Remove 2011 Remove Numbers Remove Valuation
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Change Your Perspective

The Big Picture

Essentially, monthly Non-Farm Payrolls is the net difference between these two groups: The actual number is far smaller and less significant than gets played most publicly. The monthly number ( May 2023 = 339,000) is a tenth or so of the ~1.5% Fair Value : Valuation of equities is one of those things that seems to confuse so many.

Numbers 312
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Just Put It All Into.

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

He didn't specify which of the two (I believe that is the correct number) funds that Hussman managed back then. For 20 years, holy cow, the numbers look great. The ten year numbers tell a much different story due, I think, to the fund's large allocation to gold. Gold was mostly in a downtrend from mid-2011 to early 2016.

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It’s Ugly Out There

The Irrelevant Investor

Historical numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but I do think it can help set baseline expectations. So, I had Nick Maggiulli run the numbers for me, and since 1950, the S&P 500 has declined 10% from its highs 25 times*. Or tech valuations. Few people are worried about a correction. Or the Fed. Or the economy.

Numbers 52
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One of The Great Bubbles of Financial History

The Irrelevant Investor

2010 - Have Cash, Wait for Stocks to Fall 2011 - Grantham sees most global equities as ranging from “unattractive” to “very unattractive” – valuing the S&P 500 at “no more than 950.” Investor enthusiasm, coupled with high valuations, has preceded all major market bubbles. It's been over four years since he wrote this.

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Transcript: Jawad Mian

The Big Picture

The fact that you’ve got declining risk appetite, declines are prolonged, deep and valuations mean revert. The second, and what’s interesting about that period, is the fact that valuations actually peaked in 1961. MIAN: Valuations are ebb and flow. But number two is from a demographic standpoint.

Marketing 130
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Small Caps: The Big Picture

Brown Advisory

As a result of this success, approximately half of companies in the Russell 2000 ® Growth Index (R2G) by weight, and more than half by number of stocks mades zero earnings (Exhibit 2). Exhibit 2: Nonearners as percentage weight and percentage of number of stocks in R2G Source: FactSet Research Systems; Russell Investment Group; Jefferies.

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Small Caps: The Big Picture

Brown Advisory

As a result of this success, approximately half of companies in the Russell 2000 ® Growth Index (R2G) by weight, and more than half by number of stocks mades zero earnings (Exhibit 2). Exhibit 2: Nonearners as percentage weight and percentage of number of stocks in R2G. Exhibit 1: Performance of earners vs. nonearners. Source: FactSet.