Wealth Management

DECEMBER 21, 2022

That was the 11th consecutive quarter of gains, the longest streak since 2014.

Banking 278

Banking Marketing Marketing 278

A Wealth of Common Sense

MARCH 16, 2025

Coming into 2025 the S&P 500 had just two down years out of the past 15: 2010 +14.8% 2024 +24.9% We were all probably a little spoiled. Regardless of the reason for the recent swoon, we were due.

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Wealth Management

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Denver Broncos owner Pat Bowlen resigned as CEO of the team in 2014 and died in 2019. His unique estate plan tasked a group of trustees with finding a new owner.

Estate Planning 260

Estate Planning Planning 260

Calculated Risk

MAY 8, 2023

The left graph is 1990 to 2014. Standards tightened for all consumer loan categories; demand weakened for auto and other consumer loans, while it remained basically unchanged for credit cards. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts.

Banking 363

Banking Government Marketing Marketing 363

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 5, 2024

The left graphs are from 1990 to 2014. This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. This graph is for demand and shows that demand has declined. The right graphs are from 2015 to Q2 2024.

Banking 329

Banking 329

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2022

For in depth description of these issues, see Jed Kolko's article from 2014 "Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data" Note: I was one of several people to question the change in the seasonal factor (here is a post in 2009 ) - and this led to S&P Case-Shiller questioning the seasonal factor too ( from April 2010 ).

Sales 355

Sales 355

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

The left graph is 1990 to 2014. Moreover, for credit card, auto, and other consumer loans, standards reportedly tightened, and demand weakened on balance. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. This shows that demand has declined.

Banking 328

Banking Government 328

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

Let’s have a look: Over the 10 year period from 2014 to 2023, CA has grown its QSR workforce by 31.5% The fact that California has trounced the rest of the country over the course of a decade tells me much more than a relatively small loss over the course of three quarters. to only 19.5% to just 18.8%

Food 306

Food Math Numbers Economics 306

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2024

million units, virtually the same as the average for the first quarters from 2014 to 2023 (3.28 The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2022, 2023 and 2024: (using intermodal or shipping containers): U.S. railroads originated 1.02 It’s their seventh straight year-over-year gain. million).

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Wealth Management

APRIL 13, 2023

Mack led Wells Fargo Advisors from 2014 until mid-2016.

Retirement 221

Retirement 221

Wealth Management

JUNE 16, 2023

The SEC said on Friday that Pimco failed to disclose key information to investors about how swaps could impact its PIMCO Global StocksPLUS & Income Fund between 2014 and 2016.

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The Reformed Broker

JUNE 2, 2023

This week, Michael Batnick, Cathie Wood, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss investing in innovation, AI fact vs fiction, how big Tesla can get, why Ark bought Nvidia in 2014, Zoom vs Google Meet vs Microsoft Teams, and much more! Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. Listen here: Apple podcasts Spoti.

Investing 246

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 246

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 5, 2024

Sources : Art Cashin, New York Stock Exchange fixture for decades, dies at age 83 Bob Pisani CNBC, Dec 2 2024 Cashin on the Cuban Missile Crisis / North Korea (August 14, 2017) The World Is Ending? Invest as If It Won’t.

Compliance 290

Compliance Marketing Marketing Management 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

The second table shows the change in construction and manufacturing payrolls starting in 2006.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

This brings us to the chart: The one above shows the traffic of prospective buyers looking at a new home (2014- 2022); the one below goes back to the 1980s. The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike).

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

APRIL 13, 2023

As I noted in 2014, this was positive for apartments, and more recently positive for housing. In 2022, the top 6 cohorts were under 45 (the Boomers are fading away), and by 2030 the top 10 cohorts will be the youngest 10 cohorts.

Economy 363

Economy Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 19, 2023

This was written in 2014, but I never published it! A short comment on "short memories". Voters have "short memories". Sometimes "short memories" are good. Albert Schweitzer once said, "Happiness is nothing more than good health and a bad memory".

Budgeting 277

Budgeting Economy 277

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Random Shocks and Business Cycles by Thorsten Drautzburg Economic Insights, Q1 2019 Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia An astonishing record – of complete failure Tim Harford FT, May 30, 2014 The post Can Economists Predict Recessions? appeared first on The Big Picture.

Banking 298

Banking Economy Economics 298

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2023

The Zillow index started in 2014, the ApartmentList index started in 2017, and CoreLogic in 2004. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Rents Continue to Decline More than Seasonally Normal A brief excerpt: OER and rent of primary residence have mostly moved together.

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 25, 2023

appeared first on The Big Picture.

Management 306

Management Investing Investments Financial Market 306

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2022

How Greenspan Became the ex-Maestro (August 11, 2014). Previously : Farewell, TINA (September 28, 2022). Blame the Fed For Everything! June 9, 2022). Normalization vs Inflation (March 14, 2022). Who is to Blame, 1-25 (June 29, 2009). _. For the full calendar year 2020, the total return for the S&P 50 index was 18.4%; the 67.9%

Banking 336

Banking Economics Portfolio Assets 336

Calculated Risk

JULY 31, 2023

The left graph is 1990 to 2014. Furthermore, standards tightened for all consumer loan categories; demand weakened for auto and other consumer loans, while it remained basically unchanged for credit card loans. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This shows that demand has declined. The right graph is 2015 to Q1 2023.

Banking 246

Banking Government 246

The Big Picture

JUNE 22, 2023

Using IRS data, University of California at Berkeley’s Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman’s 2014 study found: The share of total wealth of the top 1% has increased steadily, from below 25% in 1978 to 42% in 2012. And, it has accelerated over the past few decades. The share of total wealth of the top 0.1%

Distribution 306

Distribution Assets Numbers Economics 306

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 18, 2022

Sales are now below pre-pandemic levels and, excluding the pandemic decline, sales are the lowest level since 2014. Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.81 million SAAR in July Excerpt: ales in July (4.81 million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 20.2%

Sales 249

Sales Marketing Marketing 249

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2023

Mortgage originations, which include refinances, dropped sharply in the first quarter of 2023 to $324 billion, the lowest level seen since 2014. In total, non-housing balances grew by $24 billion. The volume of newly originated auto loans was $162 billion, a reduction from pandemic-era highs but still elevated compared to pre-Covid volumes.

Retail 335

Retail Banking Accounting 335

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

For in depth description of these issues, see Jed Kolko's article from 2014 "Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data" Note: I was one of several people to question the change in the seasonal factor (here is a post in 2009 ) - and this led to S&P Case-Shiller questioning the seasonal factor too ( from April 2010 ).

Sales 237

Sales 237

The Reformed Broker

JUNE 4, 2023

We talked innovation, AI fact vs fiction, how big Tesla can get, why Ark bought Nvidia in 2014, Zoom vs Google Meet vs Microsoft Teams, and much more! Petersburg area this week and got to spend some time with the founder of ARK Invest. Watch or listen to the episode below. You can watch the new TCAF below or l.

Investing 177

Investing Investments 177

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

It is tremendously humbling to recognize how little we actually know and how easy it is to misunderstand any complex system — be it politics, markets, or just the world around us… See also : Blueprint for the Global Village (This View Of Life, Sep 4, 2014). Previously : Unconventional Wisdom (November 9, 2022). August 9, 2022).

Management 317

Management Marketing Marketing 317

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 13, 2023

Previously : MiB: Laszlo Birinyi (September 13, 2014) How News Looks When Its Old (October 29, 2021) The post Birinyi’s Axioms appeared first on The Big Picture. Predicting rain doesn’t count; building arks or selling umbrellas does. You are the only judge of experts. Free advice is not worth it. Investing really is a profession.

Media 219

Media Clients Investing Investments 219

Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 18, 2023

Accordingly, just as I did last year , and in 2021 , 2020 , 2019 , 2018 , 2017 , 2016 , 2015 , and 2014 , I've compiled for you this Highlights List of our top 2 2 articles in 2023 that you might have missed , along with a few of our most popular episodes of "Kitces & Carl" and the "Financial Advisor Success" podcasts.

Financial Advisor 246

Financial Advisor Numbers 246

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 8, 2023

Don’t have one] (August 2nd, 2013) NFP: Pay No Attention to the Statistician Behind the Curtains (January 10, 2014) Don’t Suffer From Denominator Blindness (October 14, 2015) _ 1: All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number of U.S.

Numbers 264

Numbers Retirement Accounting Economy 264

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 10, 2023

June 21, 2021) Tversky and Kahneman Changed How We Think (December 5, 2016) How Shiller helped Fama win the Nobel (October 26, 2013) Plus, I have to include the discussion of Amos Tevarsky and Danny Kahnemann: Michael Lewis on The Undoing Project (December 10, 2016) The post MiB: The Nobel Laureates appeared first on The Big Picture.

Investing 147

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Purchase applications continued to be hampered by broader weakness in the housing market and declined slightly over the week, with the index slipping to its lowest level since 2014,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist.

Government 233

Government Economy Marketing Marketing 233

The Big Picture

APRIL 26, 2023

Previously : How Market Tops Get Made (March 12, 2014) 2021: Small, Medium & Large Cap Returns (January 4, 2022) Top 5 Stocks: What Does This Mean? There is always a good reason to notice when markets get too narrow at the end of a long bull market, especially as major indices make all-time highs.

Portfolio Management 288

Portfolio Management Marketing Marketing Portfolio 288

Nerd's Eye View

JUNE 10, 2024

It quickly became a perennial favorite on Nerd's Eye View, and so I've updated it every year, with new lists of books in 2014 , 2015 , 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2019 , 2020 , 2021 , 2022 , and a fresh round last year in 2023.

Financial Advisor 246

Financial Advisor Financial Planner Clients Communication 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 9, 2022

I wrote an update in 2014 , and argued vehicle sales would "mostly move sideways" for the next few years. Back in early 2009, I wrote a couple of posts arguing there would be an increase in auto sales - Vehicle Sales (Jan 2009) and Looking for the Sun (Feb 2009). Here is another update to the U.S. fleet turnover graph.

Sales 208

Sales Numbers Economy 208

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 5, 2024

The left graphs are from 1990 to 2014. This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. The upper graphs are for standards and shows standards have tightened. The lower graph is for demand and shows that demand has declined. The right graphs are from 2015 to Q4 2023.

Banking 214

Banking Government 214