The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 8, 2024

Professor Camerer was became a MacArthur Fellow (Genius grant) in 2013 for his work on risk, self-control, and strategic choice. Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Colin Camerer , the pioneering neuroeconomist at California Institute of Technology.

Economics 189

Economics Management 189

The Reformed Broker

MAY 29, 2023

Okay, it’s up 10,000% since May of 2013 and is now the best performing stock in America during the past decade. Everyone is obsessed. It’s the biggest story in the market this year. Cramer has now named a second family dog after it.

Marketing 333

Marketing Marketing 333

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

I have no idea whether its a long-term staple or a flash in the pan, but it feels to me like I am now at peak Substack… Previously : Things I Don’t Care About (January 15th, 2013) What Do You Control? (May May 30th, 2013) Asking the Right Questions (July 18th, 2013) The Price of Paying Attention (November 2012) Who Do You Trust?

Media 278

Media Management 278

A Wealth of Common Sense

MARCH 16, 2025

Coming into 2025 the S&P 500 had just two down years out of the past 15: 2010 +14.8% 2024 +24.9% We were all probably a little spoiled. Regardless of the reason for the recent swoon, we were due.

115

115

Calculated Risk

JUNE 10, 2024

And on mortgage rates, here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q4 2023 (Q1 2024 data will be released in three weeks).

Distribution 299

Distribution 299

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

The best examples are 1946-66, 1982-2000, and 2013 forward. for this to be the case two things must have happened: 1) The secular bull market that began in 2013 has ended, and 2) We are now in a new secular bear market. We call these eras Secular Bull Markets.

Economy 328

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 328

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 13, 2025

Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Transition into serious delinquency, defined as 90 or more days past due, edged up for auto loans, credit cards, and HELOC balances but remained stable for mortgages. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. rise from 2024Q3.

Economics 205

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 205

Calculated Risk

JULY 1, 2024

Here is some data showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q4 2023. This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic.

Distribution 298

Distribution 298

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

@TBPInvictus here Our story so far : California has been raising its minimum wage for the past decade, starting at $8/hour through 2013. Many fast food workers (specifically) got bumped to $20/hour, from $16, in April (the law is very specific about who is eligible for the increase).

Food 306

Food Math Numbers Economics 306

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 2, 2024

Here is some data showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q2 2024. This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic.

Distribution 278

Distribution 278

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2024

And on mortgage rates, here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q1 2024 (Q2 2024 data will be released in two weeks).

Distribution 271

Distribution 271

Calculated Risk

JULY 7, 2023

million units in the first six months of 2023, the fewest for the first six months of a year since 2013. The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2021, 2022 and 2023: (using intermodal or shipping containers): U.S. intermodal was down 10.3% Volume was 6.11

Retail 357

Retail Numbers 357

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

Consider these columns going back to 2013 pointing out the foolishness of tax-payer subsidized corporate welfare queens (2013), and why median wages were rising ( 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2018 , 2019 ). Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

The Big Picture

JANUARY 29, 2025

February 17, 2015) Click for video [link] Source: Economics Media Library The post The Daily Show: Wage Against the Machine appeared first on The Big Picture.

Media 113

Media Economics 113

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

On the discouraging side, January 2023 was the worst January for intermodal since 2013 , with originations down 8.1% Intermodal volume averaged 229,982 units per week in January 2023, the fewest for January since 2013. January 2022 was the worst January for total carloads in our records that begin in 1988. from last year. railroads.

Retail 237

Retail Numbers 237

Calculated Risk

MARCH 13, 2024

And on mortgage rates, here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q3 2023 (Q4 2023 data will be released in a two weeks).

Distribution 276

Distribution 276

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2024

percent is now at its highest level since fourth quarter 2013, driven by office portfolios at the largest banks. The quarterly increase was led by commercial and industrial loans and non-owner-occupied CRE loans. The noncurrent rate for non-owner occupied CRE loans of 1.59 emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Numbers 312

Numbers Banking Insurance Assets 312

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 8, 2023

June 3rd, 2011) THE MOST IMPORTANT EVER NFP blah blah blah (June 7th, 2013) “What’s Your NFP Number?” workers in the economy that excludes proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, farm employees, and the unincorporated self-employed.

Numbers 264

Numbers Retirement Economy Accounting 264

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

The second table shows the change in construction and manufacturing payrolls starting in 2006.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Wages in America (2013-2021). Wealth Distribution in America (April 11, 2019). Composition of Wealth Differs: Middle Class to the Top 1% (June 5, 2019). No, Your iPhone Does Not Make You Wealthy (June 4, 2018). Source : Moving between wealth brackets: Minimum cutoffs from the Distributional Financial Accounts.

Distribution 312

Distribution Accounting Economics 312

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Way back in 2013, I wrote a post " Predicting the Next Recession. That was written in 2013, and it appears once again that we've avoided the "default" policy error. 1) Most of the post-WWII recessions were caused by the Fed tightening monetary policy to slow inflation.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Way back in 2013, I wrote a post " Predicting the Next Recession. I disagreed and noted I wasn't even on recession watch! Now it seems like most forecasts are for a recession in 2023. My answer is: Maybe. This post was in response to several recession forecasts (that were also incorrect).

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

The Big Picture

JUNE 16, 2023

Previously : America’s Corporate Welfare Queens (November 13, 2013) Minimum Wage Increases Do Not Destroy Jobs (January 24, 2019) Generational Reset of Minimum Wage (November 30, 2021) Wages in America The post Americonned appeared first on The Big Picture. And the personal stories are compelling.

Numbers 334

Numbers 334

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2023

Here is some data showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q3 2023. This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic.

Distribution 272

Distribution 272

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 11, 2023

Here is a graph of the participation rate by age cohort for November (1983, 1993, 2003, 2013 and 2023 NSA). Second, the reason we use the 25 to 54 group is that the participation rate is fairly steady across the entire age spectrum.

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290

The Big Picture

MAY 6, 2023

Previously, he was head of the European Special Situations Group from 2008-13, and head of the Global Special Situations Group: 2013-19. He is also a member of the management committee, and Co-Chairs the Asset Management Investment Committees, which includes private equity, infrastructure, growth equity, credit, and real estate.

Wealth Management 303

Wealth Management Assets Management Clients 303

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Way back in 2013, I wrote a post " Predicting the Next Recession. And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. So, it is extremely unlikely there was a recession. This post was in response to several recession forecasts (that were also incorrect).

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 2, 2023

The Pandemic crash and rally was a 34% reset and a continuation of the bull that formally began in March 2013. February 4, 2013) Looking at the Very Very Long Term (November 6, 2003) Bull & Bear Markets The post Where is This Rally Going? Secular Bull Market : US stocks are in the 5-6th inning of a bull market.

Taxes 288

Taxes Portfolio Marketing Marketing 288

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2022

Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased by $100 billion and now stand at $4.22 trillion–the largest increase in more than ten years. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. rise from 2022Q1.

Retail 363

Retail Banking Accounting 363

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 25, 2022

Note the issue with OER is not a new phenomenon, and the research note 1 above was from 2013. Mike Bryan and Nick Parker, March 11, 2013). I thought that was important enough when I saw it in 2013 to have mirrored it at The Big Picture. -Mike Bryan and Nick Parker, MacroBlog , Atlanta Federal Reserve. Think Again.

Government 290

Government Assets Retail Manufacturing 290

Calculated Risk

MAY 24, 2023

Here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q4 2022.

Sales 246

Sales Distribution 246

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 11, 2023

Here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q1 2023 (Q2 2023 data will be released in a few weeks).

Distribution 246

Distribution Numbers Planning 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2024

million) from 2021, and the lowest annual volume since 2013. For all of 2023, U.S. intermodal originations totaled 12.67 million containers and trailers — down 4.9% (657,165 units) from 2022 , down 9.6% (1.35 In 2023, containers were 94.9% intermodal units, a record high. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

257

257

Calculated Risk

JULY 13, 2023

Here is some data from the recently released FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q1 2023. Currently 23.3% of loans are under 3%, 61.3% are under 4%, and 81.2% are under 5%.

Marketing 238

Marketing Marketing Distribution Sales 238

The Big Picture

JUNE 22, 2023

(December 5, 2022) The Super Wealthy versus the Merely Rich (February 7, 2022) Wealth Distribution in America (April 11, 2019) Composition of Wealth Differs: Middle Class to the Top 1% (June 5, 2019) Wages in America (2013-2021) The post Wealth Inequality Starts at the Top appeared first on The Big Picture.

Distribution 306

Distribution Assets Economics Numbers 306

The Big Picture

AUGUST 25, 2022

After the launch of RWM in 2013, we tried different formats: The Evidence-Based Investment conference tried to pull some of the irrationality out of typical conferences; Wealth | Stack looked at the intersection of technology and wealth management. It didn’t have to be expensive or exclusive, so long as it was informative and useful.

Wealth Management 337

Wealth Management Investing Investments Marketing 337

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 6, 2024

Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Delinquency transition rates for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages increased slightly. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here are three graphs from the report : The first graph shows household debt increased in Q2. rise from 2024Q1.

Retail 325

Retail Banking Accounting Economics 325