Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 9, 2025

A portfolio strategy that goes narrower than a couple of broad based index funds probably has some exposure to dividend stocks already so the decision about whether to make any changes can be moot, you already have some exposure. To be clear, Portfolio 3 does use the portable alpha approach, it is leveraged by 40%.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

AUGUST 5, 2022

In the last few blog posts we've looked at portfolios that seek to replace bonds with alts in such a way to reduce portfolio volatility the way bonds used to. In a couple of instances we've created portfolios that outperformed Vanguard Balanced Index (VBAIX) a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio and did so with a lower standard deviation.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

Torsten Slok blogged about how ineffective bonds have been in terms of providing any return or diversification benefits lately in the context of a 60/40 portfolio. The third portfolio is just the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX). Despite all the leverage, Portfolio 1 has a very smooth ride including up a lot in 2022.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 22, 2023

With that preamble, I started thinking about the 75/50 portfolio that I first started writing about during the Financial Crisis. I've mentioned 75/50 a couple of times in passing but the big idea was to create a portfolio that captures 75% of the upside of the equity market with only 50% of the downside. ARBFX 3.7%

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2025

To help us unpack this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Matt Hougan. I recall 10 years ago, crazy numbers, something like a lot of hacks, a lot of thefts. I think many of the skeptics don’t evaluate where the data is today because they’re taking a 2022 or 2018 or 2014 view of Bitcoin and crypto.

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Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

There are a lot of opportunities to diversify portfolios so they arent as concentrated as the S&P 500. Monthly numbers can be noisy and so a 3-month average is helpful. The hiring rate, which is the number of hires as a percent of the labor force, has fallen to 3.3%, the slowest pace since 2013 (outside of the Covid months).

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Brown Advisory

MARCH 30, 2018

Outlook for 2018 | Confronting the Unknown. Fri, 03/30/2018 - 11:57. As always, we want to avoid skewing portfolios toward a specific market scenario, because we can’t accurately predict which scenario will come to pass. the risk that a portfolio won’t grow quickly enough). The risks posed by illiquid investments.

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 9, 2024

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Professor Aswath Damodaran of NYU School of Business. purely by luck in 2018. I’m not saying intrinsic value is somehow a stable stagnant number. He is often referred to as the Dean of Valuation for his extensive work in the area.

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Brown Advisory

MAY 31, 2018

NOW 2018 | China and the Race for Artificial Intelligence achen Thu, 05/31/2018 - 09:20 The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the top technology stories in recent years. Not surprisingly, AI has also permeated public policy discussions, especially with the U.S. Sharpened by both the U.S.

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Brown Advisory

MAY 31, 2018

NOW 2018 | China and the Race for Artificial Intelligence. Thu, 05/31/2018 - 09:20. The race is on to lead the world in AI innovation, and a panel of experts at NOW 2018 offered insight on the competitive dynamics between the two global superpowers driving progress in AI. Sharpened by both the U.S.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 17, 2024

The idea of building an All-Weather portfolio of course has its appeal. The basic idea is to be much less volatile than the broad market or the typical 60/40 portfolio. It raises the question though of how much performance should an investor expect or be willing give up for the potential emotional comfort of an All-Weather portfolio.

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Investment Writing

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

Commentary about portfolio performance is part of every investment manager’s communications. It can consist of a single line giving portfolio returns. In this article, I review portfolio performance reports’ common components. In this article, I review portfolio performance reports’ common components. For example, “2.5%

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Brown Advisory

JUNE 14, 2018

NOW 2018 Conference: Our Investment Team’s Roundtable Recap achen Thu, 06/14/2018 - 10:27 The NOW conference is always memorable, but this year’s conference included some particularly compelling and provocative ideas. A good number of attendees recoiled in displeasure and an equivalent number perked up eagerly.

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Brown Advisory

JUNE 14, 2018

NOW 2018 Conference: Our Investment Team’s Roundtable Recap. Thu, 06/14/2018 - 10:27. I wanted to make sure we considered those ideas and their implications for the portfolios we manage for our clients, with truly open minds. A good number of attendees recoiled in displeasure and an equivalent number perked up eagerly.

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Darrow Wealth Management

JULY 1, 2024

Although a number of these provisions will negatively impact taxpayers starting in 2026, there a few changes that will be positive. In 2018, the brackets dropped to 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35%, and 37%. In recent years, a number of states developed a sort of workaround for business owners to navigate the SALT cap.

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Trade Brains

NOVEMBER 17, 2023

2018-19 7.04 -1.87 As we know from the data of previous years the margins are not stable due as their earnings were dependent on the number of contracts. Net Profit (Cr.) 2022-23 350.96 2021-22 161.5 2020-21 12.98 -2.37 2019-20 5.68 -3.18 in FY23 as compared to 34.08% in FY22. in FY22 to 0.46 Average (5 Years) 2.52

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 26, 2024

Although the way we articulate these ideas has changed we've basically been having the same conversation about trying to learn how to better diversify the portfolio without giving up too much of the equity market's ergodicity, it's inertia from going up more often than not. But what if the numbers were bigger?

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 11, 2024

The 1987 crash was partly attributed to selling portfolio insurance and there was the so called Volmageddon of 2018. 2018 was not 1987 and if there is another event where volatility ends up being a major determent then it will be different than the other two but with some overlap. There have been volatility events before.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 5, 2024

Starting back in 2007 or 2008 I wrote about his barbell portfolio idea that goes very high risk with 10% of the portfolio in search of asymmetric returns and then very conservative with the other 90%. The returns generated from the 10% could almost be enough for the entire portfolio. Here's an example of the effect.

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Carson Wealth

AUGUST 12, 2024

The late week rebound was supported by better economic data, including some good jobs-related numbers. Markets Perked Up on Better Job Numbers The August 2 jobs report already had markets primed for a potentially volatile week after job gains came in much weaker than expected and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%.

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Carson Wealth

JANUARY 8, 2024

Goldilocks Job Numbers as Economy Powers Ahead The December payroll report was strong on the surface, with 216,000 jobs created last month and the unemployment rate firm at 3.7%. In fact, the average annual number of jobs gained from 2010-2019 was 2.2 Another 20% gain is possible, however, as it has happened before four times.

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Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 9, 2024

The economy created 227,000 jobs in November, close to expectations, which somewhat made up for the low 36,000 number in October (revised up from 12,000). 6 million level we saw in 2018-2019. million level we saw in 2018-2019. A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.

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Trade Brains

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

According to the FY23 report, the total number of employees was 27,517. 2018-19 ₹ 9,812.51 ₹ 3,460.77 Particulars/ Financial Year RoE (%) Yes Bank IDFC First Bank 2022-23 1.80% 9.61% 2021-22 3.15% 0.62% 2020-21 -10.52% 2.69% 2019-20 -75.74% -18.45% 2018-19 6.35% -10.48% Average (5 Years) -14.99% -3.20% RoA was 0.20% and 1.03% in FY23.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 10, 2023

There was some interesting reading today looking at various portfolio construction and strategy issues. lagged far behind the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio. lagged far behind the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio. For the year, that 1.8%

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Brown Advisory

APRIL 22, 2020

Oil & Water: Fossil Fuel Divestment in Sustainable Bond Portfolios ajackson Wed, 04/22/2020 - 13:47 To many sustainable investors, owning fossil fuels is a black-and-white issue. The fossil fuel divestment “movement” has gained some momentum in recent years, and it is a topic we discuss with a growing number of clients.

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Brown Advisory

APRIL 22, 2020

Oil & Water: Fossil Fuel Divestment in Sustainable Bond Portfolios. The fossil fuel divestment “movement” has gained some momentum in recent years, and it is a topic we discuss with a growing number of clients. Should an investor looking for a fossil fuel-free portfolio consider this bond? Wed, 04/22/2020 - 13:47.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

AUGUST 8, 2022

The last couple of months we've been having a ton of fun looking at what are hopefully very sophisticated portfolios that involve terms like capital efficiency, return stacking and leveraging down (that term is a Random Roger original). Number 2 was to move from market cap weighting to minimum volatility equity exposure.

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Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Compare that to the 2018-2019 pace of 1.7% The consumption numbers quoted above came amidst surging student loan payments. A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. Excluding shelter, the consumer price index for all other items increased at an annual pace of 2.7%

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Brown Advisory

MARCH 9, 2018

We believe that our approach to building sustainable bond portfolios, in which we use green bonds alongside other bonds with attractive environmental and social characteristics, is an effective way to achieve our clients’ investment and sustainability objectives. It has the largest voluntary renewable portfolio of any U.S.

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Brown Advisory

MARCH 9, 2018

Income and Impact: Adding Green Bonds to Investment Portfolios. Fri, 03/09/2018 - 13:46. There are a number of reasons that clients may be interested in adding green bonds to their portfolios. It has the largest voluntary renewable portfolio of any U.S. Georgia Power’s green bond, issued in 2016, is a good example.

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The Irrelevant Investor

JUNE 15, 2019

In 2018, 52% of all participants at Vanguard were invested in a single target-date fund. In 2018, two out of three new participants were in plans that adopted automatic enrollment. These numbers are pretty encouraging. Six in ten people making more than $150,000 contributed the maximum account in 2018.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 9, 2024

Mutiny Funds put out a paper on the hows and whys of using alts for The Cockroach Portfolio that they manage and that we've looked at a few times. There are expectations embedded in these numbers. Merger arbitrage has been a pretty reliable way to reduce portfolio volatility and act like how investors hope fixed income will act.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

AUGUST 28, 2024

It seems to take a page from client/personal holding Standpoint Multi-Asset (BLNDX) by layering managed futures on top of, in this case, a passive 60/40 portfolio. NTSX is leveraged up such that 67% equals 100% into a 60/40 portfolio. I would also note that managed futures did worse in 2016 than 2018. Closing out with a theory.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 3, 2022

I think it is important to manage portfolio volatility to reduce the odds of panicking and reduce the odds that client income needs are disrupted. If I study and/or test drive 10 things and one makes into the portfolio like the Standpoint Multi Asset (BLENDX/REMIX) then I think that is a productive use of time.

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The Better Letter

MARCH 18, 2025

Nigl’s bracket finally went bust on game 50 (the third game on the second weekend) when three seed Purdue defeated number two Tennessee, 99-94, in overtime. And about 60 percent of national champions are one of the four number one seeds. A roulette wheel hitting the same number seven times in a row ( one in three billion ).

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 7, 2023

VBAIX is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio. In 2018, Portfolio 1 was down 18.62% while VBAIX was down 2.82% and VOO dropped 4.50%. For a $100,000 portfolio, a 5% weighting to GDE gives you 4.5% That was the best way I could figure to back test the idea, ASFYX is a client and personal holding. The results.

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The Irrelevant Investor

NOVEMBER 16, 2018

Things were going well for crude oil in 2018. I'm guessing that few, if any investors have the bulk of their portfolio in a strategy like this. If you have a 10% position that goes down 20%, it's a 2% drag on your overall portfolio. It's easy to get caught up in large numbers, but context is required.

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