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October 22, 2012) Investing via Media Market Timing (February 8, 2009) Forecasting & Prediction Discussions Sources : We Found 30 Timing Strategies that “Worked”—and 690 that Didn’t By Wei Dai, PhD, Audrey Dong, DFA, Oct 31, 2023 In the Stock Market, Don’t Buy and Sell. By Jeff Sommer New York Times, Nov. More on this later.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. Initially I joined to help them manage their equity portfolio. It was the exact same trade. I buy everything.
Her job is portfolio and product solutions and that means she could go anywhere in the world and do anything. One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics.
That’s a really easy portfolio to create. It allows you to understand, generally speaking, what is a reasonable beta for that whole portfolio. By the time I got there in ’92, they had a great venture portfolio and almost nobody else even understood what venture capital was. That allows you to do two things.
He is also the Executive Editor of The Life Product Review since 2012. Prior to joining MetLife in 2013, Bobby was a consultant to life insurers, distributors and high-end agents. He is the third generation of his family to work in life insurance. Bobby is a regular keynote speaker at corporate and industry events. Transcript 0:00:00.6
Michael Lewis ] 00:06:54 [Speaker Changed] So going back to about, I dunno, maybe 2012, I’d had made several runs at writing about crypto, mainly at the behest of crypto people because they wanted attention. Because he was all sure he was a totally isolated math. So, so he’s brilliant at math. I thought so.
I’m kind of in intrigued by the idea of philosophy and math. So I found myself getting kind of bored with my math problem sets, and then I could shift to philosophy and then go back and forth. 00:01:29 [Barry Ritholtz] I I, I try not to butcher people’s names, but let’s talk a little bit about your, your background.
And I said, Paul, I don’t know anything about managing a public portfolio, but the deal we made with each other. So we repositioned our portfolio at the end of 22, recognizing that there had been too many dollars that went into safety trades. So here’s the math, Barry. 00:44:49 [Speaker Changed] Correct?
And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting. 00:12:42 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so I joined in August, 2009, and I left to join Hawaiian Bernstein in late 2012. We do have a limit on what percent of the portfolio could be in what’s classified as frontier. It’s about 30% of our portfolio today.
That’s why the markets are much more of a mind game than a math game. And that’s why markets will always be exceedingly hard, even when the math seems easy or the future seems certain. To find the answer, CXO collected and investigated 6,584 forecasts from 2005-2012 for the U.S. Stop with the math.`
But growing rapidly, that market, when we first did our first secondaries transaction as a, as a firm in 2012 was only 20 billion a drop in the bucket. And we get asked by pension plans, endowments, foundations, family offices saying, Hey, we’ve held this portfolio now for eight years, nine years, it’s getting long in the tooth.
There’s a lot of people writing about that back in 2012, 2013, that they started selling at a premium multiple to the market, which is very obviously not the case today. You go even further than that and say, “Most portfolios could be fine if they’re equity only.”. That’s — SIEGEL: Yeah. SIEGEL: Yeah.
So, I did the math, 20 million times a hundred. So, let me just repeat the math. And so, again, I went through this simple math. The currency devalued by 75 percent and my portfolio, which was above $1 billion, went down 90 percent. And this had an unbelievably positive affect on the value of my portfolio.
Then of course the Fukushima did Fukushima disaster in Japan in 2011 and into 2012. I do the math. It’s that there’s a sort of portfolio rebalancing, and I, I, I would put it to you this way, we’ve talked a lot about Walmart. And each time people who pay attention to this stuff.
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