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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 298
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Question #1 for 2023: How much will the economy grow in 2023? Will there be a recession in 2023?

Calculated Risk

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. Or will the economy lose jobs? 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 278
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Countertrend ?

The Big Picture

When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. The best examples are 1946-66, 1982-2000, and 2013 forward. The counterargument is the spike in inflation has changed the dynamic of the economy.

Economy 328
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Predicting the Next Recession

Calculated Risk

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. Way back in 2013, I wrote a post " Predicting the Next Recession.

Sales 363
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Surprise! California’s 40 Qs of Rising Minimum Wage & Fast Food Industry Growth (Beating USA)

The Big Picture

@TBPInvictus here Our story so far : California has been raising its minimum wage for the past decade, starting at $8/hour through 2013. Economies are extremely dynamic, ever-changing on a day-to-day basis. I will, however, make a couple of substantive points by way of rebuttal: Correlation is not causation.

Food 306
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Recession Watch

Calculated Risk

Way back in 2013, I wrote a post " Predicting the Next Recession. Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. My answer is: Maybe.

Sales 361
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Recession Watch Update

Calculated Risk

Way back in 2013, I wrote a post " Predicting the Next Recession. Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession.

Sales 363