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Surprise! California’s 40 Qs of Rising Minimum Wage & Fast Food Industry Growth (Beating USA)

The Big Picture

To prove their point, a number of friendly commentators, academics, and hired guns all wrote endless white papers, Op-Eds and commentaries. But they made one super-sized mistake: they cheated with the numbers. Economies are extremely dynamic, ever-changing on a day-to-day basis. Our story began with a Wall St. to only 19.5%

Food 306
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Collapse in Prospective Home Buyer Traffic

The Big Picture

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Rising Fed Funds Rates make capital and credit more expensive; the calculus around both debt and equity shifts.

Budgeting 363
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U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2022

Calculated Risk

There will be plenty of "gray hairs" walking around in 2030, but the key for the economy is the population in the prime working age group is now increasing. As I noted in 2014, this was positive for apartments, and more recently positive for housing. This is why - a number of years ago - I was so positive on housing.

Economy 363
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Monthly NFPs Are Rounding Errors

The Big Picture

That is a significant number to recall whenever people posit we either are in, or just were in, or are about to tumble into a recession. but most months, the specific number is more or less a rounding error. It was that 157.087 million people are employed full-time in the United States.1 This is not a popular opinion.

Numbers 264
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Another Strong Jobs Report? Phooey, and I Can Prove It

Mish Talk

Economy Added 263,000 Jobs in November" Both reports and mainstream in general miss the big picture captured in my lead chart. The number of working-age persons people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. Full time employment is down 398,000 since March and down by 480,000 since May!

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Vehicle Sales: Fleet Turnover Ratio and the Inflation Impact

Calculated Risk

This was an out-of-the-consensus call and helped me call the bottom for the US economy in mid-2009. I wrote an update in 2014 , and argued vehicle sales would "mostly move sideways" for the next few years. This graph shows the total number of registered vehicles in the U.S. Here is another update to the U.S.

Sales 208
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The Equity Beat: Can the Swift Economy Remain on Stage?

Brown Advisory

The Equity Beat: Can the Swift Economy Remain on Stage? No less an authority on the economy than the Federal Reserve stated, “May was the strongest month for hotel revenue in Philadelphia since the onset of the pandemic, in large part due to an influx of guests for the Taylor Swift concerts in the city.” economy afloat this summer!

Economy 98