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Where is This Rally Going?

The Big Picture

The Pandemic crash and rally was a 34% reset and a continuation of the bull that formally began in March 2013. Those of you looking for income might consider putting fresh money to work building a bespoke muni portfolio, or buying the appropriate muni fund for your circumstances. ( Depending on the specifics a 4.5-5%

Taxes 288
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MiB: Colin Camerer on Neuroeconomics

The Big Picture

Camerer won the MacArthur Fellow (Genius award) in 2013. He is the portfolio manager of the Return Stacked ETF Suite, manging 800 million in ETF assets. He is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and holds fellowship at the Econometric Society and the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory.

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Monthly NFPs Are Rounding Errors

The Big Picture

June 3rd, 2011) THE MOST IMPORTANT EVER NFP blah blah blah (June 7th, 2013) “What’s Your NFP Number?” – but most months, the specific number is more or less a rounding error. This is not a popular opinion.

Numbers 264
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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?

The Big Picture

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. My portfolio was tiny; I had no 401k, and my wife’s 403(b), with less than a decade’s worth of contributions, was barely 5-figures.

Marketing 336
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What Else Might be Driving Sentiment?

The Big Picture

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. This has enormous ramifications for everything from our portfolios, policies and politics… See also , Failures’ Fallout (Mehlman, August 21, 2021) Teens Spend Average of 4.8

Media 351
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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

Previously : The Timing Mistake: Thoughts & Pushback (August 26, 2020) Market Timing for Fun & Profit (August 28, 2020) The Art of Calling a Market Top (October 4, 2017) DOs and DONTs of Market Crashes (January 16, 2016) The Truth About Market Timing (March 13, 2013) Timing the Market?

Marketing 304
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The Advisory | June 2013

Brown Advisory

The Advisory | June 2013. Sat, 06/01/2013 - 11:20. As multiyear stimulus from central banks pours liquidity into the markets, equity investors would be wise to align their portfolios with the bankers.

Banking 52