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The Great Resignation Is Long Over

The Big Picture

Consider these columns going back to 2013 pointing out the foolishness of tax-payer subsidized corporate welfare queens (2013), and why median wages were rising ( 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2018 , 2019 ). By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 331
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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?

The Big Picture

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. 2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked.

Marketing 336
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Market Commentary: Dow Hits 40,000 As Inflation Numbers Improve

Carson Wealth

April inflation data confirmed there is no need to panic about the first-quarter numbers. Despite the path of the economy, inflation, the election, geopolitics, or the Fed’s actions, what matters at the end of the day is what markets do. That’s the slowest pace since August 2021 and not far above the 2018-2019 average of 3.6%.

Numbers 97
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Market Commentary: Strong Jobs Report Gets the “Good News Is Bad News” Treatment

Carson Wealth

Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. If the underlying economy is sound, pullbacks like this can actually be a positive for the longer-term health of the market. Monthly numbers can be noisy and so a 3-month average is helpful.

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At the Money: Is War Good for Markets?

The Big Picture

So what were the numbers like after World War 1 and after World War 2? Jeff Hirsch : The numbers, it was about just around 500 percent, 517%, 521%, right in the just over 500%. And the Dow didn’t actually hit that number until, uh, it was July of 1992, but the S&P had the 500 percent move-in. Q4 2018, 19.9%.

Marketing 317
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Market Commentary: Stocks Hit New Highs Amid a Year of Milestones

Carson Wealth

Optimism over lower taxes, a stronger economy, animal spirits, and strong earnings all were likely reasons for the surge. The economy created 227,000 jobs in November, close to expectations, which somewhat made up for the low 36,000 number in October (revised up from 12,000). 6 million level we saw in 2018-2019.

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Market Commentary: Slow Start For Stocks Despite Solid Job Gains

Carson Wealth

A “Goldilocks” December jobs report highlights sustained momentum for the economy as it continues its path to normalization. Goldilocks Job Numbers as Economy Powers Ahead The December payroll report was strong on the surface, with 216,000 jobs created last month and the unemployment rate firm at 3.7%. million, or 2.6