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Nobody Knows Anything, 2023 First Half Edition

The Big Picture

These numbers would make for a respectable year much less half that time. June 29, 2023) Groping for a Bottom (October 14, 2022) Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016) Too Many Bears (May 3, 2022) Capitulation Playbook (May 19, 2022) Nobody Knows Anything Predictions and Forecasts _ 1. Because almost nobody saw this rally coming.

Numbers 325
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Change Your Perspective

The Big Picture

Essentially, monthly Non-Farm Payrolls is the net difference between these two groups: The actual number is far smaller and less significant than gets played most publicly. The monthly number ( May 2023 = 339,000) is a tenth or so of the ~1.5% of the 159m total.

Numbers 312
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The Great Resignation Is Long Over

The Big Picture

Consider these columns going back to 2013 pointing out the foolishness of tax-payer subsidized corporate welfare queens (2013), and why median wages were rising ( 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2018 , 2019 ). By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 331
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10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture

The ALA documented an unparalleled number of reported book challenges in 2022, more than 2,500 unique titles, the highest number of attempted book bans since the ALA began tracking censorship data more than 20 years ago. ( American Prospect ) • Twitter Is a Far-Right Social Network It can no longer be denied. ( presidents.

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Nobody Knows Anything, FedWatch Edition

The Big Picture

Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests. Given that, you would imagine that investors would approach these future expectations of rate changes with a grain of salt. (I

Economics 363
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From Unprofitable To $115M AUM: Reinventing A 2nd Generation Advisory Business By Finding The Right Niche

Nerd's Eye View

But as market trends changed (with the performance of this asset class falling behind large-cap stocks during the 2010s) and clients entered retirement (often consolidating their investment management with 1 advisor), Eliot Rose started losing clients, eventually becoming unprofitable in 2016, the year Jason became president of the firm.

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Nobody Knows Anything, The Beatles edition

The Big Picture

In celebration of Abbey Road being released 55 years ago today (September 26, 1969), here is a short, Beatles-related excerpt from my upcoming book: “ How Not To Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth – and how to avoid them.” What was the 1960s equivalent of “ Okay, Boomer ”…?

Numbers 334