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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 298
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Question #1 for 2023: How much will the economy grow in 2023? Will there be a recession in 2023?

Calculated Risk

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. Or will the economy lose jobs? 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 278
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Countertrend ?

The Big Picture

When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. The alternate periods of time are Secular Bear Markets: The economy is fraught with weakness, poor consumer spending, and negative job growth. Not So Fast (April 3, 2020).

Economy 328
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Question #1 for 2024: How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024?

Calculated Risk

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 200
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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • How State Street Has Used AI to Find ‘Hidden Gems’ Since 2018 : Natural-language processing used in stock picking: Bartolini Wanted something forward-looking, dynamic, he says of the ETF. But instead of cracking, some data point to an economy that’s thriving. ( Bloomberg ) • What Recession?

Economy 283
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The Great Resignation Is Long Over

The Big Picture

Consider these columns going back to 2013 pointing out the foolishness of tax-payer subsidized corporate welfare queens (2013), and why median wages were rising ( 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2018 , 2019 ). This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 331
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How State Street Has Used AI to Find ‘Hidden Gems’ Since 2018

Wealth Management

billion SPDR S&P Kensho New Economies Composite ETF uses natural-language processing in its portfolio construction.

Economy 147