Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of January 6th, inventory was at 471 thousand (7-day average), compared to 491 thousand the prior week. Inventory has declined sharply seasonally in the winter. The red Dot is for the first week of 2023. The black line is for 2019.

362

362

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 14, 2023

Envestnet paid about $590 million for Yodlee in 2015.

Sales 289

Sales 289

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 19, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. This is the highest level of inventory since June 2020 ; however, inventory is still well below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 40.4%

340

340

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 21, 2024

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.0% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 49.7% from the February seasonal bottom. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 33.4%

325

325

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2025

The right graph is from 2015 to Q4 2024. This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. This graph is for demand and shows that demand has been weak since late 2021. The left graph is from 1990 to 2014.

Banking 162

Banking Marketing Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 17, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of April 14th, inventory was at 405 thousand (7-day average), compared to 411 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is down 17.4%. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

361

361

Calculated Risk

JUNE 10, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of June 7th, inventory was at 612 thousand (7-day average), compared to 605 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 37.8%

344

344

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 5, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. This is the highest level of inventory since June 2020 ; however, inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 39.9%

322

322

Calculated Risk

JUNE 12, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Year-to-date, inventory is down 9.7%. And inventory is up 9.3% from the seasonal bottom eight weeks ago. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

363

363

Calculated Risk

APRIL 29, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of April 26th, inventory was at 556 thousand (7-day average), compared to 543 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019.

338

338

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

If you were in Congress from 2015-2021, you are the reason why HALF of the projected federal debt will soon be interest payments. Source: Chartr We talked about this 2 weeks ago , but the nation missed a fantastic opportunity to refinance all of the outstanding US debt at much lower levels.

Budgeting 321

Budgeting 321

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Year-to-date, inventory is down 14.3%. And inventory is up 3.7% from the seasonal bottom four weeks ago. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

353

353

Calculated Risk

MAY 13, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of May 10th, inventory was at 568 thousand (7-day average), compared to 560 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 35.0%

337

337

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Inventory is now up 1.3% from the bottom four weeks ago. Inventory has been little changed over the last 4 weeks. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 27.8%

147

147

Calculated Risk

MAY 20, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of May 17th, inventory was at 578 thousand (7-day average), compared to 568 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 36.0%

328

328

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Year-to-date, inventory is down 14.0%. And inventory is up 4.1% from the bottom two weeks ago. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

361

361

Calculated Risk

APRIL 10, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of April 7th, inventory was at 411 thousand (7-day average), compared to 410 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is down 16.3%. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

350

350

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of September 27th, inventory was at 731 thousand (7-day average), compared to 725 thousand the prior week. This is the highest level of inventory since May 2020. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 36.7%

315

315

Calculated Risk

APRIL 1, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of March 29th, inventory was at 517 thousand (7-day average), compared to 513 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019.

327

327

Calculated Risk

JULY 3, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Year-to-date, inventory is down 5.1%. And inventory is up 14.9% from the seasonal bottom eleven weeks ago. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

360

360

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 2, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of December 30th, inventory was at 491 thousand (7-day average), compared to 508 thousand the prior week. Inventory has declined sharply over the holidays. The red line is for 2022. The black line is for 2019.

351

351

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 14, 2024

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.3% from the February seasonal bottom. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 34.0%

306

306

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 21, 2023

The Barclays breakaway discusses his 2015 landmark leap with five partners, three offices, and $3 billion in AUM, plus shares why he feels UHNW clients are best served in independence, what they do to drive extraordinary growth, and much more.

Clients 278

Clients 278

Calculated Risk

APRIL 8, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of April 5th, inventory was at 513 thousand (7-day average), compared to 517 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019.

331

331

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 20, 2022

About 15 million clients’ details were compromised over a five-year period starting 2015.

Clients 261

Clients 261

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Inventory is now 2.8% below the peak for the year (5 weeks ago). Inventory will now decline seasonally until early next year. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 27.1%

162

162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 16, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of January 13th, inventory was at 473 thousand (7-day average), compared to 471 thousand the prior week. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

345

345

Calculated Risk

MARCH 6, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of March 3rd, inventory was at 419 thousand (7-day average), compared to 430 thousand the prior week. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

353

353

Calculated Risk

JUNE 24, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of June 21st, inventory was at 634 thousand (7-day average), compared to 621 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 37.7%

320

320

Calculated Risk

APRIL 15, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of April 12th, inventory was at 526 thousand (7-day average), compared to 513 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019.

320

320

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 7, 2024

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.6% from the February seasonal bottom. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 36.7%

304

304

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 30, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of January 27th, inventory was at 466 thousand (7-day average), compared to 472 thousand the prior week. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

341

341

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 23, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of January 20th, inventory was at 472 thousand (7-day average), compared to 473 thousand the prior week. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

349

349

Calculated Risk

MAY 6, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of May 3rd, inventory was at 560 thousand (7-day average), compared to 556 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 33.1%

309

309

Calculated Risk

APRIL 3, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of March 31st, inventory was at 410 thousand (7-day average), compared to 413 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is down 16.5%, and at the lowest point so far this year. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

330

330

Calculated Risk

JUNE 5, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Year-to-date, inventory is down 11.1%. And inventory is up 7.6% from the seasonal bottom seven weeks ago. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

338

338

A Wealth of Common Sense

MARCH 16, 2025

Coming into 2025 the S&P 500 had just two down years out of the past 15: 2010 +14.8% 2024 +24.9% We were all probably a little spoiled. Regardless of the reason for the recent swoon, we were due.

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116