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“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition

The Big Picture

Not only do many investors pay attention to this guesswork, but some change their portfolios in response to them. This is especially true for those made by analysts who are not working to provide you with good investing advice but rather are hoping to drum up business for secondaries and IPOs. This has proven to be an unproductive strategy.

Banking 345
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Why Is the Fed Always Late to the Party?

The Big Picture

If only the Fed didn’t do X, our portfolio would have been much better” seems to be a terrible approach to managing assets for clients. 2010s : Remained on emergency footing post GFC for far too long – left rates at 0 until December 2015. I am not a Fed hater or part of the crew that wants to “End the Fed.”

Banking 336
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History of Black Monday

The Big Picture

Portfolio Insurance : Created a vicious feedback loop and added to downward pressure; 3. October 19, 2015). We can trace lots of today’s market structure to that event, and the changes it wrought subsequently. Consensus over the ensuing years has focused on several key drivers: 1. Overheated market : +42.5%

Insurance 360
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How Sequence-Of-Inflation Risk Impacts Retirees Beyond Just Sequences Of Returns

Nerd's Eye View

And when its variability is not accounted for, the quality and resilience of the advice in a client's financial plan can suffer, especially for those with lower portfolio returns and higher probability-of-success expectations.

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Inflation Is A Risk In Retirement, But Most Planning Technology Doesn’t Treat It That Way

Nerd's Eye View

And when its variability is not accounted for, the quality and resilience of the advice in a client's financial plan can suffer, especially for those with lower portfolio returns and higher probability-of-success expectations.

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Monthly NFPs Are Rounding Errors

The Big Picture

Don’t have one] (August 2nd, 2013) NFP: Pay No Attention to the Statistician Behind the Curtains (January 10, 2014) Don’t Suffer From Denominator Blindness (October 14, 2015) _ 1: All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number of U.S. This is not a popular opinion.

Numbers 264
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What Does the Relative Performance of Equal Weight S&P500 Mean?

The Big Picture

Desmond loved to ask professional portfolio managers “What percentage of stocks would you expect would be making new highs at the top day of the bull market when the Dow Jones was making its absolute high?” He noted that markets get increasingly narrow by cap size (capitalization) as longer secular bull markets approach their ends.