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By Ryan Krueger At a 4% initial withdrawal rate, the odds of nearly depleting the portfolio are equal to the odds of growing it by more than 800% By Michael Kitces The most expensive fund in the top ten inflows for 2018 charges 15 basis points By Ryan Kirlin Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.
As you can see from the chart below, there have been no shortage of issues and events to worry about over the last 15 years (2007 – 2022): 2008-2009: Financial Crisis 2010: Flash Crash (electronic trading collapse) 2011: Debt Ceiling – Eurozone Collapse 2012: Greek Debt Crisis – Arab Spring (anti-government protests) 2012: Presidential Elections (..)
On the surface this sounds scary, but do you remember what happened the last time the Fed tapped the interest rate brakes during 2015 – 2018? Despite the Fed raising interest rates from 0% to 2.5%, the stock market increased dramatically over that timeframe.
Many people have short memories and forget the Fed hiked interest rates 10 times from the end of 2015 through 2018. In the face of this scary period, the stock market (S&P 500) still managed to approximately climb a respectable +22% (albeit with some volatility).
THE “JAPANIFICATION” QUESTION Investors who were active in the late 1980s will recall that asset prices in Japan reached extreme levels as money poured into the country from all over the world, propelled by extraordinary economic growth. Census Bureau estimates that population growth in 2018 (0.6%) was the lowest since the 1930s.
Investors who were active in the late 1980s will recall that asset prices in Japan reached extreme levels as money poured into the country from all over the world, propelled by extraordinary economic growth. Census Bureau estimates that population growth in 2018 (0.6%) was the lowest since the 1930s. CRUMBLING FOUNDATION.
Consider how we defined investment risk in our 2018assetallocation publication, Confronting the Unknown: “The probability that a portfolio will not meet an investor’s needs.” ILLIQUIDITY IMPACTS These dynamics have dramatically shifted the liquidity landscape across financialmarkets. 10/15/2014 10-Yr U.S.
Consider how we defined investment risk in our 2018assetallocation publication, Confronting the Unknown: “The probability that a portfolio will not meet an investor’s needs.” These dynamics have dramatically shifted the liquidity landscape across financialmarkets. Source: BLOOMBERG. . ILLIQUIDITY IMPACTS.
If you recall, back in 2018, vol Mageddon, he was on the right side of that trade, made hundreds of millions of dollars for his firm in identifying a structural problem that was about to blow up. But before I leave the teal macro, I gotta ask you about the famous Vage trade in 2018. Tell us a little bit about that trade.
Just background, Barry, when I moved here five years ago this year in 2018, we had barely no relationships in North America. RITHOLTZ: (LAUGHTER) CHABRAN: And find a reason why they would allocate there. So I think we’ve now entered a period where we have to swallow this whole mispriced, over-levered assets out there.
So if you think about just private equity, the amount of capital raised since 2017 is basically it doubled the size of the private equity market. Think about what, how we were, we were geared in 2017, 2018, 1920. I don’t read 01:12:06 [Speaker Changed] A lot that has to do with financialmarkets. This, right?
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