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Five High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

Calculated Risk

This graph shows weekly turnstile entries since 2015. . -- New York City Subway Usage -- Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR). This graph is from Todd W Schneider. Currently traffic is less than half of normal. This data is through Friday, July 29th.

Economy 360
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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 298
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“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition

The Big Picture

and other big firms sent out their calls for 2024, a consensus took shape: After surging more than 20% as artificial intelligence breakthroughs unleashed a tech-stock boom and the economy kept defying the doomsayers, the S&P 500 Index would likely scratch out only a modest gain. So as strategists at Bank of America Corp.,

Banking 345
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Question #1 for 2023: How much will the economy grow in 2023? Will there be a recession in 2023?

Calculated Risk

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. Or will the economy lose jobs? 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 278
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Five High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

Calculated Risk

This graph shows weekly turnstile entries since 2015. . -- New York City Subway Usage -- Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR). This graph is from Todd W Schneider. Currently traffic is less than half of normal. This data is through Friday, July 22nd.

Economy 246
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"Short Memories"

Calculated Risk

But for the economy and policy, short memories are a negative. And once again the riches will flow, until the economy suffers. Politicians take advantage of this collective forgetfulness and act up in odd years - something everyone should be aware of as we head into 2015 ( edit: now 2023 ) (I expect some episodes of DC craziness).

Budgeting 277
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Question #1 for 2024: How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024?

Calculated Risk

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 200