The Big Picture

JULY 28, 2022

Cherry Picking Your Favorite GDP Forecast (May 18, 2016). Why Recessions Matter to Investors (July 11, 2022). Too Late to Sell, Too Early to Buy… (June 16, 2022). GDP Update: -52.8% (June 2, 2020). Note the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow got the direction right but the magnitude wrong. appeared first on The Big Picture.

Government 299

Government Economy Economics Marketing 299

The Big Picture

MAY 17, 2023

Why the Apple Store Will Fail (May 20, 2021) Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016) How News Looks When Its Old (October 29, 2021) Predictions and Forecasts _ 1. October 26, 2022) Gradually, Then Suddenly (October 1, 2021). Because the CPI swing is so large, it compresses expectations) makes the expectations portion appear compressed 2.

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 26, 2022

Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016). Previously : Don’t Read This Blog Post! May 18, 2022). Gradually, Then Suddenly (October 1, 2021). Why the Apple Store Will Fail (May 20, 2021). How News Looks When Its Old (October 29, 2021). Predictions and Forecasts. Source : The Next Billion. by Bruce Upbin. Forbes, Oct 26, 2007.

Economy 364

Economy Marketing Marketing 364

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

The temptation to respond to every economic shift every new data point each new change in probabilities is how people end up chopping themselves up with small costs that are accruing into larger ones.

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 10, 2023

The list appears to be mostly (but not exclusively) behavioral finance types; here is the short-list of laurates, plus a few related columns of Nobel Winners: Danny Kahneman on Noise (May 15, 2021) Paul Krugman on Zombie Ideas (February 15, 2020) Gene Fama (with David Booth) on Efficient Markets (November 9, 2019) Michael Spence, on the Dynamics of (..)

Investing 147

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 147

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016). It is tremendously humbling to recognize how little we actually know and how easy it is to misunderstand any complex system — be it politics, markets, or just the world around us… See also : Blueprint for the Global Village (This View Of Life, Sep 4, 2014). August 9, 2022).

Management 317

Management Marketing Marketing 317

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 26, 2024

Previously : Say it with me: “Nobody Knows Anything” (May 5, 2016) Nobody Knows Anything, John Wick edition (September 6, 2023) Nobody Knows Anything (Full archive) Eyes Wide Open: The Beatles and Their Critics. Source: Early Criticism of The Beatles , Steve Silverman February 11, 2016 7.

Numbers 334

Numbers Communication Media Investments 334

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 2, 2023

grist.org) Anti-Asian hate crimes have been rising since 2016. (wsj.com) Policy States that reject expanded Medicaid funding show increased stress on hospitals. nytimes.com) How the natural gas industry cozies up to state regulators. econbrowser.com) Publishers really don't want public libraries to have easier access to e-books.

Financial Advising 240

Financial Advising Banking Economy Insurance 240

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Jane Street Trading managed to figure out state-by-state results in the 2016 presidential election minutes before the major cable channels did. -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital If I told you what the economic releases for GDP and NFP were for the next 12 months, do you think it would help your trading? These created that Aha!

Investing 345

Investing Investments Economy Portfolio 345

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

” Here are the June 2016 dot plots: Fast forward to September 2021, where the Fed imagined 2023 fund rates to be around 1%: Now, March 2022 dots imagined a year later we’d be about 3%: Last, the current September 2023 Dot Plot, which I guess is comforting(?)

Economics 325

Economics Financial Market Marketing Marketing 325

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 21, 2023

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that in a settlement with the SEC, robo-advisor platform Betterment agreed to pay a $9 million penalty for allegedly misstating the frequency that its automated tax-loss harvesting system was scanning some client accounts between (..)

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Advertising Taxes Clients 246

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

Take all of these with a grain of salt… Previously : GDP Update: -52.8% (June 2, 2020) Cherry Picking Your Favorite GDP Forecast (May 18, 2016) Atlanta Fed GDPNow for 2016 Q2 (LOL) (May 18, 2016) Sources : NY Fed NowCast Atlanta Fed GDP Now Introducing the New York Fed Staff Nowcast NY Fed, April 12, 2016 GDPNow: A Model for GDP ‘Nowcasting’ (..)

Banking 147

Banking Economics Retail Economy 147

The Big Picture

MARCH 9, 2023

economist at Morgan Stanley August 19, 2017 Dana Telsey of TAG Retail Group January 7, 2017 Bethany McLean on Enron and Wall Street’s PR Machine March 22, 2016 J.P. MiB: Women in Finance Dominique Mielle, Canyon Capital ( coming March 24, 2023) Maria Vassalou, Goldman Sachs Asset Management March 4, 2023 Jennifer Grancio, Engine No.

Wealth Management 162

Wealth Management Management Engineering Investing 162

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Treasury Bond (May 19, 2016) Last Call for 50-Year Treasury Bonds (March 16, 2017) Deficit Spending Should Be Counter-Cyclical Not Pro-Cyclical (August 28, 2017) Can We Please Have an Honest Debate About Tax Policy? This will be looked at as the greatest missed opportunity of our lifetimes.

Government 334

Government Economics Taxes Budgeting 334

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

Consider these columns going back to 2013 pointing out the foolishness of tax-payer subsidized corporate welfare queens (2013), and why median wages were rising ( 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2018 , 2019 ). Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy. Workers upskilled and launched new businesses. The balance of power had shifted.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

A Wealth of Common Sense

JULY 12, 2024

Charley Ellis wrote a great book about the index fund revolution back in 2016. One of my favorite parts of the book is where Ellis looks at how Wall Street has changed in the past 50 years: MBAs were uncommon. PhDs were never seen. Commissions still averaged 40 cents a share. All trading was paper based.

Certification 144

Certification Commission Marketing Marketing 144

Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 18, 2023

Accordingly, just as I did last year , and in 2021 , 2020 , 2019 , 2018 , 2017 , 2016 , 2015 , and 2014 , I've compiled for you this Highlights List of our top 2 2 articles in 2023 that you might have missed , along with a few of our most popular episodes of "Kitces & Carl" and the "Financial Advisor Success" podcasts.

Financial Advisor 246

Financial Advisor Numbers 246

A Wealth of Common Sense

FEBRUARY 27, 2024

1 Here are the new highs by year since 2015: 2015: 10 2016: 1. By my count there have already been a baker’s dozen in 2024 alone.1

Investing 145

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 145

The Big Picture

AUGUST 20, 2022

The Global Magnitsky Act of 2016 authorizes the U.S. Hermitage Capital was raided; Browder’s attorney, Sergie Magnitsky , was arrested, jailed, tortured, and then murdered in police custody. Browder sought justice for this violent crime, eventually driving the United States and 30 other countries to pass the Magnitsky Act.

Government 290

Government Assets Media Management 290

The Big Picture

JULY 5, 2023

The charts above show that they shouldn’t… Previously : Inflation Expectations Are Useless (May 17, 2023) Transitory Is Taking Longer than Expected (February 10, 2022) Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016) How News Looks When Its Old (October 29, 2021) Predictions and Forecasts Nobody Knows Anything Source : Good News for the Fed: Shoppers See Lower (..)

Economy 306

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 306

The Big Picture

MAY 27, 2023

Bryant was named 2016 American Banker ‘Innovator of the Year,’ He has been an advisor to the last three sitting U.S. The firm focuses on providing financial illiteracy as a way to address systemic issues for under-served individuals and small businesses. He is also the CEO of Bryant Group Ventures, and The Promise Homes Company.

Transportation 264

Transportation Economics Investing Investments 264

The Big Picture

MAY 28, 2023

Bryant was named 2016 American Banker ‘Innovator of the Year,’ He has been an advisor to the last three sitting U.S. The firm focuses on providing financial illiteracy as a way to address systemic issues for under-served individuals and small businesses. He is also the CEO of Bryant Group Ventures, and The Promise Homes Company.

Accounting 299

Accounting Medical Numbers Assets 299

Nerd's Eye View

MAY 15, 2024

Specifically, the DoL's new Retirement Security Rule defines an "investment advice fiduciary" as anyone who makes an investment recommendation to a retirement investor which is provided for a fee or other compensation (e.g.,

Retirement 246

Retirement Commission Banking Financial Advising 246

Nerd's Eye View

JUNE 10, 2024

It quickly became a perennial favorite on Nerd's Eye View, and so I've updated it every year, with new lists of books in 2014 , 2015 , 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2019 , 2020 , 2021 , 2022 , and a fresh round last year in 2023.

Financial Advisor 245

Financial Advisor Financial Planner Clients Communication 245

The Big Picture

MAY 15, 2023

Why the Apple Store Will Fail (May 20, 2021) Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016) How News Looks When Its Old (October 29, 2021) Predictions and Forecasts _ 1. Source : There’s Something About Cisco By Andy Serwer, Irene Gashurov, Angela Key FORTUNE Magazine, May 15, 2000 Mirror (password: CSCO) Previously : Can Anyone Catch Nokia?

Marketing 333

Marketing Marketing Management 333

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2023

Businessweek ) see also How Nvidia Became ChatGPT’s Brain and Joined the $1 Trillion Club : CEO Jensen Huang’s big bet on AI went from hand-delivering processors to Elon Musk and Sam Altman in 2016 to joining today’s alpha pack of Silicon Valley. Meet Wikipedia’s Architects : The world wide web of Wikipedia, as told by its editors.

Medicine 264

Medicine Communication Marketing Marketing 264

The Big Picture

MAY 25, 2023

Bryant was named 2016 American Banker ‘Innovator of the Year,’ He has been an advisor to the last three sitting U.S. The firm focuses on providing financial illiteracy as a way to address systemic issues for under-served individuals and small businesses. He is also the CEO of Bryant Group Ventures, and The Promise Homes Company.

Distribution 263

Distribution Government Media Economy 263

The Big Picture

MAY 26, 2023

Bryant was named 2016 American Banker ‘Innovator of the Year,’ He has been an advisor to the last three sitting U.S. The firm focuses on providing financial illiteracy as a way to address systemic issues for under-served individuals and small businesses. He is also the CEO of Bryant Group Ventures, and The Promise Homes Company.

Startup 263

Startup Manufacturing Accounting Investing 263

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

November 4, 2016). Bull Markets & P/E Multiple Expansion (June 22, 2018). Bull Markets Can’t Start Until Bear Markets End (March 9, 2018). Redefining Bull and Bear Markets (August 14, 2017). Are We in A Secular Bull Market? Bull & Bear Markets. _. that viewpoint was affirmed by the subsequent move in 2020 and 2021.

Economy 328

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 328

The Big Picture

JANUARY 14, 2023

A similar 2016 survey that Forbes conducted found that about 73% of the deals in the first seven seasons either changed or fell through. An analysis of 112 businesses offered deals on seasons 8 through 13 of the show reveals that roughly half those deals never close and another 15% end up with different terms once the cameras are turned off.

Engineering 275

Engineering Distribution Food Media 275

The Big Picture

MARCH 22, 2024

He was Knighted in 2016, and is a dual citizen of Great Britain and United States. Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Sir Angus Deaton , 2015 Nobel Laureate “ for his analysis of consumption, poverty & welfare.”

Investing 182

Investing Investments Economics Management 182

The Big Picture

APRIL 11, 2024

April 27, 2016) Active vs Passive Management (Archives) Vanguard Group (Archives) The post A Short History of Stocks appeared first on The Big Picture. More to come later… Previously : Where Has the Retail Investor Gone?

Commission 351

Commission Taxes Management Electronics 351

Nerd's Eye View

JUNE 12, 2023

It quickly became a perennial favorite on Nerd's Eye View, and so I've updated it every year, with new lists of books in 2014 , 2015 , 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2019 , 2020 , 2021 , and a fresh round last year in 2022.

Financial Advisor 246

Financial Advisor Financial Planner Professional Services Clients 246

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 13, 2022

Blockchain Effort Cancelled Australia had a blockchain prototype effort to record stock market settlement but abandoned it.

Electronics 189

Electronics Distribution Government Assets 189

Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 26, 2022

Accordingly, just as I did last year, and in 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, and 2014, I've compiled for you this Highlights List of our top 20 articles in 2022 that you might have missed , along with a few of our most popular episodes of ‘Kitces & Carl’ and the ‘Financial Advisor Success’ podcasts.

Financial Advisor 244

Financial Advisor Financial Advice Estate Planning Planning 244

A Wealth of Common Sense

FEBRUARY 9, 2023

A reader asks: I’ve just come across your blog post from 2016, “Deconstructing 30-Year Stock Market Returns.” ” Thank you for that! It was just about exactly what I was looking for. I wonder if you have updated your finding since then? Also, have you run the analysis for other time periods?

Marketing 136

Marketing Marketing 136

Wealth Management

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

Doris Meister, who has led Wilmington since 2016, will be leaving her role by the end of May.

Wealth Management 110

Wealth Management Management 110