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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

If you believed these stories, and acted on them, your portfolio probably did poorly in markets over this era. What’s so fascinating about each of these eras is how a very coherent narrative storyline came together to explain things that are perhaps more random and unexplainable than we are comfortable with.

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Tales from the Dark Side

The Big Picture

Say what you will about Cathy Woods and ARKK, but a concentrated portfolio like hers makes more sense as a satellite to Vanguard’s Total Stock Market Index ETF (VTI) or the S&P 500 (SPY) versus this unholy mess of high-cost high turnover SMA. Previously : Bill Miller: Closet Indexers Are Killing Active Investing (October 28, 2016).

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From Unprofitable To $115M AUM: Reinventing A 2nd Generation Advisory Business By Finding The Right Niche

Nerd's Eye View

Gary Siperstein, Jason's father, had built a successful investment management firm exclusively focused on managing portfolios of small-cap value stocks. The firm is now getting more clients that fit their niche (with 1-2 'ideal' prospects each month) and has increased its AUM from $55 million in 2016 to $115 million today.

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Nobody Knows Anything, FedWatch Edition

The Big Picture

Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests. (I have long been a fan of the concept of Strong Opinions, Weakly Held ).

Economics 363
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Sunday links: disregarding the facts

Abnormal Returns

awealthofcommonsense.com) How to dole out risk in your portfolio. grist.org) Anti-Asian hate crimes have been rising since 2016. Strategy Your investment strategy needs to work in all markets. humbledollar.com) AI is going to change just about every industry. nytimes.com) Regional banks are a linchpin for the economy.

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10 Quotes That Shaped My Investment Philosophy

The Big Picture

Hence, whatever your views are about the economy, markets, your portfolio, etc., We model the economy, we model markets, we create Monte Carlo simulations of how our portfolios will perform. Jane Street Trading managed to figure out state-by-state results in the 2016 presidential election minutes before the major cable channels did.

Investing 345
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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

Previously : The Timing Mistake: Thoughts & Pushback (August 26, 2020) Market Timing for Fun & Profit (August 28, 2020) The Art of Calling a Market Top (October 4, 2017) DOs and DONTs of Market Crashes (January 16, 2016) The Truth About Market Timing (March 13, 2013) Timing the Market?

Marketing 304