The Big Picture

OCTOBER 23, 2023

” That poor belief system has disadvantaged America — it has made us economically weaker, prevented the country from performing basic maintenance on its infrastructure, and generally made it a harsher place to live. Note that we undertook much of the work anyway (airports, electrical grid, roads, etc.),

Government 334

Government Economics Taxes Budgeting 334

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Rather than accept the volatility of month-to-month economic datapoints — NFP, Consumer Spending, Manufacturing, Inflation, etc. The temptation to respond to every economic shift every new data point each new change in probabilities is how people end up chopping themselves up with small costs that are accruing into larger ones.

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Advisor Perspectives

NOVEMBER 21, 2024

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in October to its lowest level since March 2016. The index fell 0.4% from the previous month to 99.5, marking its eighth consecutive monthly decline.

Economics 98

Economics 98

The Big Picture

JULY 28, 2022

.” Despite the robustness of the labor market and consumer spending during the first half of the year, this is the second consecutive quarter of real (Inflation-adjusted) economic contraction. Cherry Picking Your Favorite GDP Forecast (May 18, 2016). Nominal GDP is plus 7.8% What does this mean for investors?

Government 299

Government Economy Economics Marketing 299

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Barron’s ) • What China’s economic problems mean for the world : There is a saying that when the United States sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. Unemployment remains near historic lows even after the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes. What’s behind the job market’s resilience—and why it could last.

Economics 245

Economics Banking Accounting Media 245

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2016 62.7% 2016 62.7% 2016 62.7% in December, down 0.4 2009 64.6% -1.2

Economics 242

Economics Sales Investments Investing 242

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 16, 2022

History suggests that the Fed’s recognition of key market and economic indicators also is on an excessive lag. Then again in the 2020s, they remained on emergency footing post-Covid, despite broad evidence of economic recovery. Wealth Effect is a Bad Correlation Fantasy (April 25, 2016).

Economics 312

Economics Banking Marketing Marketing 312

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 2, 2023

grist.org) Anti-Asian hate crimes have been rising since 2016. unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (wsj.com) Policy States that reject expanded Medicaid funding show increased stress on hospitals. nytimes.com) How the natural gas industry cozies up to state regulators.

Financial Advising 240

Financial Advising Banking Economy Insurance 240

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. Prior to the pandemic, economic activity was mostly in the 2% range since 2010. 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 276

Economy Sales Economics Investing 276

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 4, 2023

But Bloomberg Economics sees risks ahead, from strikes to higher rates and oil prices. The yen then tumbled anew toward a record low of 150 to the dollar. Barron’s ) • Why a US Recession Is Still Likely — and Coming Soon : The government is staying open for now. Bloomberg ) see also A New Interest-Rate Regime Has Begun.

Economics 264

Economics Banking Government Investing 264

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

The Big Picture

JULY 5, 2023

What it does reveal is that the Federal Reserve is not current with the latest research on 1) What drives inflation; 2) The fallibility of surveys and polling data; 3) An updated understanding of behavioral economics and how human decision-making works.

Economy 306

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 306

The Big Picture

APRIL 24, 2023

They all have different sensitivities to economic factors like trade, inflation, commodities, and growth. ” A Secular Bull Market is an extended period of time (10-20 years) driven by broad economic shifts that create an environment conducive to increasing corporate revenue and earnings.

Economics 299

Economics Marketing Marketing Portfolio 299

The Big Picture

MAY 27, 2023

Cities welcome the economic boost,but locals complain they’re being priced out. Bryant was named 2016 American Banker ‘Innovator of the Year,’ He has been an advisor to the last three sitting U.S. ( Vanity Fair ) • The death of ownership : Companies are taking away your ability to actually own the stuff you buy. presidents.

Transportation 264

Transportation Economics Investments Investing 264

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

It uses (13 or so) inputs 1 to extrapolate a rough approximation of economic growth. The error range can be large, especially early in the quarter , or when an economic shock occurs, such as early in the 2020 Pandemic. The NY Fed subsequently added its version , as did other regional Fed banks.

Banking 147

Banking Economics Retail Economy 147

The Big Picture

MAY 25, 2023

Bryant was named 2016 American Banker ‘Innovator of the Year,’ He has been an advisor to the last three sitting U.S. More powerful influencers sell better-quality products, but pluralism in style mitigates market concentration by effectively differentiating consumer experience. presidents.

Distribution 263

Distribution Media Government Economy 263

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 23, 2023

He serves on the advisory board of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Panossian holds an MS degree in health services research from Stanford Medical School; a JD degree from Harvard Law School; and an MBA from Harvard Business School. Currently, he is Vice Chairman of IBM.

Management 182

Management Medical Portfolio Management Economics 182

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital If I told you what the economic releases for GDP and NFP were for the next 12 months, do you think it would help your trading? Jane Street Trading managed to figure out state-by-state results in the 2016 presidential election minutes before the major cable channels did. These created that Aha!

Investing 345

Investing Investments Economy Portfolio 345

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

This is supported generally by economic strength in the labor market, strong consumer spending, and record high corporate profits. November 4, 2016). The counterargument is the spike in inflation has changed the dynamic of the economy. Bull Markets & P/E Multiple Expansion (June 22, 2018). Are We in A Secular Bull Market?

Economy 328

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 328

The Big Picture

JUNE 2, 2023

Monthly NFP is likely the single most overrated economic data point in the US, while the intermediate term employment trend is the most underrated. What really matters is the series trend: Are we consistently creating jobs over time? Is that multi-month trend rising or falling?

Numbers 312

Numbers Valuation Retirement Economics 312

The Big Picture

MARCH 22, 2024

He was Knighted in 2016, and is a dual citizen of Great Britain and United States. His latest book is “ Economics in America: an immigrant economist explores the land of inequality.” His book “ Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism ” (co-written with his wife Ann Case) was a NYT best-seller.

Investing 182

Investing Investments Economics Management 182

The Big Picture

MARCH 30, 2024

New York Times ) • An Influential Economics Forum Has a Troubling Surplus of Trolls : EJMR, an online discussion board for economists, is rife with misogyny and racism, revealing a very dark side of the profession. He was Knighted in 2016, and is a dual citizen of Great Britain and United States. Glassholes need not apply. (

Commission 182

Commission Economics 182

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% The "Art of the Soft Landing" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation. 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 198

Economy Sales Economics Investing 198

The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2023

It is a “monthly measure of how unpredictable overall economic conditions are 1 month, 3 months, and 1 year ahead.” But “uncertainty” as that word is commonly used on Wall Street 1 seems to be correlated with concerns about faltering economic conditions and/or rising market volatility. And I am okay with that.

Distribution 246

Distribution Economics Communication Media 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2016 62.7% 2016 62.7% 2016 62.7% in November, up from 3.6% 2017 62.7%

Economics 170

Economics Sales Investing Investments 170

Brown Advisory

JUNE 23, 2016

NOW 2016 | Putin’s World achen Thu, 06/23/2016 - 10:27 On Feb. For instance, many Russians believe that the Soviet Union fell not because of economic decay and mismanagement, but because U.S. infiltration and espionage exploited weak leadership, Stent said at the NOW 2016 forum.

Economy 52

Economy Communication Clients Taxes 52

Brown Advisory

JUNE 23, 2016

NOW 2016 | Putin’s World. Thu, 06/23/2016 - 10:27. For instance, many Russians believe that the Soviet Union fell not because of economic decay and mismanagement, but because U.S. infiltration and espionage exploited weak leadership, Stent said at the NOW 2016 forum.

Economy 52

Economy Communication Clients Taxes 52

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 11, 2016

September 2016 Insights on Markets and Investments achen Mon, 09/12/2016 - 01:00 In this issue: Investors Facing Rising Risks Need Solid Defense, Savvy Offense Increasing political and economic risk during the past year has widened the range of possible positive and negative scenarios for financial markets.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Asset Allocation Marketing 52

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 11, 2016

September 2016 Insights on Markets and Investments. Mon, 09/12/2016 - 01:00. In this issue: Investors Facing Rising Risks Need Solid Defense, Savvy Offense Increasing political and economic risk during the past year has widened the range of possible positive and negative scenarios for financial markets.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Asset Allocation Marketing 52

Brown Advisory

MARCH 1, 2016

The Advisory | March 2016 Insights on Markets and Investments. Tue, 03/01/2016 - 11:37. So far in 2016, investors have encountered some of the worst market turbulence in many years. The key to weathering the volatility is staying true to a long-term investment plan. In this issue: Through the Storm.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 52

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 13, 2022

Blockchain Effort Cancelled Australia had a blockchain prototype effort to record stock market settlement but abandoned it.

Electronics 189

Electronics Distribution Government Assets 189

Brown Advisory

JUNE 16, 2016

Midyear Planning Tools for 2016. Thu, 06/16/2016 - 15:22. Yet despite a heavy dose of recent market volatility, the planning environment in 2016 is relatively stable. Yet despite a heavy dose of recent market volatility, the planning environment in 2016 is relatively stable. Economic growth in the U.S.

Planning 52

Planning Taxes Assets Clients 52

Brown Advisory

JUNE 23, 2016

NOW 2016 | China’s Age of Ambition achen Thu, 06/23/2016 - 10:27 Friction will probably persist in Sino-U.S. China’s president, according to Osnos, aims to overcome three challenges to stability: Economic stagnation. We are in an era of strategic anxiety with China,” Osnos said in a NOW presentation.

Communication 52

Communication Clients Taxes Economy 52

Brown Advisory

JUNE 23, 2016

NOW 2016 | China’s Age of Ambition. Thu, 06/23/2016 - 10:27. China’s president, according to Osnos, aims to overcome three challenges to stability: Economic stagnation. Friction will probably persist in Sino-U.S. We are in an era of strategic anxiety with China,” Osnos said in a NOW presentation.

Communication 52

Communication Clients Taxes Economy 52

Brown Advisory

JUNE 23, 2016

Global economic growth would slow, harming industrialized as well as developing countries.

Government 52

Government Communication Clients Economy 52

Brown Advisory

JUNE 23, 2016

NOW 2016 | The Reality of Climate Change. Thu, 06/23/2016 - 10:27. Global economic growth would slow, harming industrialized as well as developing countries.

Government 52

Government Communication Clients Economy 52

Brown Advisory

JUNE 23, 2016

NOW 2016 | Energy, Money and the New World Economy achen Thu, 06/23/2016 - 10:27 The benefits to the U.S. Over time, such flexibility will help keep prices relatively low or moderate, though with a potential for volatility, Yergin predicted at the NOW 2016 conference. economy since 2008. Thanks to shale, the U.S.

Economy 52

Economy Communication Clients Taxes 52