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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

2020: Covid : With the economy closed, people locked down, and local businesses crashing, many were expecting a replay of the previous market crash. The latest plot line was simply the animal spirits have been awoken and they have run amok and that’s how we have avoided an economic contraction.

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GDP = -0.9%

The Big Picture

Following a negative GDP print in the first quarter, a strong but inflation-racked economy expanded in the second quarter on a nominal basis, but contracted in real inflation-adjusted terms. Cherry Picking Your Favorite GDP Forecast (May 18, 2016). BEA reported “Real gross domestic product decreased at an annual rate of 0.9

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Sunday links: disregarding the facts

Abnormal Returns

nytimes.com) Regional banks are a linchpin for the economy. grist.org) Anti-Asian hate crimes have been rising since 2016. bloomberg.com) Economy Why we should be celebrating the current employment situation. unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

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Countertrend ?

The Big Picture

When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. The alternate periods of time are Secular Bear Markets: The economy is fraught with weakness, poor consumer spending, and negative job growth. November 4, 2016).

Economy 328
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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Almanac Trader ) • This Time Really Is Different for the Economy. Barron’s ) • What China’s economic problems mean for the world : There is a saying that when the United States sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout.

Economics 245
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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023. million jobs in 2023.

Economy 119
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10 Quotes That Shaped My Investment Philosophy

The Big Picture

Along those lines, here are in chronological order, the thinkers who have helped shape how I view the world view, including how I philosophically think about the economy, markets, and investing. Hence, whatever your views are about the economy, markets, your portfolio, etc., 10 Quotes That Shaped My Investment Philosophy 1.

Investing 345