Calculated Risk

AUGUST 19, 2022

Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago ), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast.

Retail 359

Retail 359

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 5, 2023

Sixty-nine new ETFs came to market last month, one of the busiest since at least 2016.

Marketing 236

Marketing Marketing 236

Wealth Management

MAY 16, 2023

Wells Fargo was accused of making misleading statements about its compliance with federal consent orders following the 2016 scandal involving the opening of unauthorized customer accounts.

Compliance 235

Compliance Accounting 235

Calculated Risk

JUNE 18, 2023

Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted several years ago ), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast.

Retail 347

Retail 347

The Big Picture

AUGUST 14, 2023

Previously : Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016) Can Anyone Catch Nokia?

246

246

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

Previously : MiB: Danny Kahneman on Heuristics, Biases & Cognition (August 9, 2016) Tversky and Kahneman Changed How We Think (December 5, 2016) Some MIB background, Danny Kahneman Interview (February 15, 2017) The post Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy? appeared first on The Big Picture.

Manufacturing 340

Manufacturing Economy Economics Marketing 340

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2023

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - is tracking pre-pandemic levels. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through June 22nd.

Transportation 352

Transportation Numbers Sales 352

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 3rd.

Economy 343

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 343

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Change in Payroll Jobs per Year (000s) Total, Nonfarm Private Public 1997 3,406 3,211 195 1998 3,048 2,735 313 1999 3,181 2,720 461 2000 1,938 1,674 264 2001 -1,733 -2,284 551 2002 -515 -748 233 2003 125 167 -42 2004 2,038 1,891 147 2005 2,528 2,342 186 2006 2,092 1,883 209 2007 1,145 857 288 2008 -3,549 -3,729 180 2009 -5,041 -4,967 -74 2010 1,027 (..)

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2022

Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 4th. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.

Economy 351

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 351

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

Travel has picked up recently, compared to 2019, perhaps due to the timing of Labor Day. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through September 8th.

Economy 363

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 363

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

 In 2016, I wrote about the novelist and screenwriter William Goldman, and his delightful book, “ Adventures in the Screen Trade.” John Wick is yet another reminder about just how little any of us know about what might happen in the future… Previously : Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016) Can Anyone Catch Nokia?

Distribution 306

Distribution Retirement Sales 306

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

Travel has picked up recently compared to 2019. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - had been moving sideways over the last several months, off about 10% from 2019.

Economy 345

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 345

The Big Picture

AUGUST 26, 2022

Previously : Bill Miller: Closet Indexers Are Killing Active Investing (October 28, 2016). Do No Harm (March 20, 2016). See also : Backstage Wall Street: An Insider’s Guide to Knowing Who to Trust, Who to Run From, and How to Maximize Your Investments. First Rule of Running Other Peoples’ Money? Fiduciary Rule.

Accounting 353

Accounting Government Assets Management 353

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2022

Travel has picked up recently, compared to 2019, perhaps due to the timing of Labor Day. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through September 1st.

Economy 351

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 351

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - is tracking above pre-pandemic levels. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through September 21st.

Transportation 321

Transportation Numbers Sales 321

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2022

In total, non-housing balances grew by $103 billion, the largest increase seen since 2016. Other balances–which includes retail cards and other consumer loans –increased by a robust $25 billion. Mortgage originations slightly declined in the second quarter and stood at $758 billion.

Retail 363

Retail Banking Accounting 363

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

The CLL was at $417,000 from 2006 through 2016, and only increased slightly in 2017 as the house price index caught back up to the previous high reached during the housing bubble. A brief excerpt: The Official Limits will be released On Tuesday, November 29th. This graph shows the CLL since 1979.

Sales 275

Sales 275

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2022

Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through July 28th. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.

Economy 360

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 360

NAIFA Advisor Today

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

Previously, he served terms on the FSP National Board of Directors from 2011 through 2016. McGlothlin served on the Society of FSP National Executive Committee from 2018 to 2021 and was National President in 2020-2021. He was President and Director of the Society of FSP Central Indiana Chapter from 2002 through 2005.

Ethics 138

Ethics Retirement Planning Education CFP 138

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 3, 2022

The CLL was unchanged from 2006 though 2016. For Los Angeles County, the CLL is $970,800 for one-unit properties (50% higher than the baseline CLL). This graph shows the CLL since 1979. The adjustment is based on the House Price Index value in Q3 divided by Q3 in the prior year. The FHFA index is a repeat sales index, similar to Case-Shiller.

Insurance 279

Insurance Numbers Sales 279

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - is back to pre-pandemic levels. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021, Orange is 2022 and Red is 2023.

Transportation 243

Transportation Numbers Sales 243

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 10, 2023

But as market trends changed (with the performance of this asset class falling behind large-cap stocks during the 2010s) and clients entered retirement (often consolidating their investment management with 1 advisor), Eliot Rose started losing clients, eventually becoming unprofitable in 2016, the year Jason became president of the firm.

Financial Planning 246

Financial Planning Retirement Planning Clients 246

The Big Picture

JUNE 30, 2023

June 29, 2023) Groping for a Bottom (October 14, 2022) Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016) Too Many Bears (May 3, 2022) Capitulation Playbook (May 19, 2022) Nobody Knows Anything Predictions and Forecasts _ 1. . ~~~ Enjoy the holiday weekend, and stay safe out there… Previously : What Do You Believe?

Numbers 325

Numbers Investing Investments Management 325

Wealth Management

APRIL 13, 2023

Mack led Wells Fargo Advisors from 2014 until mid-2016.

Retirement 169

Retirement 169

Wealth Management

JUNE 16, 2023

The SEC said on Friday that Pimco failed to disclose key information to investors about how swaps could impact its PIMCO Global StocksPLUS & Income Fund between 2014 and 2016.

175

175

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 18th. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.

Economy 297

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 297

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2023

intermodal volume in 2022 was the sixth most ever, but also the lowest since 2016. The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2020, 2021 and 2022: (using intermodal or shipping containers): U.S. intermodal originations in 2022 were 13.45 In 2022, containers accounted 93.7%

Accounting 234

Accounting 234

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago ), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast.

Retail 246

Retail 246

The Big Picture

JULY 28, 2022

Cherry Picking Your Favorite GDP Forecast (May 18, 2016). Why Recessions Matter to Investors (July 11, 2022). Too Late to Sell, Too Early to Buy… (June 16, 2022). GDP Update: -52.8% (June 2, 2020). Note the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow got the direction right but the magnitude wrong. appeared first on The Big Picture.

Government 299

Government Economy Economics Marketing 299

Calculated Risk

APRIL 19, 2023

Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted several years ago ), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast.

Retail 246

Retail 246

Calculated Risk

MARCH 17, 2023

Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted several years ago ), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast.

Retail 246

Retail 246

Calculated Risk

MAY 19, 2023

Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted several years ago ), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast.

Retail 241

Retail 241

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - seems to be picking up a little, but overall, still below 2019 levels. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 265

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 265

The Big Picture

MAY 17, 2023

Why the Apple Store Will Fail (May 20, 2021) Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016) How News Looks When Its Old (October 29, 2021) Predictions and Forecasts _ 1. October 26, 2022) Gradually, Then Suddenly (October 1, 2021). Because the CPI swing is so large, it compresses expectations) makes the expectations portion appear compressed 2.

328

328

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 27th.

Economy 264

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 264

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 10, 2023

The list appears to be mostly (but not exclusively) behavioral finance types; here is the short-list of laurates, plus a few related columns of Nobel Winners: Danny Kahneman on Noise (May 15, 2021) Paul Krugman on Zombie Ideas (February 15, 2020) Gene Fama (with David Booth) on Efficient Markets (November 9, 2019) Michael Spence, on the Dynamics of (..)

Investments 147

Investments Investing Marketing Marketing 147