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Surprise! California’s 40 Qs of Rising Minimum Wage & Fast Food Industry Growth (Beating USA)

The Big Picture

To prove their point, a number of friendly commentators, academics, and hired guns all wrote endless white papers, Op-Eds and commentaries. But they made one super-sized mistake: they cheated with the numbers. Let’s have a look: Over the 10 year period from 2014 to 2023, CA has grown its QSR workforce by 31.5%

Food 306
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Collapse in Prospective Home Buyer Traffic

The Big Picture

This brings us to the chart: The one above shows the traffic of prospective buyers looking at a new home (2014- 2022); the one below goes back to the 1980s. For everyone who is not a cash buyer of a house — that is about 75% of the homes sold nationally (and about half in places like Manhattan) — those numbers can be budgeted.

Budgeting 363
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U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2022

Calculated Risk

As I noted in 2014, this was positive for apartments, and more recently positive for housing. This is why - a number of years ago - I was so positive on housing. In 2022, the top 6 cohorts were under 45 (the Boomers are fading away), and by 2030 the top 10 cohorts will be the youngest 10 cohorts. And this is a positive for the economy.

Economy 363
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Monthly NFPs Are Rounding Errors

The Big Picture

That is a significant number to recall whenever people posit we either are in, or just were in, or are about to tumble into a recession. but most months, the specific number is more or less a rounding error. It was that 157.087 million people are employed full-time in the United States.1 This is not a popular opinion.

Numbers 264
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Wealth Inequality Starts at the Top

The Big Picture

Using IRS data, University of California at Berkeley’s Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman’s 2014 study found: The share of total wealth of the top 1% has increased steadily, from below 25% in 1978 to 42% in 2012. And, it has accelerated over the past few decades. The share of total wealth of the top 0.1%

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Another Strong Jobs Report? Phooey, and I Can Prove It

Mish Talk

The number of working-age persons people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. Birth Death Model Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report. Labor Force Another 186,000 people dropped out of the labor force in November. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls.

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Vehicle Sales: Fleet Turnover Ratio and the Inflation Impact

Calculated Risk

I wrote an update in 2014 , and argued vehicle sales would "mostly move sideways" for the next few years. This graph shows the total number of registered vehicles in the U.S. This graph shows the total number of registered vehicles in the U.S. Note: the number of registered vehicles is estimated for 2021 and 2022.

Sales 208