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Previously : The Timing Mistake: Thoughts & Pushback (August 26, 2020) Market Timing for Fun & Profit (August 28, 2020) The Art of Calling a Market Top (October 4, 2017) DOs and DONTs of Market Crashes (January 16, 2016) The Truth About Market Timing (March 13, 2013) Timing the Market? By Jeff Sommer New York Times, Nov.
So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. SALISBURY: So I led the European Special Situations Group from 2008 to 2013. RITHOLTZ: Really intriguing.
Duke math professor Jonathan Mattingly claimed the average college basketball fan has a far better chance of achieving bracket perfection than one in 9.2 In Monte Carlo, on August 18, 2013, a Roulette ball landed on black 26 times in a row – the longest such streak ever recorded, with odds against of 136,823,184 to one.
For the last ten years it's down about 13% but adding even just 6% per year back in for dividends, 60% total using simple math is a total return of 47% or 4.7% Given that MCN went up during the Taper Tantrum of 2013, I lean toward thinking it was equity beta. The nucleus of non-gameover portfolios will always be equities.
I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. RITHOLTZ: Whereas the — and the market when — essentially didn’t get above 2000 to like 2013 or so. RITHOLTZ: Applied Mathematics, Quants, those guys, yeah. I love statistics.
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I did in 2013 the largest banking transaction that the market had seen since the financial crisis, it was a $2.4 And I did the math, and I think at that point in time, roughly speaking, assets in ETS were roughly just 10 percent, 12 percent of assets in mutual funds and I was pretty convinced that that number was to increase significantly.
Prior to joining MetLife in 2013, Bobby was a consultant to life insurers, distributors and high-end agents. Bobby was formerly Senior Vice President and Head of Life Insurance and Annuity Product Development and Pricing at Brighthouse Financial and Vice President of Life Product Development at MetLife. Excuse exactly.
So 00:09:10 [Speaker Changed] I know Orion for many years because from the RIA perspective, from a registered investment advisor perspective, clients want to know how their portfolios are doing, what their performance is, both in absolute terms and relative to benchmarks. So tell us a little bit about that.
Not only did he stand up a research shop from a dorm room in college and started selling model portfolios to fund managers, but eventually created a suite of first mutual funds. And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. People have described that in the past as portable alpha.
The academic side of how to build a portfolio, we can argue about the details, right? As an advisor, you could get somebody’s model portfolio, or you could hire some, you know, three CFAs and do it yourself. Some advisor that’s out there can say, “I have generally 1% alpha for the last three years in my model portfolio.”
And I said, Paul, I don’t know anything about managing a public portfolio, but the deal we made with each other. So we repositioned our portfolio at the end of 22, recognizing that there had been too many dollars that went into safety trades. So here’s the math, Barry. 00:44:49 [Speaker Changed] Correct?
And then I don’t know what God smiled on me, but I got hired by the Wall Street Journal in 2013. RITHOLTZ: So you start in 2013, and then you proceed to get some major news stories that you either covered intimately or broke. You know, when I got hired in 2013, M&A was dead. And that’s sort of the math.
And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting. And so I joined in early 2013 and specifically joined initially to cover Sub-Saharan African stocks and also to help launch this new fund, which was called the Next 50 Emerging Markets Equity Strategy. It’s about 30% of our portfolio today.
So in 2013, just like you said, VCs are not perfect. LINDZON: So at the time in 2013, you could look through the financial statements of Schwab and TD public statements, and they were spending $150 for a customer acquisition. So this is the math that I applied. So think about this, do the math. They are like MOS.
And we get asked by pension plans, endowments, foundations, family offices saying, Hey, we’ve held this portfolio now for eight years, nine years, it’s getting long in the tooth. And here’s the most important fact that as ultra high net worth and high net worth individuals build out their portfolios.
There’s a lot of people writing about that back in 2012, 2013, that they started selling at a premium multiple to the market, which is very obviously not the case today. You go even further than that and say, “Most portfolios could be fine if they’re equity only.”. That’s — SIEGEL: Yeah. SIEGEL: Yeah.
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