Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 18th. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.

Economy 297

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 297

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

and other big firms sent out their calls for 2024, a consensus took shape: After surging more than 20% as artificial intelligence breakthroughs unleashed a tech-stock boom and the economy kept defying the doomsayers, the S&P 500 Index would likely scratch out only a modest gain. So as strategists at Bank of America Corp.,

Banking 345

Banking Planning Economics Investing 345

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - seems to be picking up a little, but overall, still below 2019 levels. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 265

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 265

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 27th.

Economy 264

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 264

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 25th. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.

Economy 263

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 263

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

imports from China have been declining since 2016. reuters.com) Global The Russian economy is under increasing pressure. (bloomberg.com) You need a strategy to survive the commoditization of the asset management industry. philbak.substack.com) China The percentage of U.S. apolloacademy.com) China's marriage rate plunged in 2024.

Media 173

Media Economy Accounting Management 173

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 10th.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. Or will the economy lose jobs? 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investing 278

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - seems to be picking up a little, but overall, still below 2019 levels. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 244

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 244

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently - but still below pre-pandemic levels. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently - but still below pre-pandemic levels. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - had picked up towards the end of Summer, but is now, off about 10% from 2019 like earlier in the year. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 11th. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.

Economy 245

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 245

Calculated Risk

JULY 25, 2022

Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through July 21st. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently - but still below pre-pandemic levels. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 237

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 237

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently - but still below pre-pandemic levels. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 231

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 231

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently - but still below pre-pandemic levels. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 225

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 225

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 17th.

Economy 217

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 217

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

(Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - had picked up towards the end of Summer, but is now, off about 10% from 2019 like earlier in the year. -- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).

Economy 189

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 189

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

2020: Covid : With the economy closed, people locked down, and local businesses crashing, many were expecting a replay of the previous market crash. There was a steady drumbeat of worry, Complaining about the Fed’s interventions, financial repression, and the other shoe dropping. This was a money-losing set of narratives.

Manufacturing 340

Manufacturing Economy Economics Marketing 340

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 2, 2023

nytimes.com) Regional banks are a linchpin for the economy. grist.org) Anti-Asian hate crimes have been rising since 2016. bloomberg.com) Economy Why we should be celebrating the current employment situation. (humbledollar.com) AI is going to change just about every industry.

Financial Advising 240

Financial Advising Banking Economy Insurance 240

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. The alternate periods of time are Secular Bear Markets: The economy is fraught with weakness, poor consumer spending, and negative job growth. November 4, 2016).

Economy 328

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 328

The Big Picture

JULY 28, 2022

Following a negative GDP print in the first quarter, a strong but inflation-racked economy expanded in the second quarter on a nominal basis, but contracted in real inflation-adjusted terms. Cherry Picking Your Favorite GDP Forecast (May 18, 2016). BEA reported “Real gross domestic product decreased at an annual rate of 0.9

Government 299

Government Economy Economics Marketing 299

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Along those lines, here are in chronological order, the thinkers who have helped shape how I view the world view, including how I philosophically think about the economy, markets, and investing. Hence, whatever your views are about the economy, markets, your portfolio, etc., 10 Quotes That Shaped My Investment Philosophy 1.

Investing 345

Investing Investments Economy Portfolio 345

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 26, 2022

This often prevents us from understanding the long term life cycles of the economy, markets and companies. Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016). We have a hard time looking beyond the here and now, as we live at the intersection of the past and the future. Change is Constant : It is east to miss incremental shifts over time.

Economy 364

Economy Marketing Marketing 364

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

Consider these columns going back to 2013 pointing out the foolishness of tax-payer subsidized corporate welfare queens (2013), and why median wages were rising ( 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2018 , 2019 ). This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

The Big Picture

JULY 5, 2023

The other part is that the economy is just so different today than it was 50 years ago, that using a 1970s analog is a recipe for failure. Consider what occurred since the 1970s: Globalization increased, automation became widespread, and productivity increased dramatically.

Economy 306

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 306

The Big Picture

MAY 25, 2023

Wall Street Journal ) • A Model of Influencer Economy : With the rise of social media and streaming platforms, firms and brand-owners increasingly depend on influencers to attract consumers, who care about both common product quality and consumer-influencer interaction. presidents.

Distribution 263

Distribution Media Government Economy 263

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

I find these to be useful models but must constantly remind myself that they are merely rough approximations of the BEA GDP , which itself is a rough approximation of the US economy. The error range can be large, especially early in the quarter , or when an economic shock occurs, such as early in the 2020 Pandemic.

Banking 147

Banking Economics Retail Economy 147

Brown Advisory

JUNE 23, 2016

NOW 2016 | Energy, Money and the New World Economy achen Thu, 06/23/2016 - 10:27 The benefits to the U.S. economy since 2008. economy since 2008. Over time, such flexibility will help keep prices relatively low or moderate, though with a potential for volatility, Yergin predicted at the NOW 2016 conference.

Economy 52

Economy Communication Clients Taxes 52

Brown Advisory

JUNE 23, 2016

NOW 2016 | Energy, Money and the New World Economy. Thu, 06/23/2016 - 10:27. economy since 2008. economy since 2008. Over time, such flexibility will help keep prices relatively low or moderate, though with a potential for volatility, Yergin predicted at the NOW 2016 conference. The benefits to the U.S.

Economy 52

Economy Communication Clients Taxes 52

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Almanac Trader ) • This Time Really Is Different for the Economy. We use the term “Octoberphobia” to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout. Just Look at the Job Market’s Confounding Strength.

Economics 245

Economics Banking Accounting Media 245

The Big Picture

MARCH 9, 2023

In this space, Hedge funds lag finance, which in turn lags the broader economy. economist at Morgan Stanley August 19, 2017 Dana Telsey of TAG Retail Group January 7, 2017 Bethany McLean on Enron and Wall Street’s PR Machine March 22, 2016 J.P.

Wealth Management 162

Wealth Management Management Engineering Banking 162

Brown Advisory

JUNE 23, 2016

NOW 2016 | Putin’s World achen Thu, 06/23/2016 - 10:27 On Feb. Putin also distracted the public from the flagging Russian economy. infiltration and espionage exploited weak leadership, Stent said at the NOW 2016 forum. Putin’s approval rating surged 10% in February and March of 2014, to 71.6%.

Economy 52

Economy Communication Clients Taxes 52

Brown Advisory

JUNE 23, 2016

NOW 2016 | Putin’s World. Thu, 06/23/2016 - 10:27. Putin also distracted the public from the flagging Russian economy. infiltration and espionage exploited weak leadership, Stent said at the NOW 2016 forum. 27, 2014, unidentified troops, referred to as “little green men” in news reports, stormed the Crimean peninsula.

Economy 52

Economy Communication Clients Taxes 52