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Change Your Perspective

The Big Picture

Fair Value : Valuation of equities is one of those things that seems to confuse so many. Earnings are a fact, analysts’ earnings estimates are an opinion. If a company’s earnings are above or below consensus, it was the analysts who got it wrong and not vice versa.

Numbers 312
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MiB: Ken Kencel, Churchill Asset Management

The Big Picture

He launched the Churchill Financial Group in 2006, which was purchased by PE giant The Carlyle Group in 2011. Known as the Dean of Valuation, he teaches Corporate Finance and Valuation to the MBA students at Stern where he has been voted “Professor of the Year” by the graduating M.B.A. class nine times.

Assets 173
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Revisiting the Market Valuation in the Wake of This Year’s Decline

Validea

With the S&P 500 now close to 20% off its highs, I thought now might be a good time to look to our market valuation tool to see where things stand. But before I do that, I wanted to first cover two caveats I always put in articles about market valuation. With that all being said, let’s look at the current valuation data.

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Four Hard Investing Lessons From 2022 With Silver Linings

Validea

While some of that outperformance was due to improving fundamentals and earnings, most of it the returns came from the valuation investors assigned to these stocks. The chart below shows that of the tech sector’s 760% total return, 620% came from the change (increase) in valuation while 140% came from increasing earnings and dividends.

Investing 128
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Three Things I Think – Midweek Reading

Discipline Funds

But some time around 2011/12 I got tired of living in fear and realized that very few people make money being pessimistic in the long-run. All that scaremongering about the national debt, QE, valuations, Capitalism, etc. The generally optimistic Cullen you might know by now did not exist.

Economy 89
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As Good As it Gets?

The Irrelevant Investor

With the benefit of hindsight, and some valuation expansion, it appears it was buried alive. On a monthly closing basis, it hasn't been more than 5% away from its all-time high since 2011. We've heard about the death of the traditional 60/40 portfolio for a few years now. 1 has compounded at 10.8% a year, for a 152% total return.

Math 52
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Just Put It All Into.

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Gold was mostly in a downtrend from mid-2011 to early 2016. It doesn't look like we're going to get to an extreme panic level for the S&P 500 on this event but as an example, with equities down 40%, you don't need as much protection from gold as when the stock market is at all time highs combined with sky high valuations.