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Monthly NFPs Are Rounding Errors

The Big Picture

That is a significant number to recall whenever people posit we either are in, or just were in, or are about to tumble into a recession. but most months, the specific number is more or less a rounding error. June 3rd, 2011) THE MOST IMPORTANT EVER NFP blah blah blah (June 7th, 2013) “What’s Your NFP Number?”

Numbers 264
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CoreLogic: 1.2 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q1 2023

Calculated Risk

Despite these declines, home equity remains solid, with the number of underwater properties unchanged since the fourth quarter of 2022. Quarterly change: From the fourth quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, the total number of mortgaged homes in negative equity was unchanged, remaining at 1.2 million homes or 2.1%

Numbers 363
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NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased Sharply in October

Calculated Risk

Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. This will be the first year since 2011 to see a decline for single-family starts,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. This situation is unhealthy and unsustainable. Policymakers must address this worsening housing affordability crisis.”

Sales 352
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CoreLogic: 1.11 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q2 2023

Calculated Risk

. • Quarterly change: From the first quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2023, the total number of mortgaged homes in negative equity decreased by 6%, to 1.11 Annual change: From the second quarter of 2022 to the second quarter of 2023, the total number of homes in negative equity increased by 4% from 1.06 million homes or 1.9%

Numbers 320
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CoreLogic: 1.11 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q2 2024

Calculated Risk

. • Quarterly change:  From the second quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2024, the total number of mortgaged homes in negative equity decreased by 4.2%, to 1 million homes or 1.7% Annual change:  From the second quarter of 2023 to the first second of 2024, the total number of homes in negative equity decreased by 15%, to 1.1

Numbers 234
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Change Your Perspective

The Big Picture

Essentially, monthly Non-Farm Payrolls is the net difference between these two groups: The actual number is far smaller and less significant than gets played most publicly. The monthly number ( May 2023 = 339,000) is a tenth or so of the ~1.5% of the 159m total.

Numbers 312
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National Association of Realtors Is Imploding

The Big Picture

By my crude estimates, a substantial number of U.S. March 14th, 2010) Brilliant Amazon Reviews: David Lereah’s RE Books (April 26, 2011) The post National Association of Realtors Is Imploding appeared first on The Big Picture. Lousy behavior tends to expand when an organization perceives itself as irreplaceable.

Numbers 298