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The Fed on "Possible Macroeconomic Effects of a Temporary Federal Debt Default"

Calculated Risk

The financial market effects of a debt default would be highly uncertain , both because of its unprecedented nature, and because (as events in recent years have illustrated) we have only a limited understanding of the dynamics of the financial system when hit with a major shock. It is up to Congress.

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Secretary Yellen to Speaker McCarthy: "unable to continue to satisfy all of the government’s obligations by early June"

Calculated Risk

From Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to Speaker McCarthy : "After reviewing recent federal tax receipts, our best estimate is that we will be unable to continue to satisfy all of the government's obligations by early June, and potentially as early as June 1, if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before that time."

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Nouriel Roubini Enters The ETF Fray

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

From the fund page : the goal is seeking stable returns across a variety of economic and financial market conditions, consistent with the preservation of capital. The backtest runs from the start of 2011 to the end of 2020. Offering diversified exposure to U.S. Treasuries, real estate, gold, and agricultural commodities."

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Debt Ceiling Primer | Weekly Market Commentary | February 27, 2023

James Hendries

We continue to believe the chances that Congress will fail to raise the debt ceiling before the x date remain extremely low, but current political dynamics have likely increased the risk and there are some negative consequences to even an eleventh hour agreement, as we saw in 2011. Debt Ceiling Questions Answered 1. What is the debt ceiling?

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Off the Beaten Trail

Brown Advisory

Turbulence in various stock markets will probably persist in 2016 as global growth slows because of weakness in emerging economies including China, a leading engine for the world economy during the past decade. Investor concerns about slowing growth have sprung up here and there since 2011 but had yet to set back equities until this year.

Economy 52
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No Pain, No Gain

Investing Caffeine

No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.

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Government Debt and Stock Returns

ClearMoney

But, while government spending may provide a short-term stimulatory effect on the economy, the prospect of higher future taxes and long-run impacts on spending and investment introduces many channels through which spending and debt levels might affect expected stock returns. Reuters (2011). Review of Financial Studies 21, no.