The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. 3 This was evident way back in 2015, when the post-GFC recovery was in full flower but was broadly ignored by much of the population. 2 Regardless, something is amiss.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 26, 2022

“Refinance applications were ess entially unchanged, but purchase applications declined 2 percent to the slowest pace since 2015 – over 40 percent behind last year’s pace. The purchase index is 12% below the pandemic low and at the lowest level since 2015. Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

Economics 210

Economics Marketing Marketing 210

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2015 62.7% -0.1 2015 62.7% -0.1 2015 62.7% -0.1 in December, down 0.4

Economics 242

Economics Sales Investments Investing 242

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 16, 2022

History suggests that the Fed’s recognition of key market and economic indicators also is on an excessive lag. Consider : In the 2010s, the Fed remained on emergency footing from 2008, when they took rates to 0 (zero) until December 2015 (this created lots of distortions). The result is Fed is always late to the party.

Economics 312

Economics Banking Marketing Marketing 312

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. Prior to the pandemic, economic activity was mostly in the 2% range since 2010. 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 276

Economy Sales Economics Investing 276

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 5, 2022

percent last week – the highest rate since 2006,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. The purchase index is 5% below the pandemic low and at the lowest level since 2015. The 30-year fixed rate hit 6.75 Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

Economics 246

Economics 246

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Large contractors would also have to publish an annual climate disclosure and develop “science-based targets” to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in alignment with the goals of the 2015 Paris agreement. That means contractors will have to aim to zero out emissions and possibly require their contractors to do so.

Nonprofit 287

Nonprofit Pharmaceutical Budgeting Manufacturing 287

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” January 24, 2015) The post Round Trip appeared first on The Big Picture. Forecasting Folly : Did you get sucked into the endless predictions of doom and gloom ? Never forget: Forecasts are marketing.

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

The Big Picture

APRIL 26, 2024

” We discuss how his unusual career developed, with his covering both Investment strategy AND economic analysis. She served as the Chief Revenue Officer at Microsoft, COO, and Chief Marketing Officer at SoFi (2015-2019), Most recently, she was President of Honey, where she orchestrated the sale of to Paypal for $4 billion.

Asset Allocation 173

Asset Allocation Advertising Engineering Media 173

The Big Picture

MARCH 22, 2024

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Sir Angus Deaton , 2015 Nobel Laureate “ for his analysis of consumption, poverty & welfare.” His latest book is “ Economics in America: an immigrant economist explores the land of inequality.”

Investing 182

Investing Investments Economics Management 182

The Big Picture

MARCH 30, 2024

New York Times ) • An Influential Economics Forum Has a Troubling Surplus of Trolls : EJMR, an online discussion board for economists, is rife with misogyny and racism, revealing a very dark side of the profession. His latest book is “ Economics in America: an immigrant economist explores the land of inequality.”

Commission 182

Commission Economics 182

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% The "Art of the Soft Landing" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation. 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 198

Economy Sales Economics Investing 198

Brown Advisory

JULY 16, 2015

2015 BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY ANNUAL SHAREHOLDER MEETING. Thu, 07/16/2015 - 15:53. The 2015 annual meeting celebrated the 50th anniversary of Warren Buffett taking control of Berkshire Hathaway and it drew a record crowd of over 40,000.

Ethics 52

Ethics Communication Insurance Investing 52

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2015 62.7% -0.1 2015 62.7% -0.1 2015 62.7% -0.1 in November 2022.

Economics 170

Economics Sales Investing Investments 170

Brown Advisory

JUNE 3, 2015

The Advisory | June 2015. Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:14. The economic expansion is weak and inflation is still below the central bank’s 2% target. equity market: A comparatively quick interest rate increase counteracts the benefit from stronger economic growth, impairing profitability and valuations. Shifting Gears.

Valuation 52

Valuation Economy Banking Economics 52

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital If I told you what the economic releases for GDP and NFP were for the next 12 months, do you think it would help your trading? It’s a recognition that much of what we consider at any given time should be thought of in terms of probabilities, not binary yes or no outcomes. These created that Aha!

Investing 345

Investing Investments Economy Portfolio 345

The Irrelevant Investor

FEBRUARY 2, 2019

We bought our apartment in December 2015 and in a few weeks we'll be moving out. Last week I was going through the economics of owning my home and I wanted to share them with you. The post The Economics of Owning a Home appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor. We did not plan on leaving so soon, but hey, that's life.

Economics 52

Economics Taxes Numbers Insurance 52

Discipline Funds

MAY 16, 2023

Retail sales and industrial production have a strong correlation with weak economic growth and both came in unusually weak last month. The 2015 false alarm came during the global economic recession when US growth did not meet the criteria for “recession” despite 1%ish growth. And vice versa.

Economy 97

Economy Economics Retail Sales 97

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2023

April 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded in April for the fourth consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.9 Looking back beyond the past few months, this month the index has reflected the fastest supplier delivery performance since December 2015, when it registered 48.5

Economics 100

Economics Management Economy 100

Darrow Wealth Management

MARCH 3, 2025

Between 2015 and Q3 2024, the correlation between stocks and bonds was.32 As economic conditions and income needs change, so too will your asset allocation. The choice between stocks and bonds depends on their individual circumstances, such as risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial goals. 32 according to data from J.P.

Risk Tolerance 60

Risk Tolerance Asset Allocation Assets Portfolio 60

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

2023 was supposed to be China’s economic comeback year. It is also not shocking that China is reducing the release of lots of public economic data. Remember the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2015 capital outflow scare? And now the world’s 2nd largest economy is experiencing a fall after the covid lockdown recovery.

Economy 72

Economy Manufacturing Economics Investing 72

Validea

MARCH 13, 2025

Low Debt Levels (Long-Term Debt Net Current Assets) Limiting debt helps safeguard a companys financial health, especially during economic downturns. The worst years include 2008 ( -27.2% ), 2018 ( -22.6% ), and 2015 ( -22.1% ). However, like many value strategies, it has also faced challenging periods.

Valuation 52

Valuation Investing Investments Portfolio 52

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

SEPTEMBER 30, 2022

Looking into the Flexible CPI, particularly in 2015, the main driver of deflationary pressures was energy. In a very uncertain economic picture, one thing is clear – significantly more recessionary headwinds are present than 12 months ago, and the Fed has the unenviable position of trying to navigate a soft landing.

Financial Advisor 98

Financial Advisor Food Fee Only Economics 98

Carson Wealth

JULY 27, 2022

The decline in the equity market pushed valuations down to levels in line with the period between 2015 and 2020. Virus variants: Will virus mutations undo the economic recovery? Regardless of the short-term economic trend, it’s rational to have faith in a system that has worked so well for long-term investors. . .

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 98

Advisor Perspectives

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Over 10,000 advisors became RIAs between 2015 and 2020 alone. Freedom, control, and economic advantages are the key reasons for the impressive growth of the independent Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) channel over the years. Ever wonder why?

Investment Advisor 52

Investment Advisor Numbers Economics Investments 52

Validea

OCTOBER 19, 2022

The last time gold had two consecutive years of negative returns was 2014 and 2015. Perhaps that pattern will hold in 2023 and 2024 and gold holders will be better rewarded, even if inflation subsides and the economic environment improves. Tool: [link]. The yellow metal then saw two positive years.

Investing 128

Investing Investments Valuation Portfolio 128

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 12, 2024

The late week rebound was supported by better economic data, including some good jobs-related numbers. But as the week progressed things calmed down and better economic data showed fears of a recession were once again overblown. In 2011 there was the US debt downgrade, and in 2015 China’s surprise devaluation of its currency.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Numbers Economy 95

The Irrelevant Investor

MARCH 3, 2016

If you played this game at the end of 2015, some of the names you might have picked to underperform are in fact the best performers year to date. All three of these companies were down in 2015 and are a mile away from their all-time highs (60%, 42%, and 82% respectively). The answer is probably not. Heebner was a genius who, on Jan.

Economics 52

Economics Investing Investments Management 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 23, 2022

Outside of the onset of the pandemic, July levels were the lowest since late 2015 when the real estate market was. At this rate, home sales will likely continue to slow and residential investment could turn out to be a drag on Q3 economic growth. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Sales Economy 98

The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2022

ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. ADMATI: And I had never taken an economics course before that. But when I got to Yale, my advisor said, why don’t u take microeconomics and take mathematical economics and take some economics.

Banking 204

Banking Government Insurance Taxes 204

Clever Girl Finance

OCTOBER 7, 2022

Whether it’s IT support, cell phone troubleshooting, computer repair, or building information systems, technology companies don’t seem to be as affected by the economic downturn. Security guards, ambulance drivers, firefighters, and law enforcement officers are more often in need during economic downturns. Public safety workers.

Healthcare 98

Healthcare Education Transportation Medical 98

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

In a world increasingly enamored of "strategic beta" and, more recently, "smart beta" solutions, investors believe they can manage portfolios vis-à-vis these types of market risk factors (Mainie, 2015). Can we also generate predictable utility from managing portfolios around an "ESG factor?"

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Investing Investments Management 52

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

In a world increasingly enamored of "strategic beta" and, more recently, "smart beta" solutions, investors believe they can manage portfolios vis-à-vis these types of market risk factors (Mainie, 2015). Can we also generate predictable utility from managing portfolios around an "ESG factor?"

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Investing Investments Management 52

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 12, 2023

Let’s look back in time and see how Nifty got to where it is today, from when it started in 1996 to reach 20,000 points, and how it dealt with different economic challenges: 1996 – Birth of Nifty50 The Nifty 50 index was launched on April 22, 1996, at 1,107 points, with a base value of 1,000 counted from November 3, 1995.

Numbers 59

Numbers Economy Economics Government 59

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 22, 2024

Now India is at the forefront of the economic boom. They have been registered with the NHB from 2015. As Housing market still remains a growing market due to various economic factors. To afford a house for individuals they approach housing finance companies for funds to buy a property, construction, or repairs.

Assets 96

Assets Portfolio Retail Planning 96

Brown Advisory

APRIL 21, 2023

Priyanka Agnihotri ( Sustainable International Leaders ) watches macroeconomic data points closely in an effort to understand where we are in a particular economic cycle. However, the strategy primarily focuses on business quality, and she seeks to invest in companies that she believes can hold up well under a range of economic scenarios.

Portfolio Management 98

Portfolio Management Portfolio Banking Management 98

The Irrelevant Investor

APRIL 6, 2021

He wrote: The economic revolution of 1870 to 1970 was unique in human history, unrepeatable because so many of its achievements could only happen once. The Wall Street Journal reports: In 2015 he had predicted productivity growth of only 1.5% Electric vehicles are cool, but cars changed the world. a year over the next 25 years.

Financial Planning 52

Financial Planning Economics Portfolio Investing 52