Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 5, 2025

percent in January, the highest reading in the history of that monthly data series, which goes back to the start of 2017. On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index ticked up to 6.9

Marketing 179

Marketing Marketing 179

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 22, 2024

We can assume the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will be extended. There were many promises made during the campaign that obviously will not happen (deport 20 million people, no taxes on tips, overtime or Social Security benefits, 200% tariffs, and on and on). 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.8% Q4-over-Q4).

Economics 290

Economics Economy Sales Commission 290

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

percent of its 2017 average, total IP in January was 2.0 Manufacturing output declined 0.1 percent in January, held down by a 5.2 percent decrease in the index for motor vehicles and parts. The index for mining fell 1.2 percent, while the index for utilities jumped 7.2 percent, as cold temperatures boosted the demand for heating.

Manufacturing 179

Manufacturing 179

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

percent, the highest reading in the history of that monthly data series, which goes back to the start of 2017. On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index now sits at 6.9

Marketing 147

Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 31, 2025

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through December 2024 (2017 dollars). The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent YoY, unchanged from 2.8 percent in November, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022. Click on graph for larger image.

Food 162

Food Economics 162

Calculated Risk

JULY 31, 2022

Here is a graph from Mortgagenewsdaily.com that shows the 30-year mortgage rate since 2017. After reaching 6.28% on June 14th, 30-year mortgage rates decreased to 5.13% on Friday according to Mortgagenewsdaily.com. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 2.66%, likely due to the weaker economy.

Economy 359

Economy 359

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 3, 2024

The abrupt firing this week of Dan Arnold, who took over as LPL's CEO in 2017 and once told the firm’s advisors that his mission was about “taking care of you, so you can take care of your clients,” is proving a shock.

Clients 296

Clients 296

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

Source : S&P 500s 2024 Rally Shocked Forecasters Expecting It to Fizzle By Alexandra Semenova and Sagarika Jaisinghani Bloomberg, December 29, 2024 See also : My Year-End Stock Market Forecast (December 10, 2024) All those 2025 mortgage rates forecasts are now wrong By Mike Simonsen Housing Wire, December 19, 2024 Previously : Coming March 18: (..)

Banking 345

Banking Planning Economics Investing 345

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 4, 2023

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: IICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Home prices continued sending mixed signals in October" A brief excerpt: And on Florida inventory: Florida has experienced some of the largest inventory gains in recent months • In fact, six of the nine markets seeing the strongest inventory growth over the (..)

Sales 311

Sales Marketing Marketing 311

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2025

I have known Scott Galloway since way before his first book, The Four , came out in 2017. He had been on MiB prior, and it was my pleasure to intro it at NYU Stern when it first was published.

Investing 147

Investing Investments Wealth Management Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

The following graph shows months-of-supply since 2017. in August 2017 and 4.3 Even though inventory has declined significantly compared to 2019, sales have fallen even more - pushing up months-of-supply. Note that months-of-supply is higher than the last 3 years (2021 - 2023), and above August 2019. Months-of-supply was at 4.2

Sales 279

Sales 279

Wealth Management

JANUARY 16, 2025

Graham, who joined Cambridge in 2017, stepped down from his role on Dec. The IBD is currently searching for a replacement.

264

264

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 28, 2024

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 is on the cusp of expiration. What that could could mean for you.

Taxes 263

Taxes 263

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 16, 2024

fortunesandfrictions.com) What happens if the 2017 tax cuts lapse. (apolloacademy.com) What really is the goal of portfolio diversification? rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Small advantages, consistently applied, compound over time. wsj.com) Nothing compares to the Nasdaq Internet bubble. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com)

Taxes 316

Taxes Portfolio Marketing Marketing 316

Wealth Management

APRIL 17, 2024

In 2017, Cheryl Canzanella lost her husband to an accidental overdose. Now, she’s working to educate advisors on how they can help families ripped apart by the opioid crisis.

Education 264

Education 264

Calculated Risk

JUNE 20, 2024

YoY, but still down almost 34% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Meanwhile, newly listed homes remained approximately 22% below pre-pandemic (2017 to 2019) levels. What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory.

Sales 290

Sales Marketing Marketing 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 23, 2025

compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For December, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 22.0% YoY, but still down 15.7% above year-ago levels.

Numbers 147

Numbers Sales Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2024

YoY, but still down almost 38% compared to March 2017 to 2019 levels. compared to what was typical in 2017 to 2019. • What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 25.0%

Sales 290

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 290

Calculated Risk

MARCH 18, 2025

percent of its 2017 average, total IP in February was 1.4 The output of manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.4 The index for mining gained 2.8 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization stepped up to 78.2 percent , a rate that is 1.4

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 13, 2023

And below is a table showing the ten most common ages in 2010, 2021, and 2030 (projections are from the Census Bureau, 2017 ). Note that the largest age group is in the early-to-mid 30s. There is also a large cohort in their early 20s. Note the younger baby boom generation dominated in 2010.

Economy 363

Economy Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2022

percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in September was 5.3 In September, manufacturing output rose 0.4 percent after advancing a similar amount in the previous month. The index for mining moved up 0.6 percent, and the index for utilities fell 0.3 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved up 0.2

Manufacturing 362

Manufacturing 362

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2024

million SAAR in November 2017, 2018, and 2019. The big story for November was that existing home sales increased year-over-year (YoY) for the second time since July 2021 (October was the first). However, sales in November, at 4.15 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) were still historically low. Sales averaged about 4.5

Sales 147

Sales Marketing Marketing 147

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Treasury Bond (May 19, 2016) Last Call for 50-Year Treasury Bonds (March 16, 2017) Deficit Spending Should Be Counter-Cyclical Not Pro-Cyclical (August 28, 2017) Can We Please Have an Honest Debate About Tax Policy? This is what happens to nations governed by 535 innumerate asshats… Previously : Time for a 50-Year U.S.

Government 334

Government Economics Taxes Budgeting 334

A Wealth of Common Sense

MARCH 16, 2025

Coming into 2025 the S&P 500 had just two down years out of the past 15: 2010 +14.8% 2024 +24.9% We were all probably a little spoiled. Regardless of the reason for the recent swoon, we were due.

116

116

Wealth Management

FEBRUARY 29, 2024

The agency this week is sending letters to target 125,000 cases of taxpayers with incomes of more than $400,000 who didn’t file returns between the years 2017 and 2021.

Taxes 263

Taxes 263

Calculated Risk

APRIL 14, 2023

percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in March was 0.5 In March, manufacturing and mining output each fell 0.5 The index for utilities jumped 8.4 percent, as the return to more seasonal weather after a mild February boosted the demand for heating. percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved up to 79.8

Manufacturing 354

Manufacturing 354

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 6, 2023

Previously : Vanguard’s Tim Buckley: The Complete Interview (August 1, 2017) Meet the Man Who Is Going to Run Vanguard. Bloomberg, July 25, 2017) Vanguard Group (all columns & pods) The post Masters in Business Live With Vanguard’s Tim Buckley appeared first on The Big Picture. It should be very informative.

Investing 277

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 277

Calculated Risk

APRIL 26, 2024

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through March 2024 (2017 dollars). The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent YoY , unchanged from 2.8 percent in February, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022. Click on graph for larger image.

Food 324

Food Taxes Economics 324

Calculated Risk

APRIL 11, 2024

YoY, but still down almost 38% compared to March 2017 to 2019 levels. compared to what was typical in 2017 to 2019. • What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 30.4%

Sales 259

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 259

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2025

percent of its 2017 average, total IP in December was 0.5 Manufacturing output rose 0.6 percent after gaining 0.4 percent in November. The indexes for mining and utilities climbed 1.8 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively, in December. percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization stepped up to 77.6 percent , a rate that is 2.1

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing 147

The Big Picture

JANUARY 25, 2023

Sources : “Study sheds light on cognitive dissonance in active management Robin Powell TEBI, January 25, 2023 Active fund managers and the rise of Passive investing: epistemic opportunism in financial markets Crawford Spence, Yuval Millo, James Valentine Kings College, 06 Jan 2023 Understanding Communities of Practice: Taking Stock and Moving Forward (..)

Management 306

Management Investing Investments Financial Market 306

Calculated Risk

JUNE 18, 2024

percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in May was 0.4 Manufacturing output posted a similar gain of 0.9 percent after declining in the previous two months. The index for mining increased 0.3 percent in May, and the index for utilities advanced 1.6 percent higher than its year-earlier level. percent in May, a rate that is 0.9

Manufacturing 293

Manufacturing 293

Calculated Risk

JULY 18, 2024

compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Broadly speaking, the number of new homes for sale remains historically low and is still below the 2017-2022 levels, even with recent improvements. What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. YoY, but still down 32.4%

Sales 262

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 262

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 25, 2024

below similar weeks in 2017 to 2020. • compared to similar weeks in 2017 to 2020. Should the uptick in new listings persist, the added inventory would greatly improve availability and affordability heading into the spring homebuying season but overall inventory is still 37.5% from one year ago.

Sales 277

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 277

Calculated Risk

MAY 16, 2024

percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in April was 0.4 Manufacturing output decreased 0.3 percent; excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output edged down 0.1 The index for mining fell 0.6 percent, and the index for utilities rose 2.8 percentage point lower than its year-earlier level.

Manufacturing 286

Manufacturing 286

Wealth Management

FEBRUARY 6, 2023

Preparing to celebrate its 50th anniversary this year, MAI Capital Management has grown by at least 170% since 2017 while maintaining an impressive level of client service, adding capabilities and developing a strong acquisition model.

Management 246

Management Clients 246

Calculated Risk

APRIL 6, 2023

While newly listed homes are increasing for the spring season, this seasonal uptick remains lower than all previous years on record since 2017. This past week, the gap from last year increased slightly but has remained in the -20% to -22% range for the past three weeks.

Sales 363

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 363