture

If you were watching the video instead of the still pic , it was apparent that the biggest risk to the economy then was less rising prices than a tardy FOMC over-tightening. I have been saying since June 2022 that inflation had peaked; the data has been leaning that way since May 2022.

Economy 317
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Monthly NFPs Are Rounding Errors

The Big Picture

June 3rd, 2011) THE MOST IMPORTANT EVER NFP blah blah blah (June 7th, 2013) “What’s Your NFP Number?” workers in the economy that excludes proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, farm employees, and the unincorporated self-employed.

Numbers 264
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MiB: Gretchen Morgenson on Private Equity

The Big Picture

They also wrote the 2011 bestseller “ Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon ,” about the mortgage crisis. economy, but American society as a whole. She (and coauthor Joshua Rosner) recently published “ These Are the Plunderers: How Private Equity Runs―and Wrecks―America.”

Taxes 327
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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 119
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Are You Bullish or Bearish in 2024?

The Big Picture

Federal Reserve : While a recession is possible in 2024, it mostly depends upon how long the FOMC keeps rates tighter (higher) than is appropriate for the economy. September 29, 2023) Round Trip: Lessons From the 2022 Bear Market (August 1, 2023) How Bullish Were You in 2011? (Data via Yardeni Research ). November 29, 2023) _ 1.

Economy 331
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Question #1 for 2023: How much will the economy grow in 2023? Will there be a recession in 2023?

Calculated Risk

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. Or will the economy lose jobs? 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 111
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At the Money: Is War Good for Markets?

The Big Picture

Full transcript below. ~~~ Previously : Hirsch’s WTF Forecast: Dow 38,820 (September 28, 2010) Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It (April 12, 2011) ~~~ Jeffrey Hirsch is editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac & Almanac Investor Newsletter. It’s government spending period.

Marketing 317