Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Several years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, the plunge in inventory in 2011 (blue arrow on graph below) helped me call the bottom for house prices in early 2012 (see The Housing Bottom is Here ).

Economics 290

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 290

Calculated Risk

APRIL 28, 2023

percent) in March , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through March 2023 (2012 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $67.9 billion (0.3 billion (0.4

Food 320

Food Economics 320

The Big Picture

JUNE 22, 2023

Source: FRED Wealth disparities get ever more lopsided the higher up the economic strata you climb; there is more disparity with the top 1% than the top 10%, but the biggest spreads are at the top 0.1% (and above). The top 0.01% of US households had at least $111 million in net worth in 2012, compared to $4 million for the 1 %.

Distribution 304

Distribution Assets Economics Numbers 304

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

percent at a monthly rate) in August , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August 2023 (2012 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August: Personal income increased $87.6 billion (0.4

Food 321

Food Taxes Economics 321

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Several years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, the plunge in inventory in 2011 (blue arrow on graph below) helped me call the bottom for house prices in early 2012 (see The Housing Bottom is Here ).

Economics 264

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 264

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

MARCH 31, 2023

percent) in February , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through February 2023 (2012 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $72.9 billion (0.3 billion (0.5

Food 261

Food Economics 261

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

percent) in October , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through October 2022 (2012 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October: Personal income increased $155.3 billion (0.7 billion (0.7

Food 228

Food Economics 228

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

percent) in January , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through January 2023 (2012 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for January: Personal income increased $131.1 billion (0.6 billion (2.0

Food 228

Food Economics 228

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

This is the lowest confidence reading since mid-2012, with the exception of the onset of the pandemic in the spring of 2020. “In Dietz added that in this tenuous economic climate, builders still need to plan a year or more out when thinking about land and construction timelines.“NAHB emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 246

Sales Economics Numbers Planning 246

Calculated Risk

JUNE 30, 2023

percent at a monthly rate) in May , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through May 2023 (2012 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for May: Personal income increased $91.2 billion (0.4 billion (0.4

Food 233

Food Taxes Economics 233

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 31, 2023

percent at a monthly rate) in July , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through July 2023 (2012 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for July: Personal income increased $45.0 billion (0.2

Food 217

Food Taxes Economics 217

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2023

Rail volumes today are being negatively influenced by broader economic trends, including slowdowns in industrial output, high inventory levels at many retailers, lower port activity, and consumer spending that’s not as robust as it was during most of the last three years. From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators.

Retail 246

Retail Economics 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2012 63.7% -0.3 2012 63.7% -0.3 2012 63.7% -0.3 in December, down 0.4

Economics 242

Economics Sales Investments Investing 242

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49% November 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the first time since May 2020 after 29 consecutive months of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. percent is 0.4

Manufacturing 263

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 263

The Big Picture

JANUARY 30, 2023

2 * sigh * A few economic truisms: Anything worthwhile requires time and effort. 27, 2023 Previously : One-Sided Markets (September 29, 2021) The Price of Paying Attention (November 2012) Manage Your Media Diet 1. Putting in time and effort is hard, but it gives you experience. It’s Not What Influencers Say It Is.

Media 304

Media Economics Investments Investing 304

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. Prior to the pandemic, economic activity was mostly in the 2% range since 2010. 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investments 278

Calculated Risk

JULY 9, 2024

Not only did he predict the crash, but he also called the 2012 housing price bottom. To better understand Bill McBride's perspective on the current housing and economic cycle, ResiClub reached out and conducted a Q&A with him. housing market in his blog Calculated Risk.

Marketing 173

Marketing Marketing Economics Sales 173

The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2023

It is a “monthly measure of how unpredictable overall economic conditions are 1 month, 3 months, and 1 year ahead.” But “uncertainty” as that word is commonly used on Wall Street 1 seems to be correlated with concerns about faltering economic conditions and/or rising market volatility. And I am okay with that.

Distribution 246

Distribution Economics Communication Media 246

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 30, 2023

percent at a monthly rate) in October , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through October 2023 (2012 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October: Personal income increased $57.1 billion (0.2

Food 182

Food Taxes Economics 182

The Big Picture

MAY 21, 2023

ProPublica ) • 1 in 5 Young Chinese Is Jobless, and Millions More Are About to Graduate : The youth unemployment rate, which spiked during the pandemic, reached a record high this week, showing the perils of China’s uneven economic recovery. ( She routinely mistook her adult son for his uncle. Censoring for Strongmen Is Now a Pattern.

Insurance 296

Insurance Healthcare Nonprofit Ethics 296

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

Panelists’ companies continue to judiciously manage hiring, other than October 2022, the month-over-month supplier delivery performance was the best since February 2012, when it registered 47 percent and material lead times declined approximately 9 percent from the prior month, approximately 18 percent over the last four months. percent is 0.4

Manufacturing 222

Manufacturing Business Planning Management Economy 222

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. One of my favorite responsibilities as chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management is the quarterly conference call I do for our clients. 2 Regardless, something is amiss.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 22, 2023

percent at a monthly rate) in November , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through November 2023 (2012 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $81.6 billion (0.4

Food 182

Food Taxes Economics 182

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2023

Essentially, he was referring to the entire field of behavioral economics. The 10-year returns for equities (2012-2021) when the SPX generated 16.6% I have addressed Tax Alpha before ( see this and this ); but Pomp indirectly raised a very different issue: Why do people underperform their own assets?

Assets 246

Assets Accounting Taxes Economics 246

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

The index year is 2012. Real, inflation-adjusted inventory data from the BEA via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. The chart shows "real" inflation-adjusted inventories. In four of the last six recession, inventories continued to build well into recession. In the other two, inventories peaked just prior to or at the start of recession.

Manufacturing 208

Manufacturing Retail Economy Economics 208

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% The "Art of the Soft Landing" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation. this gives 2.4%

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investments 200

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2012 63.7% -0.3 2012 63.7% -0.3 2012 63.7% -0.3 in November 2022.

Economics 173

Economics Sales Investments Investing 173

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 30, 2023

On the other hand, the past decade has seen an explosion of 'vendor conferences', as more and more companies have discovered it's more economical to simply run their own conferences (at a breakeven or even a small loss) than to heavily sponsor the conferences of industry associations.

Financial Advisor 246

Financial Advisor Numbers Budgeting Financial Planning 246

Calculated Risk

JULY 28, 2023

percent at a monthly rate) in June , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through June 2023 (2012 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June: Personal income increased $69.5 billion (0.3

Food 130

Food Taxes Economics 130

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 7, 2022

What are you getting from consuming 24/7 coverage of the world of economics, markets, and finance? The Price of Paying Attention (November 2012). Instead of pastoral, bucolic imagery, it’s now yelling, arguing, and complaining about Big Garden repressing the landscape — a veritable MMA cage match of faux disagreements.

Financial Advice 287

Financial Advice Media Engineering Advertising 287

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 28, 2023

Unusual Economic Indicators : You might have heard about indicators like the Big Mac Index (if you haven’t, you can read our previous article). Today, we’ll introduce you to some unusual economic indicators that might predict the economic conditions. Most Unusual Economic Indicators 1. What is it? What is the proof?

Economy 64

Economy Economics Sales Government 64

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 5, 2024

This is the first time since 2012 that it’s had back-to-back double-digit quarterly returns. We’ve just come through the first quarter of 2024 – and what a quarter it was! Hard on the heels of a robust end to 2023, the S&P 500 Index rose 11% in the first quarter of this year.

Economics 59

Economics Investing Investments Marketing 59

Fortune Financial

AUGUST 8, 2022

A recurring theme in my articles has been the importance of industry-level economics to the success of an investment; it is not uncommon for all participants in an industry with favorable dynamics to outperform, and, similarly, it is all too common for even the best operators in a poor industry to underperform.

Economics 119

Economics Financial Advisor Retail Investing 119

The Big Picture

AUGUST 17, 2023

When any new economic release comes out, you really don’t know how much is noise and how much is signal. Economic data is especially noisy, subject to revision, and based on models that are “ wrong but useful.” If you learn how to properly frame data, you can avoid errors of this kind.

Economics 130

Economics Media Government Investments 130

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 24, 2023

The latest batch of economic data continue to signal that a recession is on the horizon — we still foresee a downturn unfolding in the second half of the year. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) posted its 12th straight monthly decline, falling to its lowest level since November 2020. from a year ago.

Economics 52

Economics Economy Sales Food 52

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 27, 2023

The most significant economic news last week came from the March FOMC meeting, where the Fed raised the fed funds rate another 25 basis points and indicated that, as of now, one more such rate hike is planned. percent was left unchanged in its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). percent from 4.7 percent in January.

Economics 52

Economics Banking Sales Numbers 52